Defeat the Empire

Los Angeles Angels

2006-08-12T15:43:00.000-04:00

Out west, I think a few teams are poised to make runs over the next few seasons: the Angels in the AL West and the Diamondbacks in the NL West. Both have incredible quantities of young talent. Look at the Angels' young pitching that is in the major leagues right now:

Jered Weaver, Age 23

7-0, 2.20 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .555 OPS allowed, 50 K 16 BB in 65.1 IP (MLB)
6-1, 2.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 93 K 10 BB in 77.0 IP (AAA)

Ervin Santana, Age 23

12-6, 4.14 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .691 OPS allowed, 105 K 50 BB in 147.2 IP (MLB)

Joe Saunders, Age 25

3-0, 1.67 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .670 OPS allowed, 18 K 10 BB in 27.0 IP (MLB)
10-4, 2.67 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 97 K 38 BB in 135.0 IP (AAA)

Not to mention John Lackey (age 27) who is having a career year.

What's the matter with Wags?

2006-06-27T14:18:00.000-04:00

There's been alot of sentiment going around in Metsville about how Billy Wagner's been a disappointment. This sentiment isn't entirely justified.

One of the most inaccurate ways to measure the effectiveness of a closer is to look at saves and save percentage. Case in point: in Wagner's largest meltdown of the season, on May 20th against the Yankees when he blew a 4-0 lead, Wagner didn't receive a blown save. But he did receive a blown save on April 26th at San Francisco, when he didn't give up an earned run.

Wagner has been worse than he was with Philadelphia, but not because he has more blown saves. The most concerning stats about Wagner are his walk rate and men on base/9 innings. Wagner has walked 17 men in 36.2 innings. That's just three less than he walked in 77.2 innings in 2005. He also has allowed 11.0 men on base per nine innings, a sharp increase from 7.3 in 2004 and 7.9 in 2005.

Still, there are encouraging signs. Wagner's stuff is as dominant as ever, as evidenced by his .191 batting average against, .260 slugging percentage against, and his 46 strikeouts in 36.2 innings. If and when he throws strikes, he's next to unhittable.

Now to point out how useless the saves stat is. Both ahead of Wagner on the NL saves leaderboard are Jason Isringhausen and Brad Lidge. Isringhausen has a 4.06 ERA, 14.5 men on base/9 innings, and a .420 slugging percentage against. Lidge has a 5.55 ERA, 13.9 men on base/9 innings, and a .387 slugging percentage against. Would you honestly rather have either of these guys over Wagner?

So while Wagner has had his share of meltdowns and problems throwing strikes, he remains an above average closer. All Mets closers, dating back to Armando Benitez and Braden Looper, have lived in the shadow of the best closer ever, Mariano Rivera. That's why it always seems the Mets have terrible pitchers closing out games. This simply is untrue, as Benitez was an above average closer for his whole tenure here, Looper was an above average closer in 2004, and Wagner is an above average closer in 2006. Be patient.

Please Note That...

2006-06-20T22:33:00.000-04:00

...the St. Louis Cardinals aren't built all that well for a postseason series.

Tonight, they're in the middle of a massive drubbing courtesy of the defend champion White Sox. Mark Mulder got rocked. He came into the game 6-4, 5.32 with an opponents' batting average of .296 and an opponents slugging percentage at a very poor .510. It got worse against the ChiSox, as he allowed 9 ER, 10 H, and 2 HR and recorded just 7 outs. This raised his ERA to a lofty 6.09.

The rest of the St. Louis starters behind unquestioned ace Chris Carpenter scare nobody. Sidney Ponson had a run at a renaissance earlier in the season, but has since fallen off a table and looks to be temporarily relegated to the bullpen. Jason Marquis has been solid to this point, but the fact that he has more BB's than K's is a troubling harbinger that may catch up with him soon. And Jeff Suppan is what he is: Steve Trachsel, but worse.

The Cards do have a very impressive rookie pitcher in Adam Wainwright, who has worked out of the bullpen. My friend, a Cardinal fan, wants Wainwright to replace Jason Isringhausen as the team's closer. The team likely would be better served with Wainwright in the rotation, and that day may not be far off. Mulder isn't going anywhere, but Suppan might get bumped and Ponson might already have been. Wainwright would be an instant upgrade over either of those two, or at least so it seems. The Cards' other top prospect is Anthony Reyes, a pitcher, who will likely see action in the rotation again soon. Reyes has posted an impressive 2.49 ERA in 25.1 career MLB innings.

While the Cards may look to rookies to stabilize their rotation, the Mets already have. Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine have hit rough patches here in June, but the team still wins more often than not when the two pitch. And the bottom three; Orlando Hernandez, Alay Soler, and Steve Trachsel, have stepped up considerably. Soler looks like a workhorse, middle-of-the-rotation type starter and has pitched wonderfully in his 5 starts. El Duque has pitched to a 3.91 ERA with the Mets after posting a 6.04 ERA with Arizona. And Trachsel, who I left for dead earlier in the year, has strung together some solid, keep-the-team-in-the-game outings and now has won three straight starts.

It's easy to slug your way into the playoffs, but it doesn't work that way once you get there. The Cards may learn that this October if they face the Mets, who look to have the current edge among National League superpowers into June of 2006. But look out for the Houston Astros. If they make the playoffs, which is hardly a give at this point, they can be dangerous. If Andy Pettitte gets back on track (and it looks that he has begun to do so), Roy Oswalt remains Roy Oswalt, and Roger Clemens picks up where he left off in 2005, the Astros could defeat either NL superpower in a short series and claim a second straight pennant.

Big Red Machine

2006-06-19T22:02:00.000-04:00

Hell, sometimes, a pitcher just shuts you down, and one of the National League's best did so to the Mets tonight. But tonight was a bit more frustrating, for a variety of reasons.

First, I didn't know who to root for in the Philly/Yankee game. I still don't. The Phillies are way back in the NL East as of now, but I like that 10-game loss column cushion. Yet, the instinctual hatred of the Yankees usually got the best of me as I flipped to YES between innings of the Met game.

Second, Arroyo should be in Boston. The trade dealing him for Wily Mo Pena was retarded, I said that at the time, and I'll say it again. Granted, Arroyo's ERA wouldn't be 2.47 if he was dealing in the AL East, but he'd still probably be Boston's best starter. He'd certainly be a marked improvement over some of the retreads that have taken the hill for Beantown in '06.

And third, I hate the bunt in the first inning with Reyes on second and nobody out. Why hand a pitcher an out when he hasn't proven he can get one? And why his Lo Duca second in the order if he can't be trusted to swing away in the 1st inning? Lo Duca hardly ever strikes out and can hit the ball to the right side on cue, so it makes little sense to me to bunt, give away the out and take any any chance of a base hit from Lo Duca.

I might catch some flak for this, but I don't like Lo Duca. He entered tonight's game with a hitting percentage line of .280/.325/.385. (All three are a tick lower after an 0-for-3 from him tonight.) The last two, which incidently are the most important two, indicate Lo Duca is below league average in slugging percentage and on base percentage. There's absolutely no reason for a 34-year-old with no speed and a .320 OBP to be batting second. I don't want to hear BS about how he can take a pitch for Reyes to steal, either; that isn't an instinctive skill, and can be learned by just about any baseball player within a few ABs.

But hell, we're still 43-26 and in the driver's seat. It's just that we could be and should be better.

Tiger Slam

2006-06-17T23:26:00.000-04:00

A long time ago, a now over-the-hill golfer name Eldrick won four major championships in a row. No, due to a technicality, it wasn't a grand slam, but he still held all four titles at the same time.

And at that time, Phil couldn't win shit. He'd come close, he'd have four foot puts for birdie lined up at Augusta, but he wouldn't come through. He was a loveable loser, like the Chicago Cubs or the English World Cup team.

But here in contemporary 2006, tables are turned. Instead of chasing down a major championship, Eldrick is on a bed somewhere with Elin Nordegren watching the people's champion chase down a third consecutive major title.

Of course, we've got some golf left to be played. But who honestly doesn't think Mickelson's going to win this golf tournament? He's 3-0 in majors when leading or having a share of the lead entering the final round, and he's tied now with Kenneth Ferrie of England at +2. Oh, and an European hasn't won this tournament since 1970, a stat stacked against the volatile Ferrie.

The good golfers are further back in the field. Vijay Singh is a +5, three off the pace, and Jim Furyk is at +6. Those two guys have the ability to mount a charge.

But, hell, who doesn't think Phil's going to win at this point? Quite a role reversal fron four years ago, when I followed Phil around Bethpage when he couldn't quite catch Eldrick for an elusive first. Here in '06, he's five rounds away from the Tiger Slam.

Go Phil!

Thoughts

2006-05-03T12:06:00.000-04:00

Time to mark down some thoughts I have now...

-SI took a poll of the most overrated players in baseball... Carlos Beltran is second behind Derek Jeter on the list, which is unsurprising as Beltran has been really awful in his seven months as a Met; also in the top 10, however, are Johnny Damon and Alex Rodriguez, meaning the top three hitters most nights in the Yankee batting order are viewed as overrated by their peers. Damon and Jeter don't surprise me all that much, but A-Rod is possibly the best hitter of this generation and a sure-fire hall-of-famer, as well as a decent shot to break Hank Aaron's HR record of 755..

-Alot of people have said the Mets have paid their way out of last place, mainly through signing high-priced free agents such as Pedro, Carlos, and Wagner; but the Mets 2006 payroll is actually a few notches below the $104 million it was in 2003...

-The Mets send Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine up against the Pirates, and combined they have 480 career wins... Pirate starters Ian Snell and Paul Maholm have six...

-Good pitching matchups in two games today, first it's John Smoltz and Brett Myers at Turner Field, and then it's Roy Halladay and Josh Beckett at Fenway...

-The Red Sox have a good record at 15-11, but they've been outscored this season. They haven't been outscored this late in the season since 1996, when the Sox went 85-77...

-The Key to Detroit's early success has been young pitching. RHPs Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander have both pitched great and the Tigers see them both as future aces. It's likely that the Tigers still will fall short of the postseason when all is said and done, but they have a solid young pitching core to build around...

Back Down to Earth...

2006-05-02T23:09:00.000-04:00

So, like my buddies in Baltimore tried to tell me, John Maine isn't any good. Can't win 'em all.

All Maine really did was fire 90 MPH fastballs at the plate. He really couldn't spot pitches, and he had bad control, as alot of fastballs seemed to sail on him way out of the strike zone. But the offensively-challenged Nats could only muster 4 runs off of him in 5.1 innings, which almost kept the Mets in the game.

If you watched the game, it's evident that Maine actually pitched worse than his finishing line indicates, which brings me to my next point. Sending him out there next Sunday afternoon against Atlanta could get pretty ugly. He seemed very nervous tonight in front of a relatively small crowd against a bad team; how will he respond when pitching against the Mets main rival with up to 50,000 in the crowd?

And Atlanta is getting back on track, and has closed the gap in the division to five games. (As has Philadelphia, but I'm not worried about them.) The Braves pulled off a comeback victory against surprising Colorado tonight at Turner, on the heels of a complete-game gem by Tim Hudson. Their pitching is getting in shape, headed by Smoltz and Hudson, and a solid bullpen of a bunch of effective no-names and Chris Reitsma.

The days of the 7-game lead are over. Not to say they won't ever be back; hell, we send Pedro and Glavine up against the worst team in the NL in the next two games and should sweep the miniseries. But anyone who thought Atlanta was just going to fade into the summer was severely mistaken. Atlanta will be in this thing to the finish. I still think they're going to end up winning this thing for a 15th straight time.

The one positive that came out of today's ballgame was the Willie got ejected. I can't remember this ever happening before in his seven months as Mets manger. He hardly ever shows any in-game fire (he probably gets this from Joe Torre, who sits on the bench like a log with a bat between his legs every game), but today he revealed he has a pulse.

It's gonna be a dogfight, Mets fans. Don't forget that.

The Maine Man

2006-05-02T00:04:00.000-04:00

The Kris Benson deal blew. And of course, it wasn't intended to do anything different, as the Mets were simply dumping Anna and $15 million. But a guy they specifically requested from the Orioles, John Maine, has a chance to make it a little less painful.

At first glance, Maine's 2005 MLB numbers look awful: 2-3, 6.30 with 64 baserunners in 40 innings and a 1:1 BB:K ratio. But up until his last three starts, Maine was very effective; he had a 3.27 ERA going into a September start at Yankee Stadium. He then hit a brick wall, and also got rocked against the Red Sox and Tampa Bay.

Why did Maine crash? My best guess is fatigue. At that point, with AAA and MLB combined, Maine was approaching 160 innings pitched. That's hardly a daunting task, but it dwarfed any other total Maine posted as a pro. Also, facing the Yanks and Sox is a tough task for any pitcher, let alone an Oriole. At that time, Baltimore was fielding a AAA team plus Miguel Tejada, while the Yanks and Sox were fighting for their playoff lives.

A refreshed arm and a move to the National League and Shea Stadium could do wonders for Maine, who will turn 25 next Monday. He throws four pitches, although none extraordinary, and his fatball can hit the low-90s. He's pitched very well at Norfolk thus far, with a 2.63 ERA in four starts and just 26 baserunners in 24 innings. He's easily been the best starter on a struggling Tides team in '06. (Struggling except of course except for Lastings Milledge, who was hitting .357/.500/.524 with 7 steals heading into play on Monday.)

If he can reach his full potential, Maine projects as a Steve Trachsel/Brian Bannister type pitcher, a guy who can contribute six solid innings towards the back of a major league rotation. In 1999 and 2000, the Mets found guys to do this such as Orel Hershiser in 1999 and Glendon Rusch in 2000.

Maine will get his crack on Tuesday.

2009

The Mets are scheduled to move into their new park in 2009. A solid young core could accompany them. Check out the projected 2009 New York Mets:

SS: Jose Reyes
3B: David Wright
OF: Lastings Milledge
OF: Carlos Beltran
OF: Xavier Nady
SP: Mike Pelfrey
SP: Philip Humber
SP: Brian Bannister
SP: Aaron Heilman
SP: Scott Kaz...uhhhh...

The point is, the Mets have a solid young core as well as the veteran stars such as Carlos Delgado, Pedro, and Ponce de Tom Glavine. We could have a solid 5-6 years of winning baseball on our hands if we don't screw it up.

Try Again

2006-04-27T10:34:00.000-04:00

Hell, the west coast is always tough. Taking 4 of 7 out there isn't bad, especially 2 of 3 at former Pac Bell Park, where the Mets win about 20% of the time.

Turner Field is tougher.

The Mets got Atlanta at Shea about ten days ago, and despite Atlanta having Chipper Jones, Edgar Renteria, and Marcus Giles out of the lineups, the only win the Mets could muster was when Pedro Martinez opposed Jorge Sosa.

So as other fans cry "SWEEP!", I sing a different tune: win one game.

Last year, the Mets went 1-8 at Turner Field, the lone being being a dramatic comeback in the sixth game of the season. That's a winning percentage of 11%. If the Mets can go 3-6 at Turner this year, that's a 33% winning percentage and a large improvement over 2005.

The Mets made a smart move in the leadup to this series, using a scheduled off day to their advantage. Pedro will go Friday on five days rest, then Tom Glavine on four days rest, and Sunday will be Steve Trachsel on four days of rest. Victor Zambrano is skipped, which is good on many levels: a) he's bad and throwing him up against the Braves symbolizes a white flag, and b) Trachsel and Glavine are better on four days rest than on five.

The Braves will pitch two of their best three pitchers on Friday and Saturday in John Smoltz and John Thomson, and Kyle Davies is scheduled to throw on Sunday.

Decline

2006-04-18T21:40:00.000-04:00

If we all thought through it logically, we could have come to this conclusion.

A 41-year-old power pitcher with back and knee problems, moving from the worst hitting division in the majors to the best, and also going to the crucible of Yankee stadium?

The decline that was inevitable wasn't even mentioned. Nobody called in on WFAN the day the deal went down to bring Johnson to the Yankees, that he wouldn't be as good has he had been for all those years in Arizona.

Johnson is hardly a liability, he's simply inconsistent and a few steps below the level of an ace. He started '06 with three decent starts, but left the last against Kansas City with "shoulder stiffness." And tonight against Toronto, after being staked to a 4-0 lead in the first inning, he simply was clobbered.

It's unlikely the shoulder injury is bad enough to put Johnson on the DL, but instead, it's a harbinger. Now at 42, he's going to come down with aches and pains that cause him to miss a start here and there, and limit his effectivness in other outings. Instead of skipping Shawn Chacon and adjusting the rotation so Johnson can come back on four days rest, the Yankees should start treating Johnson like the Mets do with Pedro Martinez; instead of running the Big Unit out there for 35 starts a year, they should give him an extra day off here and there and have him start 31 or 32 games instead. It's worked wonders for Pedro, who's dominated since moving to the National League.

Lastings: Lastings Milledge entered play Tuesday batting .357/.451/.595 with a HR and 4 RBI, as well as three steals at AAA Norfolk thus far. If Cliff Floyd continues to struggle in left field, or if either Floyd or Beltran get hurt during the summer, Milledge might show at Shea sometime in 2006. He's just about ready.

Shades of '86

2006-04-16T19:21:00.000-04:00

Everbody knows most of the '86 story. They know the 16-inning game six in Houston, the two-out rally in game six of the world series, and Jesse Orosco throwing his glove up in the air in celebration at the conclusion of the World Series. But to really understand the Mets' dominant and magical run in 1986, you have to go back to April and a series at the St. Louis Cardinals.

In 1985, the Cardinals won the NL East, edging the Mets by 3 games. This included a come-from behind win on October 3rd of that year, in a game that would have vaulted the Mets into a first place tie had they won. But they didn't, and lost an oppurtunity to go to the World Series.

The next year, the Mets started off hot. Sitting at 7-3 and riding a five game winning streak, the Mets rolled into St. Louis to play the Cardinals in a showdown of NL East heavyweights. Down 4-2 in the ninth and facing dominant young closer Todd Worrell, George Foster led off for the Mets with a double before Ray Knight grounded out. Then, with one out, Howard Johnson (pictured) cranked a long home run to right field to tie it. The Mets would go on to win the Thursday night game in ten innings and sweep the four-game series. That put the Mets 4.5 up on the Cards and effectively ended the Cardinal season. It was the ultimate April "statement series."

How does this tie into the 2006 Mets? The Mets face the Braves this Monday-Wednesday, and go in 5 up in the loss column. This is a huge series for the Mets, as we try to end 14 years of Braves rule atop the NL East. The pitching matchup for Monday decisively favors the Mets, as it's Pedro v. Jorge Sosa (0-2, 11.37).

20 years is long enough.

Observations

2006-04-15T16:39:00.000-04:00

Starting 8-2 is nice, even after losing today behind an overrested Steve Trachsel. Some observations on the 2006 season thus far:

-Tom Glavine looks as good as I can remember him ever looking, maybe since 1998.
-Pedro is back. The toe isn't a concern, as I predicted.
-After watching a few tapes of him from last year in the minors, I said Brian Bannister reminded me of Mike Mussina. He's validating those lofty expectations.
-The bullpen has a chance to be real good, headed by Duaner Sanchez. Aaron Heilman and Billy Wagner aren't 100% in form yet, but they will be in time.
-Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano will give us some headaches. They are fifth-starter types. The offense can carry them to .500 records or slightly better, however.
-David Wright has a real chance at an MVP award this year, if the Mets can win the division.
-Jorge Julio and Jose Valentin shouldn't be on this team right now. Heath Bell can contribute more out of the bullpen than Julio. When you carry just six relievers, you can't afford to have one that completely sucks. Last year, the Mets carried two for a great portion of the season and paid for it. (Danny Graves and Dae-Sung Koo)

I could go on and on, but the point is made. The starting pitching is a weakness, as was projected, but if Pedro and Glavine both pitch like aces and Bannister continues on the path toward a possibly NL Rookie of the Year, Zambrano and Trachsel's inadequacies can be compensated.

Enter Sandman

2006-04-03T19:40:00.000-04:00

I turn on WFAN about 45 minutes after the Mets beat the Nats 3-2 at Shea, figuring to hear a little bit of a lovefest and some testimonies from fans in attendance about the wonderful experience they just had in being part of a sellout crowd. Instead, what do I hear?

Endless bickering about Billy Wagner's choice of "Enter Sandman" as his theme song when entering the game in the 9th inning.

It's an issue, of course, because it's Mariano Rivera's song that's played across town when he enters the game. But Mariano doesn't have the song trademarked or copyrighted, does he? He doesn't have an exclusive rights contract with Metallica. The song is available for use for ANYONE in baseball, and if Billy wants to play it en route to 40+ saves in 2006, more power to him.

Player of the Game, 4/3/06: Xavier Nady, RF. Nady went 4-for-4 with two doubles, an RBI and a run scored. His double in the fourth inning gave the Mets a 2-1 lead, and they would never trail.

We're Back

2006-04-02T22:00:00.000-04:00

So I got bored writing team previews. Shoot me.

Tomorrow I can go back to what I do best: writing about Met games.

Bring on Washington.

Today's Schedule

Nationals (Hernandez, 0-0, 0.00) @ Mets (Glavine, 0-0, 0.00), 1:10 PM

Red Sox (Schilling, 0-0, 0.00) @ Rangers (Millwood, 0-0, 0.00), 2:05 PM

Yankees (Johnson, 0-0, 0.00) @ Athletics (Zito, 0-0, 0.00), 10:05 PM

2006 Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

2006-02-24T16:23:00.000-05:00

The Brewers are a classic example of a struggling franchise. They haven't finished over .500 since 1992. But last year, for the first time since '92, they finished at .500. They have a great young collection of position players, and finally seem to be on the track towards respectability.

Prince Fielder, the son of former slugger Cecil Fielder, is one of the best prospects in baseball. The Brewers think so much of him that they dealt Lyle Overbay away to the Blue Jays to make room for the 21-year-old phenom. It's clear that he can hit; he smacked 28 home runs in just 378 AAA at-bats last year, with a line of .291/.388/.369. The only concerns with Fielder are his suspect defense and weight (260 lbs.), which has led some scouts to think he'd be better fit as a DH in the American League.

Another young stud will line up on the right side of the Brewer infield. Rickie Weeks, a second baseman, has drawn comparisons to Gary Sheffield at the plate and impressed many while starting last second. JJ Hardy will start at shortstop. Hardy struggled with the bat for most of 2005 but came on strong late, and the Brewers remain high on him.

The anchor of this lineup comes from the outfield. Geoff Jenkins is a powerful lefthanded bat and a long-tenured Brewer. Carlos Lee had a very good season last year after coming over from the White Sox for Scott Podsednik, driving in 114 runs. If Lee isn't traded (there are some rumblings about him being moved, as he's a free agent after the season,) he should continue to be productive. And Brady Clark, who was a scrap-heap type minor league veteran prior to his Milwaukee renaissance, will hit leadoff. He has posted OBP's of .385 and .372 in 2004 and 2005, respectively.

The main hole in this team is the mediocre pitching staff. Ben Sheets is a true ace and isn't a question mark. Chris Capuano and Doug Davis, a pair of soft-tossing lefties, are slotted next in the rotation. Capuano's success in 2005 was suprising, as he started 35 games and won 18. Davis also is solid, as evidenced by his 3.39 and 3.84 ERA's the past two years. Tomo Ohka will by the number four starter, and keep the team in games. A battle will be staged for the fifth slot in the rotation between Dave Bush, Dana Eveland, and Rick Helling. Eveland is the favorite to win. Derrick Turnbow is an intimidating closer that came from nowhere, and Dan Kolb has been brought back to set him up after Kolb's atrocious 2005 with Atlanta. Jose Capellan also will pitch in key situations in a bullpen that is weak outside of the closer's slot.

The Brewers have a very good shot at cracking the .500 mark for the first time in 14 years. If the young players continue to get better, and the pitching remains, solid, second place in the division isn't impossible. Outlook: 4th Place, NL Central

2006 Outlook: Chicago Cubs

2006-02-24T15:48:00.000-05:00

When you haven't won a World Series in nearly a century, it's painful to watch any team parade around after reaching baseball's pinnacle. But it's even more painful to watch your hated crosstown rivals celebrate.

That's what the Cubs had to endure last October, as the White Sox swept away the Astros to win the World Series. The Cubs went through another mediocre season filled with an assortment of injuries, which has become commonplace when talking about the talented, but underachieving and oft-injured duo of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.

Derrek Lee's breakout season was the only major positive to result from Chicago's 79-83 season. Lee contended for the triple crown for months, despite little protection from those around him in the lineup, before fading late. If the Cubs are to contend in 2006, Lee needs to duplicate his 2005 magic. Aramis Ramirez is the next best hitter in the lineup, a feared slugger who signed a lucrative extension last year that will carry him through 2009. The outfield was revamped, as the Cubs traded for Juan Pierre and signed Jacque Jones, and dealt the disappointing Corey Patterson and let Jeromy Burnitz walk. The top four in this lineup (Pierre, Todd Walker, Lee, and Ramirez) has a chance to be very good, but there's a massive dropoff in talent after that.

Wood, Prior, and Carlos Zambrano were supposed to be a monster top three that anchored this staff for a decade. Wood has been the biggest disappointment. He's again coming off of shoulder surgery and he may start the year on the DL or in the bullpen. Zambrano has been very good, and perhaps the most consistent and durable of the three, despite the tennis elbow he developed last year. Prior has been effective, but he's brittle, although not as much so as Wood. Greg Maddux returns for his 21st major league season, and is certainly on the decline but can still be effective towards the back of a rotation. The bullpen has killed the Cubs in past years (remember LaTroy Hawkins?), but they found a serviceable closer last year in former starter Ryan Dempster and signed him to an extension. They spend good money in the offseason to add some setup relief to the pen as well, bringing in Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry off of the free agent market.

While the Cubs look decent on paper, they always do, and it's hard not to imagine that a few key cogs will spend significant time on the DL. Also, Derrek Lee likely will not duplicate his monster 2005. They are only slightly better than they were last year and should battle the .500 mark for the duration of the season. Outlook: 3rd Place, NL Central

Port St. Lucie

2006-02-22T14:09:00.000-05:00

Enough with 'team outlooks' for a little while. Two spring trainings ago, we had Jason Phillips at first base, Karim Garcia in the outfield, and Scott Erickson battling for a spot in the starting rotation.

Let's take a moment to be thankful. Since that bleak time in February 2004, this team has improved tenfold. Think about this: we're the odds-on favorite to win the NL East. And, we're second only to the Cardinals in the NL Pennant odds. Around the league, the Mets are viewed as an elite team.

Of course, they aren't there yet. Guys have to step up, like the bum in the picture to the left, Carlos Beltran. If he can return to pre-2005 form, the Mets 3-4-5 in the lineup of Beltran-Carlos Delgado-David Wright will be among the best in the major leagues.

The roster and lineup are pretty much set, except for a few places, most notably second base, right field, and some slots towards the back of the bullpen. Now, let's break down the uncertainties and the position battles.

Second Base: Kaz Matsui v. Anderson Hernandez v. Jeff Keppinger v. Bret Boone

Matsui is the prohibitive favorite here, due to his massive salary of $7 million. Unless he is a grave embarassment in spring training or is dealt, he will start on opening day. That doesn't mean he has long-term security if he continues to suck. Anderson Hernandez, acquired from the Tigers in exchange for Vance Wilson last January, had a breakout 2005 in Binghamton and Norfolk. He hit very well at both levels, which was surprising considering his struggles with the bat during previous years, and has always had a stellar glove.

Jeff Keppinger won the AA batting title in 2004, a season in which he was dealt to the Mets along with Kris Benson. He was mashing last year at Norfolk before a dirty takeout slide ended his season. Keppinger is limited in terms of tools, but he is a hard-nosed player who compares favorably to a Ty Wigginton. Bret Boone, signed by the Mets to a minor league contract after the New Year, is unlikely to make the team. He hit just .170 with the Twins last season after being cut by the Mariners, and is widely viewed as finished.

Right Field: Victor Diaz v. Xavier Nady

Victor Diaz can hit, but he can't field. He always appears awkward in the outfield, fueling the views of scouts that say he's best suited to be a designated hitter in the American League. He's a fan favorite, however, with very good offensive potential, so he may get a chance to start. Xavier Nady came to the Mets from San Diego for Mike Cameron. Nady appears to be more of a role player than a starter, and he can also play the corner infield positions in addition to playing the outfield. Minaya has surprisingly dubbed Nady as part of the core of the future of the Mets, along with Jose Reyes and David Wright, so that possibly lends credence to the notion of Nady being the Mets right fielder come April 3rd. Still, Diaz remains the favorite.

Bullpen

Some spots in the pen are solidified, namely those of Billy Wagner, Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Julio, and Chad Bradford. Juan Padilla is also exceedingly likely to be included on the staff, due to his 1.49 ERA with the Mets last year. That leaves several guys competing for two spots. The likelyhood is one will be a lefthander, with Aaron Heilman (who has a changeup that was able to routinely retire left-handed batters) in the rotation and Wagner the only lefty in the pen. The problem is, the lefthanders the Mets have invited to camp are downright unimpressive; Matt Perisho was rocked by lefthanded batters last year, Royce Ring was in the Met management's doghouse by the end of 2005, and Darren Oliver was lit up in AAA. The righthanders competing for slots will be Heath Bell, Bartolome Fortunato, Japanese import Yusaku Iriki, John Maine, and Steve Schmoll (the throw-in from the Duaner Sanchez-Jae Seo deal). My best guess is that Ring and Bell will make the team out of the spring.

One last piece of good (but old) news: Carl Pavano can't throw off a mound for another week. He's certainly worth $40 million!

2006 Outlook: Houston Astros

2006-02-21T15:50:00.000-05:00

The Houston Astros will seemingly always find a way. Before the season started last year, I had them penciled in as a .500 team, or possibly even worse, due to the losses of Carlos Beltran, and Jeff Kent, as well as an injury to Lance Berkman that sidelined him for the start of the season. My prediction seemed to be validated when they started 15-30. But soon, the ship turned around, and the rotation of Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Andy Pettitte was shutting down offenses on a nightly basis. The stellar pitching led the Astros to their first ever National League title.

Due to their success last year with relatively no offensive production, I've tentatively kept them in second place in the NL Central for 2006. Clemens is no longer with the team, but he may re-sign with Houston come May 1. That leaves Pettite and Oswalt to head a significantly weaker rotation, which is filled out by the mediocre Brandon Backe and the unproven Ezequiel Astacio and Wandy Rodriguez. The bullpen remains stellar as ever, with Brad Lidge closing games. Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, and Russ Springer are the best in the business in the seventh and eighth innings, and they provide a great bridge from the starters to Lidge.

The problem remains the offense, which should be putrid as usual. Last year, Morgan Ensberg came out of nowhere and had an all-star caliber season. They need him to continue at last year's level of production, although that seems somewhat unlikely. Jeff Bagwell says he will try to play, but chances are he won't be able to man first base on a daily basis. Lance Berkman will have to carry this offense, plain and simple, if they want a chance to put up even three or four runs on a daily basis.

The Astros aren't as good as they were in the previous two years, as part of their core gets a bit older and their starting rotation takes a hit. Despite this, the pitching should be good enough to secure somewhere in the low-80s in wins and a second place finish. Outlook: 2nd Place, NL Central

2006 Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

2006-02-20T19:16:00.000-05:00

The Cardinals are becoming a model of consistency, one of the certainties in an otherwise uncertain baseball world. They've qualified for the postseason in five of the past six years, and won 100 games the past two. Despite a terrible season from Scott Rolen and nagging injuries from corner outfield veterans Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders, both of whom are no longer with the team, last year's Cards were able to go to the NLCS, where they would fall to the Astros.

Some of the players in St. Louis are new for 2006, but the premise is the same; build around a 3-4-5 in the lineup of Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, and Rolen, and plug in role players at the other positions than can contribute in ways other than hitting the ball out of the park. Sanders and Walker are gone this year, one to Kansas City and the other to retirement, and to replace Sanders in the lineup, general manager Walt Jocketty brought in Juan Encaracion from Florida. Encarnacion is gifted with great power, but he's been plagued in past seasons by lack of plate discipline and streakiness. Mark Gruzielanek, a player that came to the Cards off the scrap heap last offseason, is gone, and is replaced by either longtime minor-leaguer and former Rockie Aaron Miles, or Junior Spivey, who had his season with the Brewers last season wrecked by injury.

The pitching staff should be very strong, despite the defection of starting pitcher Matt Morris to San Francisco. Chris Carpenter won the NL Cy Young Award last year, although he clearly overachieved and also should have lost the award to Roger Clemens (1.87 ERA). Nevertheless, there's no reason to believe Carpenter can't at least pitch the way he did in 2004, when he went 15-5. Mark Mulder is up next, who unsurprisingly had an extremely solid year in 2005 (16-8, 3.64) and should post similar numbers. Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan are also slotted for the rotation. Both are righthanders who can keep the team in games and allow the powerful offense to win it. The fifth starter's job supposedly is going to be a competition between the often troubled Sidney Ponson and top prospect Anthony Reyes, but it's hard to envision a scenario where the Cards don't give the gig to Reyes coming out of spring training. Jason Isringhausen will be back as the closer, and setting him up is another former Met, Braden Looper. Looper struggled last year as the closer in Queens but reportedly pitched injured the entire season and had surgery early in the offseason.

The Cardinals once again should be a juggernaut, probably improving on last year's 100 wins assuming Scott Rolen is able to stay healthy. Despite what Vegas says, the Cardinals enter 2006 as the favorites to win the National League. Outlook: 1st place, NL Central

2006 Outlook: Florida Marlins

2006-02-20T16:49:00.000-05:00

Many people, including myself, were impressed by the Florida Marlins in the runup to the 2005 season. They had acquired Carlos Delgado and Al Leiter to complement strengths in the rotation and lineup. I even had them winning the National League, but my vision of the future was uncanny: "This could be Florida's last chance to win as a team, and much of their young core hits free agency and arbitration. Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, and Juan Pierre will see their salaries jump substantially after this year, and Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis will hit arbitration after 2006." (My words from February 2005.) Beckett and Burnett are now gone to the AL East, as is Delgado, and the rebuilding project in South Florida is fully underway.

At best, 2006 will be a rebuilding year for the Marlins. At worst, it will be a disaster. Outside of Cabrera and Willis, they have no proven major league caliber players in either the lineup or the rotation. Despite this, they seem to have a solid future based upon the slew of prospects they acquired in multiple trades. Studs Jeremy Hermida, who is homegrown, and Mike Jacobs, whow as acquired in the Delgado trade with the Mets, will hit in the middle of the Marlins batting order and provide power and protection for Cabrera. Hanley Ramirez, who came over from Boston in the Beckett deal, may get a chance to start in the middle infield by opening day, is a five-tool prospect who had a disappointing 2005. Eric Reed is Juan Pierre's replacement, and has a skill set similar to that of Pierre, who was traded to the Cubs. In short, this offense is young and raw, and will with little doubt struggle, but has great potential for future seasons.

The pitching staff is similar to the offense, in that it has one proven star (Willis), and several young guns with high ceilings. Youngsters Jason Vargas, Sergio Mitre, and Scott Olsen will start the year in the rotation, and likely will be joined later on by Yusmiero Petit, the other key piece from the Delgado deal. The bullpen is in a similar state, with stud prospects such as Travis Bowyer possibly closing games. Bowyer is unlikely to be ready at this point, but he's the best option the Marlins have after letting Todd Jones walk and trading Guillermo Mota and Ron Villone.

This team has a decent shot to lose 110 games. The crowds in South Florida will be miniscule, and rumors of relocation rampant. (Jeffrey Loria and other Marlins officals have already discussed the topic with the cities of Las Vegas, Portland, and Oklahoma City). The talent is there, but the time simply isn't now. Outlook: 5th Place, NL East

2006 Outlook: Washington Nationals

2006-02-20T16:07:00.000-05:00

In the first half of 2005, the Nationals were a capitivating national story. In their first year in DC, they were 20 games above .500, Chad Cordero was racking up saves, and they were proving the sabermetricians wrong by piling up one-run wins with consistency. But soon, the foundation fell in, and by the end of the season, the Nats were where everyone expected them to be -- last place.

Jim Bowden made a big move in the offseason, trading for Alfonso Soriano. He intended to move Soriano to the outfield, but Soriano has refused and likely will start at second base. Many feel the former Yankee and Ranger will be a bust, and with good reason; on the road in 2005, his hitting percentages were a terrible .224/.265/.374. Robert F. Kennedy Stadium is hardly a hitters' park, so Soriano should stuggle offensively.

If the Nationals are to have a chance in 2006, which is unlikely, the pitching will have to be as dominant as it was in the early going last year. Livan Hernandez, John Patterson, and Brian Lawrence (acquired from San Diego for Vinny Castilla) head the rotation, and Chad Cordero in the bullpen is a rock. The offense is at best, average, led by Jose Guillen, Nick Johnson, and Soriano. The Nats are putting alot of stock into 21-year-old third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who tore the league apart last year during a September call-up. His success led to the trade of Vinny Castilla early in the offseason.

The Nationals likely will be overmatched in this division, which contains the Mets, Braves, and Phillies. However, their solid pitching should keep them out of last place. Outlook: 4th Place, NL East

2006 Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

2006-02-15T20:40:00.000-05:00

In the early going in 2005, the Phillies appeared to be dead. They rested in last place in the NL East, as the only team under .500 in the division and were suffering from poor seasons from veterans like David Bell and Jim Thome, as well as some key injuries. But once June struck, the Phillies got hot, and thrust themselves into the playoff race with alot of help from young players, namely Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and and Robinson Tejeda.

The Phillies seem to be building their team around the right side of their infield, containing Utley and Howard. To make room at first base for Howard, they dealt Thome to the White Sox for Aaron Roward, who will start at centerfield. Rowand is a great defensive outfielder and also can contribute with the bat. With a lineup 1-8 of Jimmy Rollins, Rowand, Abreu, Utley, Pat Burrell, Howard, Mike Lieberthal, and David Bell, Philadelphia should be able to whack with the best in baseball.

The problem centers around the pitching. The rotation will contain three journeyman veterans in Corey Lidle, Jon Lieber, and Ryan Franklin, at least until Randy Wolf's return at midsummer. Ryan Madson may be shifted into the rotation, depending on what the Phils do with Robinson Tejeda, who had success last year as a starter. Young Brett Myers will be the ace of the staff after a breakout 2005 season.

The bullpen is also weak. Unable to win a bidding war with the Mets to retain closer Billy Wagner, the Phils signed aging Yankee setup man Tom Gordon to close. Philadelphia also whiffed in their pursuit of Braden Looper, and now are stuck with Arthur Rhodes and Ricardo Rodriguez as setup men.

In short, the Phillies are the NL East's version of the Yankees or Red Sox, but just not nearly as proficient. While the offense will score runs, especially at home, the pitching is simply too weak at this juncture to forsee this team making inroads into the postseason. Outlook: 3rd Place, NL East

2006 Outlook: New York Mets

2006-02-13T21:45:00.000-05:00

When Omar Minaya took the job as NY Mets general manager in October 2004, he was granted "full autonomy" by Fred Wilpon. Or, in other words, he was granted an open wallet, which has led to the signings of Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran, and Billy Wagner, as well as the trade for Carlos Delgado. These moves have positioned the Mets as the odds-on favorite in Vegas to win the NL East.

Still, many of Minaya's trades have been troubling. He swapped two top prospects, Yusmiero Petit and Mike Jacobs, to Florida in exchange for Delgado, who the Marlins had no choice but to deal. He traded for Paul LoDuca, who was at the bottom of the barrel last year among catchers in all-important OPS, instead of signing either Bengie Molina or Ramon Hernandez. And, he dealt starter Kris Benson, who was the Mets second best starter for months last year for reliever Jorge Julio, who is years removed from his last good season.

Despite the questionable trades, the Mets are infinitely better than they were when Minaya took over, and one cannot doubt his Latino pull over Martinez and Beltran as a factor in their decisions to come to Flushing Meadows. 2005 was a step in the right direction, but the attitude is now that it's time to win.

The starting rotation was very deep at the start of the offseason, but was weakened by the trades of Jae Seo and Kris Benson. The Mets starting five is now Martinez, who is battling a chronic toe injury; Tom Glavine, who will be 40 by opening day; Aaron Heilman, who has never had success as a starter in the majors; Victor Zambrano, who hangs under the cloud of Scott Kazmir; and Steve Trachsel, who is in decline and missed almost all of last year with a back injury. The staff is riddled with question marks.

The bullpen, which was the team's achilles heel in 2005, is improved, however. Billy Wagner should be dominant, provided he stays healthy, and Duaner Sanchez (acquired from L.A. for Seo) will be his primary setup man. The Mets have decent arms to pencil in around those two stalworts and can build a credible relief core.

The team's strength lies in the lineup. The 3-6 hitters, in no particular order, will be David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and Cliff Floyd, all of whom are capable of hitting .300/30/100. Jose Reyes should improve at the top of the order. The main questions are in right field and second base, where the Mets will either go with Victor Diaz or Xavier Nady in RF and perhaps give the untradeable Kaz Matsui a last chance to prove himself at second base.

The Mets are much improved from a year earlier, and in a weak NL, it's hard to find 4 teams who can post a better record than the Mets. Due to the unturnable tables of history, I still like Atlanta to take the divisional crown, but the Mets can win the Wild Card handily if some things fall their way. Outlook: 2nd Place NL East, NL Wild Card Winner

2006 Outlook: Atlanta Braves

2006-02-13T15:45:00.000-05:00

The first of my 30 team outlooks for 2006 with be the Atlanta Braves. Enjoy the next month.
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Every year, sportswriters fall into the same trap, and pick a team other than the Atlanta Braves to win the National League East. Peter Gammons and countless others did so last year by going with Florida, which would fall far short of Atlanta. And in 2004, the consensus pick to win the division was revamped Philadelphia, which held a lead into midsummer but in end watched Bobby Cox and co. leave them in the dust. I haven’t made the same mistake. Every year since 2001, I’ve gone with Atlanta, and it’s never failed.

The Braves have a potential chink in their armor now, as pitching coach Leo Mazzone defected to Baltimore during the offseason. Mazzone was credited with turning career after career around, including Jaret Wright, who imploded in the Bronx last year. He also made Jorge Sosa, an unknown acquired from Tampa Bay before 2005, a 13-game winner.

The top arms in the Braves rotation should be fine even without Mazzone’s tutelage. John Smoltz and Tim Hudson are proven ace-type pitchers atop the rotation. But after that, it goes downhill. John Thomson is a journeyman starter who was injured last year and has been mostly mediocre throughout his career. Then comes Sosa, who is unlikely to repeat his 2005 heroics, and Horacio Ramirez, a young lefty. Mike Hampton is out for the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Atlanta’s youth movement is most apparent in the bullpen and lineup. Jeff Francoeur took the world by storm last summer, and he joins Ryan Langerhans and Andruw Jones in a purely homegrown outfield. In fact, the only member of Atlanta’s projected starting lineup that is not homegrown is Edgar Renteria, acquired in a trade from Boston for stud third base prospect Andy Marte. Renteria was a major disappointment in his only season with the Red Sox, but the Braves hope a return to a warmer climate and smaller market will allow him to achieve the levels of production he enjoyed while thriving with the Marlins and Cardinals earlier in his career.

This roster is built around a few notable cogs in Andruw and Chipper Jones, Smoltz and Hudson, but for the most part is a collection of youngsters and journeyman veterans. Bobby Cox will have to work some magic to achieve lucky number fifteen, but history tells us there’s no reason to believe he won’t. Outlook: 1st Place, NL East

Redemption

2006-02-04T09:44:00.000-05:00

My first basketball pick was bad. But I'll try another, just don't bet the house on this one.

boston celtics (+3) over ORLANDO MAGIC

Don't ask me why, it's a gut feeling.

As for the Super Bowl, my gut is telling me Seattle for whatever reason.

Hah

2006-02-02T20:43:00.000-05:00

"Lock of the Century"?

Cleveland's getting fucked over. Don't ever pay attention to my basketball picks.

Lock of the Century

2006-02-02T17:30:00.000-05:00

I love to be involved in sports gambling. I'll have alot of money running through my hands come Super Sunday......

The point being, with little else to do, I've taken to makes some NBA picks. I hate the NBA, but what can you do? Here are my recent picks:

01/27: PORTLAND (+1) over new jersey WIN
01/27: PORTLAND/new jersey under 182 WIN
01/28: SEATTLE (-4.5) over new jersey WIN
01/28: LA CLIPPERS (-3) over denver WIN
01/28: GOLDEN STATE (-5) over portland WIN
01/28: GOLDEN STATE/portland under 192 WIN
01/29: sacramento (+1.5) over TORONTO WIN
01/30: san antonio (-6) over UTAH WIN
01/30: san antonio/UTAH over 177 loss

So I've gone a nice 8-1 thus far in my new hobby. Today's pick of the day:

cleveland cavaliers (+8) over MIAMI HEAT

Cavs enter on a seven game winning streak. If you're feeling frisky, take Cleveland moneyline (+300). But Cleveland +8 is easy money tonight.

Win Shares

2006-01-31T21:30:00.000-05:00

A win share is a sabermetric neo-stat created by Moneyballers to assess a players' value to his team. You'll find it detailed on many SABRSites, such as Baseball Propsectus and The Hardball Times. For an old, but good, explation of win shares, click here.

Supposedly, a good way to project a team's wins in the upcoming year is to add up all their players' win shares from the previous season. 2005 win shares can be found here.

Using this team projection formula, I have been able to estimate that the Yankees will win 105 games in 2006, the Mets 89, the Phillies 83, and the Braves 76. Take it for what it's worth.

I'll get to a few more teams in the next few days.

Yuksaku Iriki, Miracle Man

Above is NY Mets pitcher Yusaku Iriki, who Omar Minaya was so impressed by that he gave him a major league contract, thus losing Aarom Baldiris on waivers to the Rangers. Check out Iriki's website, and listen to the background music while you're at it.

End Of An Era

2006-01-29T17:55:00.000-05:00

Well, it ended in reality on October 2, but Mike Piazza is officially done as a Met as Ken Rosenthal reports Piazza has agreed to a deal with the San Diego Padres.

The Mets go to San Diego from April 20-23 (Thursday-Sunday) and host the Pads from August 8-10 (Tuesday-Thursday). I'll make a pilgrimage out to Shea that week to see Mike play one more time.

Farewell, Anna

2006-01-22T09:55:00.000-05:00

The Mets dealing Kris Benson to Balitmore for a retread reliever certainly isn't an attempt to make the team better. It's to, a) Dump $15 million, and b) Dump Anna Benson.

Sure, Anna's a right-wing nut (read some of the pro-gun rants on her website) who's a loose cannon and will be in Playboy by this time next year. But Kris Benson is a decent starter, which isn't easy to come by these days, and to only receive Jorge Julio (5.90 ERA in 2005) and John Maine (6.30 ERA in 2005) is a travesty.

We're a New York team, right? We generate boatloads of revenue, we pour money into the team at every turn so Omar can make this team better. The idea isn't to have the team dump a decent starter just to save money and get rid of a divisive figure.

More than likely, every player involved in this trade will pitch poorly in 2006. Maine is unproven, Julio isn't any good, and Benson will struggle in Camden: he gave up 24 home runs in 28 starts, while in the National League and pitching at Grand Canyon East, Shea Stadium, for half of his starts. Now that he faces the Yankees and Red Sox every week in a bandbox, he will start looking like a slimmed-down, better-looking Sidney Ponson on the mound.

One positive to take from Julio, possibly, is his K:BB ratio. Statheads proclaim this the best measure of future performance, and Julio's was a very decent 58:24 in 2005. Maybe he'll get some people out at Shea.

Or more likely, not.

Farewell, Anna!

Rev It Up

2006-01-09T15:46:00.000-05:00

I walked outside today at about 10:00 AM, and I made an observation: it was goddamn warm. Now, it's only in the 50's today in suburban New York, but it feels warmer. The temperature, and the smell, made me think of something:

Baseball.

Now, writing about the offseason is a bore, and I don't have all that much time in the winter anyway (comparitively,) so I didn't write. But we're about to get started again for 2006.

What did 2005 hold for me, personally? It was tough. Emotionally, the toughest thing I've ever been through unfolded for me -- twice.

But baseball provided a salvation. The Mets were watchable again, for the first time in 5 years, and gave us some glimmers of hope. David Wright is wicked; Pedro looked like, well, Pedro; Beltran blew, but you can't win 'em all; and so on.

All signs point to 2006 being even better in Flushing. The bullpen is better, Pedro can't pitch in the WBC because of his toe, Wright and Jose Reyes are a year older, and so on.

The same can't be said about our associates up in Beantown, as the Sox are seemingly looking at a steep fall. Maybe even to third place in the AL East, after Toronto had a spendy offseason. But we'll root our asses off for them, because we're good people.

I'll be making some predictions after the offseason winds down and we hit February. They'll be done through our syndicate. I'll place that link in the NavBar, so nobody gets lost.

Get pumped for '06. It's coming.

Last Day of Sanity

2005-11-10T16:10:00.000-05:00

Today is the last day before the free agent period begins. Rumors have recently stirred about the following coming to the Mets via FA or trade:

-SP AJ Burnett
-C Ivan Rodriguez
-2B Alfonso Soriano
-1B Aubrey Huff
-RP Danys Baez
-RP Billy Wagner
-RP Tom Gordon

...and so on.

Personally, I want no part of Burnett or Soriano. Burnett will get a massive contract, probably more than Carl Pavano got. But AJ isn't even close to being worth it. He's a career sub-.500 pitcher, is injury prone, has never pitched a postseason game, and the list goes on.

Here's to hoping the Yankees sign the kid. He'll keep Pavano and Jaret Wright company when they make their monthly trip to see Dr. James Andrews.

I'm hoping we add Rafael Furcal, Ramon Hernandez, Billy Wagner, Tom Gordon, and maybe even Manny Ramirez and Kevin Millwood. Mike Jacobs should be given a shot at first base, and Soriano trying to hit in Shea Stadium could be a nightmare.

Let the fun begin.

Fallen Hero

2005-11-07T22:41:00.000-05:00

Wayne Chrebet is finished, as are the Jets.

Wayne will always be a NY Jet hero; he's he little engine that could, the local kid who rose up from Hofstra to be one of the best third-down receivers in the NFL. Time after time, concussion after concussion, he picked himself up and kept contributing.

But now, it's over.

It's fitting that Chrebet's last play as a Jet, and in the NFL was a third down sideline pattern that resulted in a first down. Despite being knocked unconscious in the course of the play, Chrebet hung on to the football and gave the Jets one last first down to remember.

Tight End Chris Baker was placed on IR today along with Chrebet. Baker has a broken leg; Doug Jolley will (finally) gt some reps at the TE spot.

With Vinny Testaverde hurt and ineffective, Herm Edwards anounced today that Brooks Bollinger will start Sunday @ Carolina.

Take care, Wayne. We love you.

It's Billy Time

2005-11-06T20:13:00.000-05:00

2005 was nice. But 2006 has to be better.

To make this team better, we have to take gambles. Omar made a couple of gambles last offseason, spending $172 million on Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. Well, half of it worked out, anyway.

This year's gamble has to be Billy Wagner.

Yes, he's 34; yes, he's an injury risk; yes, he has a history of blowing the big games; and yes, he'll command more money than a closer should ever dream about. But the Mets have to get this guy.

He'd give us the intimidating presence we've lacked at the back of the bullpen since Armando went off in September 2001. He'll shorten games to 8 innings. He'll end the blooper experiment.

The other target is Baltimore closer BJ Ryan. Ryan is younger, and more durable, but that's where his supremacy to Wagner ends. Wagner was better in every statistic in 2005; also, Ryan has yet to pitch in a meaningful baseball game, as a member of the lowly Orioles his whole career.

In the end, I think Omar will ink Wagner to a 3-year contract worth about $10 million per season.

Let's make the '05 offseason as magical as the last. Billy's a great start.

White Sox-Indians Preview

2005-09-19T16:04:00.000-04:00

If you're a baseball fan, you have to be interest in the upcoming series between the White Sox and the Indians.

Cleveland can't be much hotter than they are right now. After starting slowly, they are an amazing 38-15 since July 23rd. They are comprised of a bunch of kids who are afraid of nothing, a manager who's yet to turn 40, and a pitching staff that compares with the best in the American League.

On the other hand, the White Sox have to be doubting themselves. Everyone expected a cool-down from their scorching start to the season, but they've played sub-.500 ball since mid-July. If they want to avoid one of the most momumental collapses in Chicago history, stepping up this week against upstart Cleveland is a necessity.

Monday, 8:05 ET: Millwood (8-11, 3.02) @ Garcia (12-8, 3.96)

Nobody's had tougher luck than Kevin Millwood in 2005. His ERA suggests that he should be approaching the high teens in wins by now, but poor run support and blown wins by the bullpen have given him a pedestrian 8-11 record. Freddy Garcia has been solid all year, but his 1-4 record since the trade dealine is troubling.

Analysis: Due to Millwood's bad luck, I give a slight edge to the White Sox in game one. Expect a low-scoring affair.

Tuesday, 8:05 ET: Westbrook (15-14, 4.56) @ Buehrle (15-7, 3.21)

This is a case of two starters heading in opposite directions. Westbrook started off 6-12, only to go 9-2 since. And Buehrle, once the Cy Young favorite, is 5-6 since winning 10 of his first 11 decisions. Still, Westbrook is 0-3 against Chicago this season and Buehrle 2-0 against Cleveland.

Analysis: Despite the discrepancies in the numbers of the two pitchers, I think Westbrook has become a microcasm of the Indians team: a no-name who started off cold and now is afraid of nobody. I'll take Cleveland in game two.

Wednesday, 8:05 ET: Elarton (10-7, 4.57) @ Garland (17-9, 3.41)

The final of this series looks like a mismatch. Elarton has been a decent no. 4 type starter who gives you some innings and a chance to win; Garland has been an ace despite cooling down lately. Also, Elarton has really struggled against the Sox this year in two starts, and Garland has dominated the Indians to the tune of a 2-0, 2.84 mark in two starts.

Analysis: I wouldn't be surprise if Cleveland can pull it off, but game 3 favors the ChiSox by a good amount on paper. Chicago wins game 3, and takes 2 of 3 in the series.

I'm Still Here

2005-09-18T20:31:00.000-04:00

Just letting everyone know that I'm still here. I'll try to be more active over the next few weeks/months, but I've been busy since the calendar hit September.

The AL East is going to be a dogfight, much closer than I expected or my formula predicted. The Red Sox are holding on to a 1 game lead in the loss column, matching the Yankees win-for-win (and loss-for-loss) for the most part. The last series of the year, in Fenway Park, looks to be the deciding factor in who wins the crown.

The Indians are on fire, and they might even catch the White Sox. They play Chicago seven more times, which is enough to mount a final charge. If the ChiSox squander this once-insurmountable lead, it will go down with the biggest collapses in Chicago sports history.

It's going to be a fun month, in the AL, at least. Go Sox.

Schill!

2005-09-10T22:47:00.000-04:00

He's baaaaaaaaaaack! (Or so we can hope.)

The vintage Schilling showed up at the stadium today and pumped in 8 strong innings in his first victory since being reinstalled in Boston's rotation in late August. His fastball was located well, his splitter was moving, his cutter was effective...he was vintage Schilling.

What this tells me is, that even though Curt isn't going to be dominant day-in, day-out starter he has been in the past, he will show up for the big games. Nobody pitches better in the spotlight than Curt Schilling, and if that last series at Fenway against the Empire means something--watch out, Yanks.

I've said for a while now, these Red Sox don't need Schilling to be an ace, they just need him to be a consistent starter. Boston scores enough runs to make guys like Tim Wakefield and Matt Clement 15-game winners. But if Schilling can pitch the way he did yesterday in the postseason, and be that stopper, the chances of the Sox repeating increase dramatically.

Tomorrow's an interesting matchup: Tim Wakefield against Randy Johnson. Which Randy shows up? Nobody knows, and that's the key to the outcome. A Boston victory in the Sunday matinee goes a long way towards ending the AL East race.

NFL Week One Picks

2005-09-10T13:11:00.000-04:00

In the first game, I lost against the spread and won straight-up. Here are the rest of week one's picks.

Straight-Up

Broncos
Bengals
Bills
Steelers
Redskins
Panthers
Vikings
Jaguars
Jets
Cardinals
Rams
Packers
Cowboys
Ravens
Eagles

Against the Spread

Dolphins
Bengals
Texans
Steelers
Redskins
Panthers
Vikings
Jaguars
Jets
Cardinals
Rams
Packers
Cowboys
Ravens
Eagles

Turner Field is a Hellhole

2005-09-08T18:15:00.000-04:00

It's true. It is.

I realize last night's game meant nothing in all likelyhood--the Mets are done. The debacle in Cobb County was just a demoralizing final nail in the coffin--a move the Mets have perfected over the last few years.

I've been Braden Looper's biggest defender, but he has to go. The Mets need to find somebody who can strike people out and who can get lefties out. Looper isn't the guy. Hell, I'd give it to Aaron Heilman next year and see if he can do the job. (And by the way, it should have been Heilman, and not Looper, pitching the tenth. Bonehead Willie returns).

The Mets finish the year 1-8 at Turner Field. Unless that number improves, they won't win anything in 2006. You can't have a stop where you play 9 or 10 games and simply can't win.

Also, the f*cking fans in Atlanta are so bad, they don't deserve that team. Last night, they drew all of 25,000 people. It's really a shame. If the Mets had 13 consecutive division titles under their belt, 50,000 would be a norm at Shea for a week night.

Rant is over. I just hate the Braves.

NFL Season Opens

The NFL season begins tonight in Foxboro, where the Raiders visit the Patriots. I'll be picking games ATS all year...now, for the opening pick:

Raiders (+7.5) over Patriots

I'll take the points.

Big Week

2005-09-06T19:21:00.000-04:00

This is a huge week coming up, for many reasons.

-The Yankees play the Devil Rays, who have been their albatross in 2005. The Yanks are 4-9 against the Rays. Then, it's a huge 3-game series against Boston, which will go a long way towards deciding which team wins the AL East.

-The Mets fight for their playoff lives, if they still exist. The Braves beat them yesterday, and two more at Turner followed by four at St. Louis is a stretch that can render a team done. The Mets have to go 3-3 in these last six to have a shot.

-Boston is finally to get tested. They've had a dream homestand thus far, and have 3 more against the Angels in Fenway before heading to Yankee Stadium. It's a near certainty that Boston makes the playoffs in my mind, but a poor stretch here against teams that are fighting for playoff spots could place Boston squarely in the middle of a dog-fight to get to the postseason.

-------------

I'm going to be more busy now, but I'll try to post daily. The posts may not be as long and substantive as they were until we hit October, but I'll do what I can.

Matt Clement <3 Run Support

2005-09-04T13:00:00.000-04:00

When Matt Clement pitches, the Red Sox score alot of runs. It's that simple.

Baseball prospectus did a study on the "luckiest" pitches in baseball this year. Cliff Lee of Cleveland, who is 14-4 with a 3.90 ERA, was first. Clement was second.

Clement did pitch very well yesterday, however, going eight innings and giving up just four runs in winning his thirteenth game. But, it should be noted that Clement was actually a better pitcher last year with Chicago, when he only went 9-13.

Clement probably is the Red Sox ace at this point, considering that they always win with him on the mound. My postseason rotation would be Clement, David Wells, Tim Wakefield, and Bronson Arroyo. (Sorry, Curt, but you suck.) Schilling and Papelbon can contribute in the bullpen come the postseason.

Clement needs one more win to match a career-high 14, which he posted in 2003 with Chicago. Clement also won 13 games with San Diego in 2000, but also lost 17 games that year.

Today's Schedule

Mets (Seo, 6-1, 1.86) @ Marlins (Burnett, 12-8, 3.07)

Willie Randolph brought in Shingo friggin' Takatsu with the bases loaded against Miguel Cabrera, and Takatsu gave up a 3-run double. Big surprise, huh? Same old Mets.

Orioles (Lopez, 13-8, 4.85) @ Red Sox (Wells, 11-6, 4.44)

David Wells returns from his 6-game suspension against Baltimore. Hell, he's been the Red Sox best pitcher since mid-May or so, and goes for win No. 12 today.

Yankees (Chacon, 4-9, 3.72) @ Athletics (Zito, 12-10, 3.37)

Remember when the Yankees started 11-19? Well, the 19th loss of that stretch came against Oakland in extra innings, a game which Barry Zito started. Zito goes again for the A's, as they try to revenge the Yanks for Aaron Small's shutout yesterday. Shawn Chacon, who was shelled at Seattle in his last start, goes for the Yanks.

Lit Up

2005-09-03T15:05:00.000-04:00

0.2 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 6 R, 1 BB, 1 HR.

Hah.

We shouldn't make fun of Al; after all, the Mets don't make the playoffs in 1999 and 2000 without him. But it hurts me to see one of my favorite Mets with the Yankees, and now that he's there, I've got no choice but to root against him.

Al's been decent enough as a Yankee though, I will say that. Even with last night's debacle, he's at 4-4, 5.33 with the Yankees, with the ERA more than a run better than it was in Florida.

Al, I love you as a Met. We went through Game 6 in 1999 and Game 5 in 2000 together. But I hope you crash and burn down the stretch with the rest of the Yankees.

See you in a broadcast booth in 2006, Al!

Mussina Out Indefinitely With Tendinitis

Just when the Yankees think they have their rotation all figured out, Jaret Wright gets hit with a line drive and Mike Mussina gets told by a doctor he might be done for the season.

More and more, it's looking like this just ain't the Yankees year.

An MRI performed by Los Angeles doctor Lewis Yocum revealed tendinitis in Mike Mussina's right elbow, an injury that just might mean he's done for 2005. Mussina was told by Yocum to "rest until it doesn't hurt" (that's one hell of a doctor) and Mussina says he'll obey the doctor's orders.

The MSNBC article on this subject can be found here.

Today's Schedule

Yankees (Small, 5-0, 3.03) @ Athletics (Saarloos, 9-6, 3.98), 4:05 pm

The Yanks look for revenge from last night's 12-0 loss. Aaron Small looks to continue his dream season, and he's opposed by Kirk Saarloos. The way things are shaping up, Small could be the Yanks best starter down the stretch.

Mets (Benson, 9-6, 3.91) @ Marlins (Beckett, 12-8, 3.62), 6:05 pm

The Mets are going through the obligatory losing-streak-after-winning-streak period, dropping 5 of their last 6. Josh Beckett doesn't look to be any easier than Dontrelle Willis was last night, either.

Orioles (Bedard, 6-5, 3.42) @ Red Sox (Clement, 12-3, 4.27), 7:05 pm

Lenny DiNardo did his job last night, going 6 innings with just one earned run, but an error and uncharacteristically quiet Red Sox bats did him in. Matt Clement is no stranger to run support, and Erik Bedard has been struggling lately, so I think the Sox will rebound and post some runs on the board tonight as Clement goes for this 13th win.

Johnny Hero

2005-09-01T22:33:00.000-04:00

When John Olerud was a Met, I loved him.

When John Olerud left the Mets to sign with Seattle...I still liked him.

When John Olerud signed with the Yankees after being cut by Seattle...I still couldn't dislike him.

And now, I feel comfortable loving the guy again.

On a night when Manny Ramirez was out of the Red Sox lineup, and David Ortiz went 0-for-4, the Sox needed firepower somehow. They got it from an unlikely source.

Olerud's 2 HR's and 6 RBI made him the toast of Beantown. And, it also makes Omar Minaya look like a fool for going with Doug Mientkiewicz over Olerud, who unlike Dougie, can actually hit.

The long-struggling Bronson Arroyo got back on track tonight, too. He allowed just 4 runs over 7 innings to win his 11th game. With the way Boston throws up runs, if you can get it to the 8th inning without imploding, that's usually good enough.

Jonathan Papelbon pitched the 8th inning and allowed two hits, but struck out the side before allowing a run. Mike Timlin notched his 5th save with a 1-2-3 ninth inning.

Before the game, the Red Sox activated four players, including Keith Foulke. The others were IF Alejando Machado, former Marlins LHP Matt Perisho, and RHP Chad Harville. Harville was claimed off waivers from the Astros earlier in the week.

.139/.258/.200
Those above numbers were the hitting percentages of Mariners' catcher Miguel Ojeda heading into today's afternoon game against the Yankees. Shitty, huh? Well, that means nothing to Tanyon Sturtze.

Sturtze allowed a seventh-inning, solo home run to Ojeda in the seventh inning that broke a 1-1 tie and gave the Mariners the lead for good. The M's were trailing for most of the first six innings until Jaret Wright was knocked out of the game after taking a ball to the collarbone off the bat of Raul Ibanez.

After that, two members of the 2004 Red Sox proceeded to give up earned runs, namely, Alan Embree and Ramiro Mendoza. With those two and strikeout king Mark Bellhorn, it looks like the Yankees M.O. for 2005 and on is to pick out of Boston's trash bin.

Here's a nice shot of Bellhorn in his Yankee attire:

Thanks for Game 6, Mark. But, you suck.

Today's Schedule

Orioles (Maine, 1-1, 2.70) @ Red Sox (DiNardo, 0-0, 10.80)

Lenny DiNardo makes a spot start for Boston, leaving us wondering, isn't there a better option? 5-6 IP, 5-6 ER should be the goal for DiNardo, and let the offense do the rest.

Mets (Zambrano, 7-10, 4.07) @ Marlins (Willis, 18-8, 2.61)

Can you blame me for not wanting to write about another depressing Mets loss? Talking about Johnny O and Miguel Ojeda just was a more entertaining endeavor. Zamby pitches for his life once more as the Mets take on Cy Young hopeful Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins.

Yankees (Leiter, 7-10, 5.75) @ Athletics (Haren, 11-10, 3.99)

The Yanks make their second trip to Almaeda County, but this time, the A's are good. Met folk hero Al Leiter, who's pitched decently as a Yankee, takes on former Cardinal Danny Haren. Haren was aquired in the Mark Mulder deal by the A's, and looks to be a fine young pitcher with a great future ahead of him.

Other Notes

-The Jets completed their preseason with a 37-14 win over the Eagles. The defense was very impressive, led by safeties Kerry Rhodes and Rashad Washington, who each had an interception. Chad Pennington rebounded from his poor performance against the Giants by leading a touchdown drive in his only action of the game.

YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2005-08-31T15:46:00.000-04:00

The best wins are when you fall behind early, chip away, get key outs, and an unlikely hero comes though. Right?

Well that happened last night at Shea. Jae Seo didn't have it, as he allowed 2 homers in the first, one of which to some new guy named Burrell. But the Kid from Kwangju battled with what he had, and got through five innings while keeping the Mets in the game.

Carlos Beltran also had one of his few good days as a Met. He hit a solo shot in the first, a single in the third, an RBI single in the fifth, and a key walk in the eighth. Beltran also had an impressive toss to the plate that nailed Kenny Lofton, and quite possibly turned the momentum around in the ballgame.

The real story isn't Beltran. It's Ramon Castro. A retread before the season started, Castro has proven now to have a knack for the clutch. Every hit he gets is a big one. Yesterday was no different, as his three-run bomb to left field in the eighth gave the Mets the lead for good, and was the Mets biggest hit since Mike Piazza went deep off of Steve Karsay against the Braves on September 21, 2001.

Castro's season numbers are somewhat misleading. He has modest, yet solid, percentages of .257/.333/.466 on the year, but his numbers in the second half and with runners in scoring position are incredible. With runners in scoring position, Castro is hitting .367; with runners in scoring position and two outs, he's hitting .286.

I hope Mike Piazza can come back this year, just because he's Mike Piazza. If the Mets are going win this thing, it doesn't seem right it would be without Mike. But as far as I'm concerned, Piazza's days as an everyday player with the Mets are gone.

Still feel free to wear the Mets cap into Cooperstown, Mike. We love you. But you've been surpassed by King Castro.

Today's Schedule

Devil Rays (Fossum, 8-10, 4.76) @ Red Sox (Wakefield, 13-10, 4.35)

Hell, Tim Wakefield leads the Red Sox in wins? That doesn't seem right. But it's the truth, and Wakey goes for his 14th tonight against Casey Fossum. Fossum actually was one of the players sent to Arizona to get Curt Schilling to Boston. Go figure; less than two years later, he's better than Schilling.

Phillies (Myers, 11-6, 3.55) @ Mets (Martinez, 13-5, 2.77)

Brett Myers has had the breakout season scouts have long predicted for him. Pedro Martinez has avoided the disasterous season the know-it-alls were predicting for him. It looks like a nice pitching matchup, so come out to Shea, will you? Lets break 45,000 for tonight's game.

Yankees (Johnson, 12-8, 4.20) @ Mariners (Hernandez, 2-1, 1.75)

An ex-Mariner ace matches up against the future Mariner ace, as Randy Johnson duels Felix Hernandez. Hernandez has been compared by the scouts to Pedro Martinez. Well, that's a little steep, but he's already outpitching another Hall-of-Famer in Johnson. Consider this: Felix doesn't turn 20 until April 8th of next year; Johnson hits 42 in 10 days.

NL, AL Wild Card Analyses

2005-08-29T16:46:00.000-04:00

Since it's no fun to write about the Mets losing, I decided I'd instead analyze the NL and AL Wild Card races using my "Hanoverian Theorem".

I made a post, entitled "AL East Analysis" (which can be found here), using this theorem. The theorem involves separating the home and road records of each team, and predicting a team's final Won-Lost record by multiplying each team's home and road winning percentages by it's amount of home and road games left, respecively. Got all that?

NL Wild Card Final Predicted Records-Hanoverian Theorem

1. Philadelphia...86-76
2. Florida...86-76
3. Mets...85-77
4. Houston...85-77

I left out Washington because I think they're done, and because of their second half dropoff, I feel the theorem wouldn't produce accurate results. Oh, and by the way...if four teams are separated by 1 game at the end, that would mean it's gonna be a fun September.

AL Wild Card Final Predicted Records-Hanoverian Theorem

1. Oakland...92-70
2. LA Angels...92-70
3. Yankees...91-71
4. Cleveland...90-72

The theorem predicts that Oakland/LA will tie for the AL West crown, with the loser of the tiebreaker taking the Wild Card. Again, with 4 teams projected only 2 games apart, we're in for one hell of a September.

Today's Schedule

Tampa Bay (McClung, 5-7, 6.40) @ Boston (Clement, 11-3, 4.35)

Matt Clement's best friend this year has been run support, and he started out with 10 wins by July 6th, but has won just once since then. McClung is another Tampa Bay retread, but Tampa has done extremely well in the second half, going 26-15.

Yankees (Mussina, 12-8, 4.21) @ Seattle (Franklin, 6-14, 5.29)

The Yankees make their second trip to Safeco this year, after taking 2 of 3 in Seattle back in May. Mike Mussina tries to rebound after his terrible start against Toronto last Wednesday, when he gave up 9 runs in the 5th inning.

Just A Little Bit Short

2005-08-28T12:07:00.000-04:00

Everything the Mets did in yesterday's loss to San Francisco just came up a tad short.

Tom Glavine missed vesting his 2006 option by .1 inning.

The Mets left the tying run in scoring position in both the 7th and 9th innings.

And so on. I know we can't win 'em all, but it seems like we have to in order to prevail in the Wild Card chase. The good news is, every team we're chasing lost yesterday, except for Florida. Even Houston and Roy Oswalt were blown out by the Dodgers.

Today's game is huge. A win today virtually insures that abotu 150,000 people show up to Shea for the upcoming 3-game series against Philadelphia (and I might be one of them). A loss puts a damper on an otherwise brilliant road trip.

Kris Benson, battling shoulder soreness, goes for the Mets. The Mets are 14-7 in Benson's starts so far this year. Opposing him is the young and promising Noah Lowry, who the Mets beat at Shea Stadium earlier this year, but he has since come on strong and been the Giants no. 2 starter.

Today's Schedule

Royals (Grienke, 3-15, 6.04) @ Yankees (Leiter, 6-10, 5.96)

How the hell did the Yankees lose last night's game? That was truly depressing. A loss doesn't seem very likely for the Empire today, either, as Zach Grienke opposes them on his quest to lose 20 games.

Detroit (Robertson, 6-10, 3.85) @ Red Sox (Wells, 10-6, 4.53)

David Wells may be the ace of the Red Sox staff down the stretch. That is a scary thought, but it's probably true. Bronson Arroyo was the last Sox pitcher to get bombed, allowing 7 runs in a loss last night.

Mets (Benson, 9-5, 3.89) @ Giants (Lowry, 10-11, 3.81)

Already been discussed. LGM!

Rolling Along

2005-08-27T12:31:00.000-04:00

I'll tell you from experience: having too many starting pitchers is more fun that having too few.

For a good amount of time last year, the Mets only had 3 solid starters: Al Leiter, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel. Retreads such as James Baldwin, Scott Erickson, Matt Ginter, Tyler Yates, the 2004 version of Jae Seo, and others passed through the rotation, losing far more often than they won. Here in 2005, we have a surplus of starting pitching.

Steve Trachsel made his case last night for being a stronghold in this rotation. Before the game last night, I was expecting about 6 innings, 3 runs, and 80 pitches from Trachsel in his first game back. But Steve beat all possible expectations, going 8 shutout innings in a 1-0 Mets win over San Francisco. Trax was the old reliable he's been for the past 4 seasons, only better. He spotted hit high-80s fastball perfectly, the hook was dropping out of the sky, and he employed a two-seamer also as an effective third pitch.

The lone jam Trachsel was in came in the eighth inning, after an infield single to ex-Met Edgardo Alfonzo. After J.T. Snow sacrificed to first, and Mike Matheny ground out to shortstop, the tying run stood on third base with two outs.

A long battle with Michael Tucker was unsuccessful, as Trax left a curveball up high for ball four. Most managers would have likely gone to the bullpen here, but kudos to Willie for leaving Trax in to pitch out of a jam. After falling behind Randy Winn 3-1, Trax induced a pop-up to shallow center field to retain the lead.

Braden Looper came on for the ninth, and made us sweat a little, allowing a leadoff double to Omar Vizquel. But Loop shut the door thereafter, with three groundouts that ended up stranding the tying run on third base. Looper now has 27 saves in 32 oppurtunities, good for a very respectable save percentage of 84.375%.

The lone source of offense for the Mets came from David Wright, once again. Wright clubbed a long solo homer in the second inning that proved to be the game winner. Wright also added a single in his next at-bat, and his hitting percentages now sit at an amazing .316/.396/.538. And remember, he's 22 years old.

Today's Schedule

Royals (Howell, 1-4, 7.68) @ Yankees (Wright, 4-2, 6.00)

A-Rod and Bernie put a beatdown on Kansas City last night, combining for three home runs. The bad news is, the Yanks are on a roll; the good news is, 24 of Boston's 36 remaining games are at home. The Yankees are now 2.5 behind the Red Sox and remain in a three-way, wild-card tie.

Mets (Glavine, 10-10, 4.10) @ Giants (Schmidt, 10-6, 4.41)

The Mets go for their sixth straight and eighth win in nine games, but now go up against the Giants ace. The Mets tatooed Schmidt earlier in the year, scoring 6 runs over four innings. Schmidt has rebounded since then, and he'll face off against the red hot Tom Glavine, who vests his 2006 option with 6.1 innings in today's game.

Tigers (Douglass, 5-2, 4.76) @ Red Sox (Arroyo, 10-9, 4.19)

Boston has now won a staggering 14 consecutive games at Fenway, and look to continue that against journeyman Sean Douglass, who has pitched well this season. Bronson Arroyo makes his return to the rotation after a short stint in the bullpen.

Sweep Music

2005-08-26T17:22:00.000-04:00

They say the greatest athletes persevere on nights when they just don't have it. Pedro proved that last night.

In the first inning, Pedro allowed 3 walks and a hit batsmen, yet got through the inning. In fact, he walked the leadoff man each time in the first 3 innings, yet carried a no-hitter into the sixth. Pedro's changeup wasn't there, and his control eluded him, but he used an excellent curveball and dialed his heater up to the low-90s in order to shut out the D-Backs through six innings. Pedro hit 100 pitches as he retired Shawn Green on a groundout, his last batter of the game.

Victor Diaz provided a great deal of the offense for the Mets on a night when their bats were silenced by ex-Yankee Javier Vazquez. Diaz, embroiled in a mini-controversy involving his tagging up from second base late in Wednesday's 18-4 blowout, responded with a solo home run in the second inning, Victor's ninth, to put the Mets up 2-0. Diaz added an RBI on a ninth-inning sacrifice fly that gave the Mets an insurance run. Cliff Floyd had two hits, and David Wright extended his games-on-base streak to 14 with a walk and a single.

Not counted on the previous two nights, the bullpen stepped up. After a tired Aaron Heilman inexplicably was summoned by manager Willie Randolph, Robbie Hernandez got out of a seventh inning jam and stayed on to pitch the eighth. He gave up a solo home run to Chad Tracy, but was able to hold the lead. A 1-2-3 ninth inning by Braden Looper earned the Mets the win, and Looper his 26th save in 31 chances.

With the win, the Mets pulled to just 1.5 games back of the idle Phillies in the NL Wild Card. They also took a one-game lead on Washington, which is stunning considering the Nats were 10 games ahead of the Mets in the standings as late as July 5th.

Today's Schedule

Royals (Wood, 4-4, 4.09) @ Yankees (Johnson, 11-8, 4.34)

The Yanks look to stay hot after taking 3 of 4 from the Blue Jays, and look to get revenge on the Royals, who swept them in Kansas City May 31-June 2. The Royals just took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox.

Red Sox (Wakefield, 12-10, 4.29) @ Tigers (Johnson, 7-9, 4.09)

Predictably, Curt Schilling got bombed last night in KC. The sad reality may be that Jonathan Papelbon can better help the Red Sox in that rotation than can Schilling. Tim Wakefield looks to right the ship tonight.

Mets (Trachsel, 0-0, NR) @ Giants (Correia, 2-4, 4.86)

Steve Trachsel makes his first start for the Mets since September 28, 2004. He is opposed by the weak-hitting Giants and rookie Kevin Correia. The stage is set, hopefully, for another convincing Mets victory, prodived Trax can get back on track in a hurry.

Youth Movement

2005-08-25T11:37:00.000-04:00

If you told me at the start of the year the Mets were going through a youth movement on April 1st, I'd probably have snarled and said something along the lines of "Hey, if they suck, the might as well play the kids and not Gerald Williams." Heh.

Not only are the Mets playing the kids, they've reached their high water mark of the year, and are right in the thick of the NL Wild Card race. Three of the kids- Jose Reyes, age 22; David Wright, age 22; and Mike Jacobs, age 24, combined for 5 home runs and 10 RBI in an 18-4 win over Arizona.

Even though the Mets are squarely in contention for the first time this late in the year since 2001,
I'm finding myself more excited about the future than I am about now. If Reyes and Wright are this good at 22, and we'll get into just how good they actually are, how great will they be two years from now? The same goes for Mike Jacobs and Victor Diaz at age 24.

David Wright now, after a solid first half that saw him hit .281/.369/.470, has absolutely been lit on fire since the break. He's hitting .383/.448/.667 since the All-Star game, with 9 HR and 38 RBI. Wright is approaching top-fifteen in OBP, top-ten in SLG, and top-five in his first full MLB season. And he's getting better.

Jose Reyes is another kid who's made a big improvement since the break. After hitting .261/.384/.367 with 24 steals in the 1st half, Jose has exploded since, going at a .321/.355/457 clip, along with 19 stolen bases. Because of his speed, if Reyes can keep his OBP at .350 or so over the long haul, he'll be an absolute monster over the long haul.

Reyes and Wright certainly are the most prominent kids who are contributing, but there are a bunch on this roster. Look:

-Mike Jacobs, 24: Tore up AA, now 7-for-13 with 4 HR and 9 RBI in the bigs
-Victor Diaz, 24: The butcher in the field, but the kid can hit. .333/.326/.689 since his recall from Norfolk
-Aaron Heilman, 26: 3.80 ERA overall, 85/24 K/BB ratio, 0.92 second half ERA
-Heath Bell, 27: 4.24 ERA, 38/11 K/BB ratio, plus his new and devastating splitter
-Juan Padilla, 28: Former Yankee and Red, professional retread resume, yet extremely effective in 2005 in Norfolk and New York. Lefties hitting just .172 in his short New York stint
-Jae Seo, 28: Beena round the block, but stilly oung enough to grow into a middle-of-the-rotation role. He's been like Roger Clemens in the bigs, however, going 6-1, 1.30

Can't forget the kids in the minors either:

-Anderson Hernandez, 22: Advanced past AA in 3 months; .327/.384/.423 with 24 steals in AAA
-Brian Bannister, 24: Eastern League's best pitcher has graduated to Norfolk, and is an impressive 4-1, 2.97 in 7 AAA starts.
-Yusmeiro Petit, 20: After being promoted from AA and haveing a sub-3 ERA in Binghamton, Petit went 6 solid innings in his AAA debut
-Lastings Milledge, 20: .341/.395/.503 at Binghamton. Could fill the second slot in the lineup as soon as mid-2006

As for now, we're only one back of Philadelphia in the loss column. Keep fightin', kids.

Tom Terrific

2005-08-23T17:43:00.000-04:00

In all honesty, Tom Glavine hasn't lived up to the contract he signed in December 2002 in his tenure with the Mets. Even with last night's win, his thirtieth as a Met, he's just 30-38 since 2003.

There have been two stretches where Glavine's been worth his contract; the first three months of 2004, where at one point he was 7-3 with a 2.03 ERA, and over his last two months here in 2005. Since dropping to 4-7, 5.06 with a loss at Seattle on June 19th, Glavine has gone 6-3 and seen his ERA fall .96 to 4.10.

Glavine vesting his 2006 option isn't the nightmare it was just a few months ago. The sum would be large, in the vacinity of $9 million, but Glavine has found the fountain of youth and I don't think he's turning back. Tom may not be a Met at heart, and I question how much he has invested in the team's success, but there's another factor that keeps him motivated: his chase for 300 wins. Glavine now sits at 272, 28 short of the mark. With a strong finish this year and a decent year next year, Glavine can get within ten of the mark by the end of 2006 and conceiveably then return to Atlanta for 2007 as a 41-year-old to provide veteran guidance and win his 300th at midseason.

Suddenly...He's All Wright
Not unlike Tom Glavine, Jaret Wright was written off for dead earlier in the season. After starting four games, he went on the DL with torn scar tissue while sporting a 9.15 ERA, and was presumed lost for the year. But after months of rehabilitation, Wright is back and better than ever.

Wright went 7 strong innings last night against Toronto, and won his fourth game of the season. Allowing just 4 hits and striking out 5, the Yankee 7-0 victory placed them in a three-way tie for the AL Wild-Card lead.

The Yankees got more good news from the pitching front when Chien-Ming Wang threw in the bullpen successfully without pain before the game against Toronto. Wang threw all his pitches and impressed Joe Torre, who is subscribing to the thinking that Wang can return in September for the stretch run. Wang is 6-3 with a 3.89 in 2005.

Today's Schedule

Blue Jays (Towers, 10-9, 4.12) @ Yankees (Leiter, 6-10, 6.09), 7:05 PM

Red Sox (Wells, 9-6, 4.70) @ Royals (Grienke, 3-14, 6.02), 8:10 PM

Mets (Zambrano, 6-10, 4.24) @ Diamondbacks (Vargas, 7-6, 4.47), 9:40 PM

Other Notes

-The Yankees climbed to third in Sportsline's MLB Power Rankings, their highest since April. Boston remains in first place, and the Mets ascended one slot to no. 15. The rankings can be found here.

-Steve Trachsel was activated today and is headed to the bullpen, at least for a short period of time. The Mets brass is probably hoping Jae Seo fails soon so he can be placed in the pen and Trachsel can be inserted into the final spot in the rotation.

Unit Breakdown

2005-08-21T20:07:00.000-04:00

We all know moving from the NL to the AL is challenging. But in Randy Johnson's case, it's changed him from a dominating, top-5 caliber pitcher to a middle-of-the-road starter in just a matter of months. Never were Johnson's struggles more apparent than in today's fourth inning in Chicago.

After Johnson cruised through the first three frames, he was burned for 4 dingers in the 4th, including back-to-back-to-back shots by Tadahito Iguchi, Aaron Rowand, and Paul Konerko. For good measure, former Yankee and retread backup catcher Chris Widger added a 3-run shot that sailed over the left field wall.

So, what's wrong with Randy? The three factors most likely are the switch in leagues, his nagging groin and back injuries, and age. This is not good news for the Yankees, who made a $57 million financial commitment to Johnson when they acquired him from Arizona in January. He's still under contract for 2 more seasons, at $16 million per year, and all indications are that the guy who was supposed to be the Yankees' ace in now just a hall-of-famer in decline.

AL Roundup

The Yanks lost ground on Boston with the loss today, as Boston scored five in the eighth to beat the Angels 5-1. Manny Ramirez and Edgar Renteria each had home runs. With the win, Boston moves to 4 games up on the Yankees in the AL East.

Oakland, the primary team the Yanks are chasing in the wild-card race, lost a second straight game to Kansas City. The losses by both teams keep a 1/2 game of separation between the two teams, while they are even in the loss column. Cleveland is also 1/2 games back, but trails by one game in the loss column.

Triumphant Return

2005-08-21T14:41:00.000-04:00

I've been away on vacation since August 13th. Now I'm back, and it's time for a bullet style roundup.

-I've been able to follow the Mets results nightly through WNBC newscasts. Len Berman has kept me updated on the results, and I can't say I'm overly disappointed or elated. Losing on the road and winning at home has been a constant tag line for the 2005 Mets. Still, being in the hunt in late August is wonderful, considering where the Mets have been the last five August 21st's.

-I pulled in the Jets' preseason game vs. Minnesota on some CBS affiliate out of Erie, Pennsylvania. Chad Pennington looked good enough for me not to be too worried about his health for the opener at Kansas City. He was nothing special the first two drives, but on the last series he played that led to a TD, Penny and Coles partied like it's 2002. Hopefully, we'll see more of the same out of Chad and LaColes when it starts to count.

-The Yanks have cut Boston's lead to 3 games. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Boston's upcoming schedule means it's still highly unlikely the Yanks can catch the Sox. The wild-card, however, is a different story, although I still lead towards Oakland and their pitching.

-My boy Zach Duke shut the Mets out through seven innings one night. I'd like to have seen the Mets beat him 2-1 or something, but I don't mind that kind of loss too much. Duke is now 6-0, 1.87 in 2005.

-Curt Schilling will return to the starting rotation on Thursday against Kansas City. (It's about time). Mike Timlin will close until Keith Foulke is ready to return, presumably in the first week of September. Wade Miller will likely go into the bullpen when he returns from the disabled list. Also, 2004 postseason hero Mark Bellhorn was designated for assignment by the Red Sox.

-The Mets lost about 25 minutes ago, 7-3 to Washington, to cap off the 4-2 homestand. My boy Mike Jacobs hit a 3-run home run in his first major-league at bat, which was really the lone highlight of the game. The bullpen did pitch well, however; after Kris Benson was bombed for 6 runs in 2/3 of an innings, Juan Padilla, Danny Graves, and Aaron Heilman combined for 8 1/3 innings of 1-run baseball.

AL East Analysis

2005-08-12T17:19:00.000-04:00

As we sit today, after the Yankee victory over Texas last night, Boston leads New York by 5 games in both columns. Any Red Sox fan would have taken that number in a heartbeat if you asked on April 3rd, but right now it appears as if the Yankees have even overachieved gien the circumstances, with injuries ravaging their pitching staff.

So, what exactly are the chances of a Boston victory in the AL East?

They've got to be pretty good. Not only is Boston up a 5-spot on the Yankees in the AL East, they have 27 games left at home compared to just 22 on the road. Boston's .667 winning percentage at Fenway this year in certainly encouraging. If the Red Sox play to their season percentages at home and on the road to close out 2005, they will hang up about 95 wins come October 3rd.

The Yankees' chances of matching that number, at at best, minimal. Using that formula to caluclate the Yankee record at the end of the year, they win win only approximately 86 games.

While this formula does not factor in strength of schedule, it certainly is accurate enough to give a basic measure of the two teams' season performance. And, it reveals the Red Sox to be the prohibitive favorite in the AL East.

Cameron, Beltran Updates

Mike Cameron and Carlos Beltran are still in a San Diego hospital following injuries sustained in yesterday's collision. (To view the collision, click here)

Cameron has sustained a broken nose, a mild concussion, and multiple fractures to both cheekbones. He will need surgery and likely is done for 2005.

Beltran, was slightly more lucky, sustaining a mild concussion, abrasions on the left side of his face, a minor displaced facial fracture, and an injury to his left shoulder. No timetable has been set for Carlito's return, but he may be out until September, or later.

Cameron was placed on the 15-day DL, and Victor Diaz has been recalled from Norfolk, presuably to be the regular right fielder for the rest of the season.

Our hearts go out to Cammy and Carlito, Cammy especially, and wish him a safe recovery.

Get Well Soon

2005-08-11T22:06:00.000-04:00

The Mets did lose today. But that's secondary to the health of our good friend Mike Cameron.

Cameron and Carlos Beltran collided in the seventh inning when diving for a flyball. Both lay on the ground for a long period of time before Beltran was able to get up and leave the field on his own power.

Cameron, however, had to be carted off.

Reports are coming in that Cammy has sustained a minor concussion, a broken nose, and multiple fractures to his cheekbones. He's been placed on the disabled list, and don't look for him in uniform for the rest of 2005.

GET WELL SOON, MIKE

Eight Miles High...

2005-08-10T11:55:00.000-04:00

..and falling fast.

That's Yankee fan Scott Harper, who was dumb enough to jump from the upper deck at Yankee Stadium last night. In the eighth inning, during a Derek Jeter sac bunt, Harper proclaimed to his friends something along the lines of "you think the net will hold me"? Luckily for him (and the people below him,) it did, but not he faces charges of reckless endangerment, criminal mischief, criminal trespass, and disorderly conduct.

The fall was entertaining in itself, but the game was even better. Chicago knocked off the Yankees, 2-1, behind former Yankee Jose Contreras and his stellar outing. With the score 1-0 in the top of the ninth, Joe Torre let lefthander Alan Embree face righthanded power hitter Paul Konerko. The result, in the words of Michael Kay...

"Hit DEEP to left-center field...giving chase Womack...he's on the run...SEE YA!"

Classic, just like Georgie Steinbrenner's reaction to the managerial decision was...

"I'm not very pleased with the manager. I don't know why the left the lefthander in there..."

Oh, but I do! Konerko entered that at-bat hitting all of .209 against lefthanded pitching in 2005! And he was only a career 1-for-five against Embree, who had been throwing the ball very well in his past three appearances.

A word of advice, George: shut the hell up. "Don't criticize what you can't understand."

Boston Marathon

When Boston and Texas hook up at Fenway, you expect a shootout, and that's what we got last night. After taking a 7-2 lead, the combination of Mike Remlinger, who gave up four runs in his Red Sox debut, and Chad Bradford, coughed up the lead in the seventh. After burning the entire bullpen except for Jeremi Gonzalez and Manny Declarmen, Boston was able to win the game in the tenth on an Edgar Renteria single. That's great for Edgar, who made two errors in the game and has been a major disappointment in the field in 2005.

Why call it a Boston Marathon? The game lasted an unruly 4:13.

The Sox made some transactions before the game. They shipped OF Jose Cruz Jr. to Los Angeles for a player to be named. Wade Miller also went on the 15-day DL with a sore right shoulder.

Today's Schedule

White Sox (Garcia, 11-5, 3.83) @ Yankees (Small, 3-0, 3.15), 1:05 PM

Rangers (Rogers, 11-4, 2.77) @ Red Sox (Arroyo, 9-7, 4.24), 7:05 PM

Mets (Benson, 7-4, 3.72) @ Padres (Lawrence, 6-11, 4.43), 10:05 PM

Other Notes

-An arbitrator ruled Kenny Rogers' 20-game suspension unjust and he ended his suspension 13 games in. My question is, who the hell are all these arbitrators, and how are they more powerful than Bud Selig? I'd make a good arbitrator someday.

-The Mets lost on the road last night. Big suprise. Even Pedro Martinez isn't immune to the road woes. The loss drops the Mets to 21-32 on the road.

-Herm Edwards announced Chad Pennington (shoulder) and Ty Law won't play in the Jets fisr preseason game on August 13th. Pennington's rehabilitation is still on schedule and he's expected to be ready for the season opener in Kansas City.

-Seattle phenom SP Felix Hernandez pitched 8 shutout innings last night at Safeco, as the M's beat the Twins. But I still like Zach Duke better.

Welcome to NY, Ty

2005-08-09T13:28:00.000-04:00

Today marks the first day I've ever opened up with football, and it's for good reason. Ty Law's coming to town.

The three-time Super Bowl winner with the Patriots still has some fire left in him, as evidenced by some of his statements during the introductory press conference yesterday. His words were along the lines of he had nothing left to prove in New England, and wants to win a championship with New York.

Questions are there about his health and age, and he's no doubt a risk. But ask yourself this: would the Jets win the Super Bowl this year with Ray Mickens starting at CB? Of course not. Peyton Manning could pick him apart like he did with Roc Alexander in last year's postseason. Law may be a bust, and he by no means guarantees a Jets Super Bowl win or even a playoff birth, but the Jets can't win without him.

2005 is our chance.

Yanks, BoSox Win, Stay 3.5 Apart

Boston keeps hitting. No matter who they play or who's pitching, they seem to score runs. Which is good, because they can't seem to find much starting pitching.

Wade Miller got rocked last night, albeit by an offensive juggernaut in Texas, but he hasn't been what Boston expected since coming off the DL in May. He's just 4-4 with a 4.95 ERA in 16 starts, and averages barely over 5 innings per start. Forcing any bullpen, and especially the weak Boston bullpen, to get 12 outs is not an economical thing to do. Miller may be the guy to lose his rotation spot when Curt Schilling returns to the top of the starting staff.

That said, Boston's still hot. They've won 9 of 11 and remained 3.5 ahead of the Yankees in the AL East with last night's victory over Texas. Tony Graffanino hit a go-ahead, three-run home run in the fifth that proved to be the difference. Jeremi Gonzalez got the win in relief, as he posted 2.2 innings of shutout baseball.

The Yanks beat an old friend in El Duque, 3-2, last night to keep pace with Boston. It was only the Yankees' second victory this season when they've scored under 4 runs. Alex Rodriguez hit his 31st home run, and Mike Mussina picked up the win with 6 good innings.

Today's Schedule

Rangers (Benoit, 3-1, 2.49) @ Red Sox (Clement, 11-3, 4.67), 7:05 PM

White Sox (Contreras, 6-6, 4.41) @ Yankees (Chacon, 1-7, 3.72), 7:05 PM

Mets (Martinez, 12-3, 2.81) @ Padres (Park, 8-5, 5.84), 10:05 PM

Other Notes

-To make room on the roster and on the cap for Ty Law, the Jets released Ray Mickens on Monday. Mickens' spot as a nickelback will be filled by second-year Oklahoma product Derrick Strait.

-Kaz Matsui comes off the DL today, but in a bench role. He has lost his job at second base to Miguel Cairo. To make room for Matsui on the roster, Doug Mientkiewicz may be DL'd because of injuries sustained during a mid-basepath takeout slide against Milwaukee.

A Flicker Of Leit

2005-08-08T10:18:00.000-04:00

Al Leiter gave the Yankees a strong outing yesterday. And, they needed it. Badly.

Al went 5.2 innings of shutout baseball to earn his 5th win of the season, and 2nd with the Yankees. But before the game, the Yanks got some bad news on two pitchers and their respective injuries.

Randy Johnson, who tweaked his back covering first base on Saturday in Toronto, prbably will miss his next start. He's been uncharacteristically brittle this season, which is troublesome for the Yankees because Johnson is a month away from being 42. Johnson's 2005 is more likely a result of dimishing skills do to age than it is an adjustment period or tough-luck yet.

Carl Pavano might be done for the year. After tossing a rehab start, he was expected to be able to go on Tuesday, but was scratched. Pavano proclaimed that his shoulder "didn't feel right", and now is off to Alabama to see the dreaded Dr. James Andrews. Don't expect him back for anytime soon.

So without Johnson for a start or two, and Pavano for a long time, here's the Yankees rotation as we stand now:

1. Mike Mussina
2. Aaron Small
3. Shawn Chacon
4. Al Leiter
5. Hideo Nomo

Priceless.

The Yankees won yesterday but didn't gain ground on Boston, who remained 3.5 up on the Yanks by squeezing out a win at Minnesota. Manny Ramirez homered, and Curt Schilling earned another save.

Home Cooking

Nobody can beat the Mets at home. It's just too bad the Mets can't beat anybody on the road.

The road is where the Mets are headed now, after sweeping Chicago. We're off the to the West Coast, for 3 against the NL-West leading Padres and 3 against the Dodgers. While we should beat these teams, don't bank on it. the Mets are just 21-31 on the road, good for a .403 winning percentage.

Victor Zambrano pitched a great game last night, going 8 strong innings. The only blemishes were back-to-back doubles by the Cubs' Michael Barrett and Jose Macias that plated a run. Zambrano won his 6th game of the year, and lowered his ERA to an even 4.

Cliff Floyd and David Wright provided most of the offense for the Mets. Floyd was 3-for-3 with two RBI, including a long solo home run, his 26th of the season. Although Wright had only 1 hit, he drove in 3 runs, 2 on productive outs. Wright has 64 RBI on the season, second on the team, and is on pace to drive in 93. He has an outside shot at 100, very impressive for a 22-year-old.

Other Notes

-Three Cy Young frontrunners pitched on Sunday: Dontrelle Willis for Florida, Roger Clemens for Houston, and Chris Carpenter for the Cards. Clemens continued to pull away from the pack. Willis and Carpenter both had fantastic outings, but their ERA's no longer compare to that of Clemens, who now gets some run support to go with it. With 7 innings and no earned runs against San Francisco, Clemens improved to 11-4, 1.38 on the season. He also lowered his unreal road ERA to 0.37.

Roller Coaster Ride

2005-08-06T20:52:00.000-04:00

A week after I bury the Mets season, they come back firing. After two straight wins over Chicago, the Mets are now just 3 games behind Wild Card leader Houston.

In my heart of hearts, I don't think this team can make the playoffs. But they seem to promise one thing that last year's club couldn't; remaining in contention through the summer and playing exciting baseball throughout.

The "surge" is likely a result of the recent homestand; the Mets are a drastically better team at home than on the road, and now have played six more home games than they have road games. Houston, on the other hand, has played 59 road games against 51 home games.

All the Mets need to get back in the race is a great road trip. However, they're running out of oppurtunities. The harsh reality is, the 2005 Mets are no better than a .500 club.

But hey, they're watchable. What more can a man ask?

Randy Rocked

11-7, 4.29. Those are Randy Johnson's numbers for 2005.

He was supposed to be the ace. The Yankees' answer to Curt Schilling. The one guy they lacked last year against Boston.

Hell, some things don't work out as they were planned. Johnson's fall to mediocrity has been fast and sudden, and the questions surrounding the pitching staff are even greater in 2005 after spending $116 million on three starters, Johnson, Carl Pavano, and Jaret Wright, all of whom have been major busts in the Big Apple. The most consistent starter at this point is journeyman Aaron Small, and even John Sterling knows deep down that fairy tale is destined to hit a brick wall soon.

For the first time since I began following baseball, I can say this with confidence: the Yankees will not qualify for the postseason. They just aren't good enough. And, damn, it feels good to watch the Empire crumble.

Other Notes

-Zach Duke has given up a season-high 3 earned runs tonight through seven innings, but it appears as if he's in line for victory number 5. He's in the process of outpitching Odalis Perez and the LA Dodgers.

Absence Terminated

2005-08-04T17:41:00.000-04:00

There have been many reasons I haven't posted in a few days, mainly, because of laziness. Another major contributor is the death of the Mets playoff hopes on Friday, which has a major emotional impact on someone like me. Yet, I've sucked it up and continued to enjoy life, and now return.

It would be maddening to write article-length entries on everything that's happened since July 30, so I'll go with the bullet-style format. Enjoy.

-Willie Randolph can't manage a ball game. He's a nice guy, but managing isn't his field. After using Robbie Hernandez and Braden Looper for 2 innings apiece and 34 and 35 pitches respectively in the Tuesday night game, Randolph summons the two once more on Wednesday and predictably, the plan fails. Hernandez gives up a game tying homer to the impressive Carlos Lee in the eighth, and Looper allows a two-run single to Lyle Overbay in the ninth that puts the Brewers up for good. Looper's been very solid as of late, but his inability to retire lefties is a liability in a closer; their .293 average against him is not acceptable and although he makes a serviceable closer, he's better in a setup role.

-Willie Randolph can't manage a ball game, part two. After running Hernandez out there on Wednesday off of a 2-innings performance, you think he'd realize his 40-year-old fireballer needs a day off. Not! Willie once again calls on Robbie, and poor Robbie labors to the tune of five earner runs in one inning. Instead of staying with Danny Graves, who had retired three batters in a row in a sharp eighth inning, Randolph goes to the overworked righthanded once more and once again it costs him a game.

-The Red Sox are red hot, winners of eight straight. It's a great move for them that they didn't move Manny Ramirez, who's been tearing the cover off the ball since the trade rumors died down. Boston, now 17 games over .500, looks to be putting together a second-half run reminiscent of the torrid streak they went on last year.

-The Yankees can't pitch. They got away with bad outings on Saturday and Sunday due to an overworked Angels bullpen, but have paid for their poor starting pitching in Cleveland. Al Leiter and Mike Mussina each gave up six earned runs, and the Yanks lost both games. They enter tonight at Cleveland 5 back of Boston and fadin' fast.

-Baltimore fired Lee Mazzilli today, which isn't entirely justified, but it probably had to be done. New York idol Maz had that team playing over their collective head for three months, and now pays the price with his job as they come back to earth. If they played consistent .500 ball the whole year, he'd probably still have his job. That said, the Orioles have lost 16 of 20 and if they don't make a move now, they'd give the impression to the public that it's okay to lose games and therefore suffer in the box office.

-Rafael Palmeiro is a lying liar. You all know the story by now and I won't recount the details, but I'm tired of these athletes and their phony little excuses for cheating. At least have the class to fess up when you get caught, but class is likely a concept that eludes Palmeiro.

-Zach Duke is the man. He's now 4-0, 0.92 in 6 starts, most recently an 8.1 inning, 1 run performance in a victory over Atlanta. It may be early to be breaking out the Steve Carlton comparisons and the Hall-of-Fame ballots, but it's pretty hard not to at this stage of the game.

-The NHL free agent season has been entertaining. The Isles brought in a few guys that I like, but I won't bother trying to spell their names. With everybody in a different place and a vastly different game in the offing, the 2005-6 NHL season threatens to be mildly entertaining.

-I went to Jets camp a few days back. Chad Pennington looks rusty, Jay Fiedler looks terrible, and Laveranues Coles looks like he's hurting. Other than that, all's well. The wonder from down under, Aussie punter Ben Graham, looks to be an asset, and Mike Nugent is somewhat impressive as well. So, we can kick but we can't score.

-I'll be at Shea tomorrow, to see Tommy Glavine once more. I hope it isn't brutally hot out, but it threatens to be just that. I can gut it out, no worries.

-Yankees @ Cleveland tonight, Chacon and Millwood. Chacon tries to give a second consecutive strong start to start his Yankee career, and Millwood tries to turn his impressive ERA into a W. He's getting no run support, as evidenced by his 5-9 record despite a stellar 3.18 ERA.

Goodbye To 2005

2005-07-30T11:57:00.000-04:00

Above is the 2005 New York Mets gravestone. Last night, they died.

Take this quote from me on July 24th: "I wouldn't have sent Benson out there for the eighth...if he struggles to get through the fifth inning Friday at Houston because of his high pitch count today (125?) those are much bigger pitches than 4-0 in the eighth against LA."

Damn, do I look smart today. Benson struggled through 5.1 innings at Houston and gave up three home runs as the Mets lost to surging Houston for the second straight night, 5-2, to fall games behind Houston with a sweep being a realistic possiblity.

The only real bright spot for the Mets was more success from journeyman reliever Juan Padilla, who contributed two more scoreless relief innings. He hasn't allowed a run in 7.1 innings since being recalled from Norfolk, where he dominated International League batter to the tune of a 1.44 ERA. This guy's looking like quite a find.

The hot rumor last night had Manny Ramirez go to the Mets in a three way deal involving Tampa and Boston. Here was the supposed trade:

Mets Get

OF Manny Ramirez from BOS
RP Danys Baez from TB

Red Sox Get

1B Aubrey Huff from TB
OF Mike Cameron from NYM
RP Aaron Heilman from NYM

Devil Rays Get

SP Yusmiero Petit from NYM (AA)
OF Lastings Milledge from NYM (AA)
C Kelly Shoppach from BOS (AAA)
SP Anibel Sanchez from BOS (AA)

I don't like this trade form either a Mets or a Red Sox perspective. I will break down the trade later on and give my opinions the deal.

Ownage

The Angels are the true 'daddies'. In eight games against the Yankees this year, Anaheim is 6-2. Even last night, with a rookie starting, off of a bullpen-depleting 18-inning loss to Toronto, facing the Yanks most consistent starter Mike Mussina, Los Angeles still dominated. They took the lead in the second inning and never coughed it up.

Johnny O Heroics

Even when he was a Yankee, I had a hard time disliking John Olerud. As a matter of fact, I still loved him in pinstripes, like I do with Al Leiter right now. But it certainly sweeter to see my old favorite Mets hitting Grand Slams in a Red Sox uniform than it was watching him seemingly put the nail in Boston's coffin during Game 2 of last year's ALCS.

Curt Schilling nailed down his fourth save but retiring two consecutive batters in the ninth to end the game. He finally looks like he can contribute in 2005.

Boston won, and the Yankees lost. "Doesn't get better than that." With the win, Boston moved 2.5 games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East, and is two up in the loss column.

Today's Schedule

Angels (Byrd, 9-7, 4.10) @ Yankees (Chacon, 1-7, 4.09), 1:20 PM

Twins (Lohse, 7-9, 4.45) @ Red Sox (Wells, 8-5, 4.57), 7:05 PM

Mets (Glavine, 7-8, 4.69) @ Astros (Pettitte, 8-7, 2.73), 7:05 PM

Other Notes

-Two trades went down yesterday: the Orioles shipped OF Larry Bigbie to Colorado for OF Eric Byrnes, and the Padres sent 1B Phil Nevin to Arlington for Texas SP Chan Ho Park.

-The Jets opened camp yesterday, and two keys remain unsigned: rookie K Mike Nugent, and DE John Abraham, who's holding out for a new contract. The Jets have tendered him a franchise tag, which he has yet to sign.

-Twins CF Torii Hunter injured an ankle and is out for 4-6 weeks. This hurts the Twins, who are already struggling for runs.

Is This The End?

2005-07-29T11:43:00.000-04:00

When you send Pedro Martinez to the mound, you expect to win. When you face a rookie with an 8.25 ERA, you expect to win. When you send Pedro the the mound against a guy with an 8.25 ERA...

...you lose.

Last night's loss probably signals the Mets squandered their final chance to be contenders in 2005, as they now fall 3 behind Houston while facing unfavorable pitching matchups twice come the weekend. If the Mets fall further behind Houston, there's very little chance of Houston being caught. They're on the same roll they got on last year, and seem destined for greater things than the 2005 Mets have in store.

You can't blame it on Pedro. Petey went 8 innings of 2 run ball, and threw 117 pitches on four days rest. (Remember, Pedro's only an 100 pitch pitcher? He can't pitch on normal rest?) While Martinez has proven the critics wrong, myself included, the Mets have made the skeptics look quite smart on this road trip, validating the opinions of those that say this is just a .500 team.

Trade rumors were swirling about Alfonso Soriano throughout the late afternoon last night and into the evening, and Aaron Heilman, Victor Zambrano, and Mike Cameron were mentioned as possible bait along with top prospects Lastings Milledge and Yusmiero Petit. I know this sounds crazy, but if the Mets had won last night, I'd do the deal to get Soriano into Houston tonight. Since the Mets lost, though, I'd forget it and stay put at the deadline.

1-9, 7.11; 1-7, 4.09

Those are the numbers on the newest Yankee, Shawn Chacon, over the past two seasons.

Impressive, huh? Well, the Yankees are so pitching starved a warm body would do, and they hope an escape from the thin air of Colorado and some more run support can turn Chacon into a viable option. He'll be a starter in the short term, and probably a bullpen guy down the road when Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright return.

The Yanks beat Minnesota behind Aaron Small yesterday. Small's had two good starts with the Yankees, and retired the last 12 batters he faced. Odds are, however, this guy implodes like Darrell May and Tim Redding did. Give him one more start before the wheels come off the track.

Today's Schedule

Twins (Silva, 7-4, 3.38) @ Red Sox (Miller, 3-4, 4.57)

Angels (Santana, 5-4, 5.64) @ Yankees (Mussina, 10-5, 3.83)

Mets (Benson, 7-3, 3.14) @ Astros (Rodriguez, 5-4, 6.18)

All's Well That Ends Well

2005-07-28T11:49:00.000-04:00

If you have to lose 2 of 3 to the worst team in baseball, preferably, you win the third game to get out of town on a high. That's what the Mets did last night with a 9-3 thumping of the Rockies.

After falling asleep for the whole series, the bats were awakened in the fifth and sixth innings. The leaders of the offense were two backups, Ramon Castro and Marlon Anderson, who went a total of 4-for-8 with 3 home runs and 5 RBI's while filling in for Mike Piazza and Mike Cameron, respectively. Everybody in the starting lineup had a hit, even Carlos Beltran, who sucks and doesn't seem to care, either. (Although the latter is admittedly an unfair accusation.)

Zamby (5-9, 3.78) finally got some runs and won for the first time since June 28th against Philadelphia. He threw 112 pitches and walked just 3 through seven innings.

Now it's off to Houston. This is, somewhat arguably, the biggest series the Mets have played since the walked out of Turner Field defeated on September 28-30, 2001.

Gaining Ground

Boston won, and the Yankees lost. It doesn't get much better than that.

Oh, but it does. Curt Schilling was able to pitch for the third straight day and be effective. After going 1.2 innings on Monday and 2 on Tuesday, Schilling was able to get the final out for Boston in their 4-1 win over Tampa on Wednesday. Schilling notched his 3rd save in Tim Wakefield's 9th victory.

Meanwhile, at the Stadium, two high-profile lefties regained last year's form. Al Leiter pitched like he did so often last year for the Mets, allowing 12 baserunners and throwing 115 pitches in five innings, en route to a early exit. Despite throwing an staggering average of 23 pitches per inning, Leiter kept the Yankees in the game by allowing just one of those baserunners to score. He exited the game losing 1-0.

Johan Santana, on the other hand, looked like pitcher who went 13-0 in the 2004 second half and won the Cy Young Award. Going 7 strong, Santana allowed no runs on seven hits in winning his tenth game for the Twins. He has been a disappointment so far this year, but a second half remotely like last year's no doubt would quiet the critics.

The Yankee bullpen let the game get out of hand in the later innings. After a scoreless 6th by Felix Rodriguez, Tanyon Sturtze, Scott Proctor, and Alex Graman allowed a combined 6 runs over 3 innings. Joe Nathan delievered his 28th save in a 7-3 Twins wins.

But rest easy, Yankee fans, as help is on the way. The Yankees claimed Hideo Nomo off waivers from Tampa yesterday, and signed him to a minor league contract. Nomo has looked completely washed up over the past two seasons, posting an 8.25 ERA last year with the Dodgers and a 7.24 with the Rays this year. Unlike the move of acquiring Al Leiter, who is a New York guy with pennant push heroics under his belt in the Big Apple, the adding of Nomo has little apparent upside.

Today's Schedule

Twins (Mays, 5-5, 4.46) @ Yankees (Small, 1-0, 4.26), 1:05 PM

Mets (Martinez, 12-3, 2.79) @ Astros (Astacio, 1-4, 8.24), 8:05 PM

The Red Sox have a scheduled off day today.

Other Notes

-The Knicks are introducing living legend Larry Brown to coach the team today. Brown has signed a 5-year deal worth nearly 60 million dollars to come to New York.

-Zach Duke, the Pirates phenom favorably viewed here at Defeat the Empire, went two scoreless innings in Miami last night before rain delay force him to leave the game. Duke extended his scoreless streak to 24 consecutive innings, however, and lowered his ERA to 0.87.

Heads Up

2005-07-27T14:26:00.000-04:00

Ouch.

Matt Clement took a liner off the head from Carl Crawford, in what looked like a continuation of last night's bad luck. But after a seasaw battle, the Sox rallied for two in the ninth off Danys Baez and another two in the tenth off Baez to win the game. Curt Schilling got the win to improve to 3-4 after taking the loss last night.

Clement is said to be okay, and the results of tests were negative, but he's still being held in the hospital for precautionary measures. He's likely headed to the DL, and who knows if he'll be effective when he comes back. Many pitchers, such as Billy Taylor, Kaz Ishii, and Jerrod Riggan haven't been as effective after returning from getting hit with a line drive.

The Yankees won easily last night against the popgun Twins, and the Red Sox keep a one-game lead in the AL East by holding two more wins than the Yanks. The teams are equal in the loss column.

Just When They Get on a Roll...

...they start to suck again.

After a great homestand, the Mets go in to Colorado and promptly drop the first two. Granted, the Rockies are a decent home team, but this kind of performance is so typical of the 2005 Mets. If the Rockies complete a sweep tonight, I won't be at all surprised. And if the Mets get shut out tonight, I can't say as I'll be shocked.

The big goat of Tuesday's game is Mike Cameron, who went 0-for-5 with 4 strikeouts. We know Mike is going to strike out 140 times, but it's the way he's does it lately. With the bases loaded and the Mets down two in the seventh, he takes a 3-2 pitch right down the middle for strike three and the third out. And with a chance at redemption in the ninth, and Jose Reyes on second as the tying run, Cameron once again takes strike three, this time to end the game. After this, listening on the radio, I scream "swing the f***ing bat!" and knock the radio to the floor.

I hope to God Willie dropps the struggling Cameron down in the lineup tonight. But he's too stupid, that isn't happening.

Today's Schedule

Red Sox (Wakefield, 8-9, 4.42) @ Devil Rays (McClung, 1-5, 7.07), 4:15 PM

Twins (Santana, 9-5, 3.89) @ Yankees (Leiter, 4-8, 6.43), 7:05 PM

Mets (Zambrano, 4-9, 3.86) @ Rockies (Wright, 5-10, 5.30), 9:05 PM

Other Notes

-The Knicks have reportedly agreed on a 5 year, $50 million contract with Larry Brown. There may be a press conference tomorrow to announce the hiring.

-Zach Duke makes his fifth start for Pittsburgh today. The highly touted 22-year-old lefthander has gone 3-0, 0.93 since being called up from Triple-A Indianapolis.

-The Jets open camp in two days. They signed second round pick CB Justin Miller to a contract earlier today.

Bad Breaks

2005-07-26T13:29:00.000-04:00

It seemed like every time I looked at the Boston game or the Met game last night, either team was getting a bad break. Guys were getting thrown out at home. There were 3-4-1 putouts. A bad call cost the Mets a run. Cliff Floyd throws to the wrong base. Fly balls die at the track. Among other things.

After Curt Schilling pitched a great ninth in Tampa, he gives up an infield single to Crawford (another bad break,) and eventually a game-winning double to Aubrey Huff to end it. Curt's 2-4 in 2005.

And the Mets, in their only good pitching matchup of the series in Colorado, can't touch Jose Acevedo through six, outside of one inning, and fall asleep in game 1 at Coors after a long rain delay. Tom Glavine pitched well enough to win, and three runs against the likes of Acevedo and Mike DeJean (remember him?) is unacceptable. My guess is the Mets were tired after a long flight without the benefit of an off day.

The Mets can't afford to get swept out of Colorado, which is now what I think will happen. That could spell disaster once they head to Houston. Tonight's game is huge for the Mets, and the key is the offense. It's time to throw up a ten-spot and smack these guys around the ballpark.

Trade Winds

Alot of reports suggest the Mets may be on track to get Alfonso Soriano. He has really struggled outside of Arlington since the Rangers got him, and I'd be very leery of trading for him. Texas reportedly wants both of the Mets top prospects, Lastings Milledge and Yusmiero Petit, and that alone would have me hanging up the phone. I wouldn't give up either for any player on the market currently.

The Mets are also interested in relievers Jose Mesa of Pittsburgh and Danys Baez. I love Baez, he always converts the big save, and can get 4 outs if you need him to. He was very impressive in Tampa's late June series at Yankee Stadium, saving all three of Tampa's wins in the four-gamer. Mesa isn't too bad, either, but he's old and can fold under pressure. If he comes cheap I'd add him, but an upper-tier prospect or even Aaron Heilman or Heath Bell is too high and asking price.

Welcome to NY, Larry

It seems as if Larry Brown's headed to the Knicks. I hope so. He got Chauncey Billups to be a great clutch player, who knows what he might be able to do with Stephon Maurbury. The Knicks do have talent on the roster and Brown's the guy to exercise it. The Knicks lost a whopping 22 games by 6 points or less in 2004-5, and Brown's coaching savvy no doubt wins a bunch of those games. With Brown, I think the Knicks are easily a 45-win team.

Sunny Delight

2005-07-24T19:23:00.000-04:00

Two afternoon game wins + One Washington Loss + One Atlanta Loss = 3.5 games out of Wild Card and Division lead. Yesterday the hero was Jose Reyes, today it's Kris Benson.

Everybody whined about the trade last year (although not nearly as much as they did for the Kazmir deal) that sent Matt Peterson, Ty Wigginton, and Justin Huber away to get Benson and Jeff Keppenger. Peterson has a 6.11 ERA at AA, Wiggy's toiling in Indianapolis, and Huber has been moves to first base, thus killing his value. Kepp was killing the ball at Norfolk before hurting his knee, and Benson has become one of the most consistent starters in the National League.

Benson might be one of the only guys who has experienced a decrease in pressure in coming to New York. In Pittsburgh, he was regarded as the savior to a struggling organization after being drafted first overall in 1996. Despite promising flashes, mainly in his rookie season of 1999, Benson battled injuries and never busted out of mediocrity. Now in New York, he's settled in as a no. 2 starter behind the 12-3 Pedro Martinez and started to reach his potential at age 30.

Benson has improved 7-3, 3.14 this year after his 125-pitch, 8 inning shutout performance today, and the Mets have won 12 of his 16 starts (which favorably compares to Pedro's 13 wins in 20 starts.) While much of that is due to very good run support, he still has turned in 11 quality starts in his last 13 appearances. He's been worth every penny of his widely criticized $22.5 million contract. Mets fans have come to love Benson (and his wife.)

Mike Piazza hit another homer today, no. 12 on the year and no. 390 of his career. I'm pulling more than anyone for 10 more this year from Mike so he can retire in a Met uniform, with 400 dingers.

Colorado's up next. We send Glavine against a relief pitcher tomorrow, Ishii (ick) on Tuesday, and then Victor Zambrano against Jamey Wright. I'd certainly take 2 of 3 with tomorrow being a must-win as it's our only decidedly favorable pitching matchup. I'm going to say the Mets drop 2 of three, however, losing the final two games after a blowout Monday. Depite Colorado's terrible record, they have played 1 game over .500 in Coors this year.

Pessimism aside, the Mets play a bad team now in what's shaping up as a red-shot second half. If the Mets take advantage of a bad team in Colorado, which is never a given due to the nature of the Mets 2005 season, the four-gamer in Houston becomes the biggest series the Mets have played since dropping 2 of 3 in heartbreaking fashion to Atlanta, September 28-30 of 2001.

Anna + Kris Benson say...

Lets Go Mets!!!!!!!!

Bad Zamby

2005-07-22T22:58:00.000-04:00

Victor Zambrano has been a victim of poor run support this year, but today, he just plain sucked. He looked a little like the old Zambrano who walked everyone in sight, but today, those walks were replaced with 10 hits. He left after just 4.2 innings, having allowed just 6 runs.

I figured the game was over, so I left the TV and came downstairs. After about a half hour, I gave in to impulse and checked the score on Sportsline. And...wham! Carlito smacks one out and it's 6-5.

Being a Met fan for 8 years now, you get to know certain things. One being when you're going to lose a ball game. On the phone with my dad today, I told him the Mets were losing tonight, and tomorrow. Even though Carlos gave us false hope, I knew better.

Yet, I was disappointed when the Mets squandered an oppurtunity in the seventh and went down without a peep to the likes of Alvarez, Schmoll, and Brazoban in the last two innings. Hell, we got Pedro tomorrow against a rookie. We should win. (Although I predict a loss.)

One thing about the broadcast today: Dave O'Brien wouldn't stop praising Yhency Brazoban. When he was in the bullpen warming, O'Brien said "Brazoban has done quite an admirable job for Jim Tracy's Dodgers in Eric Gagne's absence...", or something to that effect. And then, when Brazoban entered the game, O'Brien called the rookie closer "a revelation." Huh? Yhency entered tonight's game with a 5.87 ERA and four blown saves, plus five losses. Granted, Brazoban shut the Mets down in the ninth, but he certainly hasn't been all that in Chavez Ravine come 2005.

AL East

Boston won the opener in Chicago, 6-5, on Thursday. After Curt Schilling blew a one-run lead in the top of the eighth, Manny Ramirez got that run back with a long shot to left in the top of the ninth. Schilling returned to shut down the Chisox in the bottom of the ninth to earn his second win on the year after blowing a save. Curt was able to throw 39 pitches without tiring, which is encouraging.

Unfortunately, they got blown out tonight by a 6-run sixth that included two three-run home runs off of Tim Wakefield; one by AJ Pierzynski, the other by Juan Uribe.

The Yankees lost a nice one last night. Taking a three-run lead into the seventh when Randy Johnson had to leave with an apparent injury. Tanyon Sturtze was unavailable, so Joe Torre has to go to Scott Proctor and Buddy Groom instead and they promptly loaded the bases. After Darrin Erstad was retired by Groom, Torre summoned Tom Gordon to face Vladimir Guerrero. And in the immortal words of John Madden...

...boom. Vladi goes yard, Angels go up 6-5 and hold it to defeat the Yanks.

Tonight, Al Leiter looks like the guy who pitched for the Marlins this year, throwing tons of pitches and giving up even more runs. Too bad the Yanks can hit the livin' shit out of the ball, so no lead is safe. Alex Graman is warming in the bullpen...his ERA with the big club last year was 19.80 in two starts. Good luck, Alex!

The Duke of Pittsburgh, Part II
Zach Duke has been favorably mentioned here before. Yet, he won't stop dominating.

After outdueling Greg Maddux at the Wig in his last start, Duke went back home to Pittsburgh and picked up where he left off. He allowed just an unearned run on eight hits, four walks, and five strikeouts, going seven innings for his third win in four major league starts. He lowered his ERA to a stellar 0.93.

Dukey's still very young at 22, but we'll keep track of him as this heralded prospect tours the majors. The Pirates have a keeper.

Rollin'

2005-07-21T16:04:00.000-04:00

When Kaz Ishii outduels Jake Peavy, you know it's something special. Or, it should be. Peavy is an All-Star who won the ERA crown in the National League last year; Ishii shouldn't be in the Mets rotation. Peavy entered the game with 8 wins; Ishii with 8 losses. It had the mark of disaster.

It was anything but.

The Mets completed the sweep today, and won their fourth straight, with a 12-0 win over the Padres. Ishii went six shutout innings, pitching his way out of numerous james, and collected just his third victory against 8 losses. Pavy got bombed, giving up 7 runs in 5+ innings, raising his ERA by .39 and falling to 8-4. Peavy hadn't given up seven earned runs in a start since July 4, 2003.

So what's next? The Los Angeles Dodgers, who should be an easy target for the red-hot Mets. The Dodgers did beat the Phillies twice this week, but have gone a pitiful 31-50 since starting 12-2. The Mets will send their best three starters, Victor Zambrano, Pedro Martinez, and Kris Benson to the hill this weekend, and another sweep should be the goal.

After this, it's off to Coors Field to face the lowly Rockies. It's not impossible that the Mets could be only two or three games out of the wild card when they head to Houston for what's shaping up to be a huge 4-game set with the Astros.

The AL East

Boston remained a half-game ahead of the Yankees last night, as both teams pulled home victories. Boston has to play the juggernaut White Sox in the upcoming series, but the Yankees also get a good team, the Los Angeles Angels. Tonight's schedule:

Red Sox (Clement, 10-3, 4.21) @ White Sox (Buehrle, 11-3, 2.58)

Yankees (Johnson, 10-6, 4.23) @ Angels (Colon, 11-6, 3.64)

I hate to say it, but come 1:00 AM, the Yanks will be back in first place.

Good Woody

2005-07-20T12:22:00.000-04:00

I usually open up with something about the AL East. Not today.

I attended my first walf-off homer victory last night, watching Chris Woodward smack one into the night off soft-tossing Chris Hammond, ending three-plus hours of good baseball and sending 37, 945 home happy.

Many things went well on this night, one of them being Kris Benson. He seems to be worth the money we gave him in the offseason, any maybe even the prospects we sent away to acquire him. With seven stellar innings last night, he lowered his ERA to 3.40. He allowed just two hits and no runs if you eliminate Padres shortstop Khalil Greene.

Another thing that went right was the changing of the lineup by the stubborn and clueless Willie Randolph. After ninety-plus games of watching David Wright slug 70 points higher (!) than Mike Piazza, he finally moved Wright ahead of Mike in the lineup. Now, I love Mike, and he's probably my favorite current Met, and I'm the first to defend him, but it was time. Wright responded with two hits, including a double.

Willie's lone bonehead move was bringing in Dae-Sung Koo in the eighth. Koo has held lefties to a respectable .243 average here in 2005, but that number is incredibly misleading. In addition to nine hits by lefties off Koo, Koo has hit 2 left-handed batters and walked 8, meaning an on-base percentage of .475. True to form, Koo walked two lefties and gave up a base hit to another in his outing, and the only hitter he retired was right-handed hitting Mark Loretta. The other out came on Mike Piazza's caught stealing of ALCS hero Dave Roberts. Luckily for Koo and the Mets, the amazing Robbie Hernandez came on and stranded two runners to get the Mets out of a jam.

All-in-all, it was a fun night. I might be back to Shea for Pedro's upcoming start, and I have tickets to see them take on the Cubs come August. Cheers to Woody for smacking the first walk-off homer in games I've attended.

Just like that...

Boston's back in first place.

I truly do hope that the Yankees enjoyed their 24 hours of fame, but hey, maybe they'll never see first place again. The above Curt Schilling certainly agrees, and he did his part last night with a nine-pitch, three-out, solid outing, earning the save in Boston's 51st win of the season.

Meanwhile, in Arlington, the Yankees engaged in a pitching duel involving Mike Mussina and Chan Ho Park. Mussina pitched six shutout innings before exiting, and Park posted seven scoreless frames before allowing a one-out RBI single to Robinson Cano in the eighth. The lead what short lived, however, as Hank Blalock would go yard in the eighth to put Texas ahead two to one. In the words of John Sterling:

"That ball is lined by Blalock...in between the outfielders, and off the wall... (Pause) ...And Gone! That ball is gone! It went over the wall!"

No doubt Mike and the Dog will make fun of Sterling over that one. It was laugh-out-loud funny for the Yankee hater, in the car ride home from a walk-off victory at Shea.

The Burnett Sweepstakes

Was last night AJ Burnett's last start in a Marlins uniform? If it he, he went out in style. He gave up three runs through six innings, en route to his sixth win.

That said, the Baltimore rumors are dying down a little, and Pittsburgh seems no longer interested in being involved. Florida may have to take Sidney Ponson or pay part of Mike Lowell's salary if they want to dump Lowell on the Orioles.

Today's Schedule

Boston plays a day game at Fenway. It's Wells (7-5, 4.73) v. Hendrickson (4-6, 6.35).

San Diego (Williams, 5-5, 4.15) @ Mets (Glavine, 6-7, 4.71)

Yankees (Small, season debut) @ Rangers (Benoit, 1-0, 0.69)

Just like the old days

2005-07-19T14:00:00.000-04:00

The New York Yankees are in first place. What a nightmare.

We were all ecstatic when they hit 11-19, when they dropped three of four to the Devil Rays, whent he Mets led 4-1 in the seventh inning in a bid to sweep the Yanks out of the stadium, and whent he Red Sox handed a 17-1 beatdown to the Yanks (twice). But now, it's just like it always is. First place for the Bombers.

Last night's game was a disaster for the Yankees pitching and defense. Kevin Brown gave up 10 hits and 6 runs in 4.1 innings. Scott Proctor and Wayne Franklin had to pitch in a close game. And Bernie dropped yet another flyball that ended up costing the Yanks 3 runs. But in the end, thanks to 3.1 innings of stellar relief from Sturtze and Rivera plus 11 runs, New York won an ugly one and now are in first place due to the Boston Red Sox 3-1 loss to Tampa. Boston now has gone 1-6 in their last seven games.

The AL East is extremely tight right now. With the Yankees in first at 50-41, both Boston and Baltimore are a half-game back with matching 50-42 records. Plus, rumor has it Baltimore is about to get some help.

Burnett to Camden

AJ Burnett has some of the best pure stuff in major league baseball, with his blistering fastball and knee-buckling breaking pitches. Despite this, He has struggled in his career with Florida at times with numerous arm injuries and command issues. He remains the top pitcher on the market, and Baltimore is expected to snatch him up within 24 hours.

Many trade rumors have circulated involving Burnett-to-Baltimore, but the latest one is a 3-team deal that involves the Pittsburgh Pirates in addition to Florida and Baltimore. Here is the current hot rumor:

Baltimore Orioles get

SP AJ Burnett from FLA (5-6, 3.64 ERA, 118.2 IP, 114 K, 44 BB)
1B Daryle Ward from PIT (.258 BA, 11 HR, 52 RBI, .322 OBP, .435 SLG)

Pittsburgh Pirates get

3B Mike Lowell from FLA (.232 BA, 4 HR, 37 RBI, .284 OBP, .356 SLG)
Cash

Florida Marlins get

RP Jorge Julio from BAL (3-2, 3.95 ERA, 43.1 IP, 39 K, 14 BB, 0 SV)
OF Larry Bigbie from BAL (.257 BA, 4 HR, 19 RBI, .319 OBP, .380 SLG)
SP Mark Redman from PIT (4-9, 4.01 ERA, 121.1 IP, 64 K, 36 BB)
SP Hayden Penn from BAL (2-2, 6.75 ERA, 33.1 IP, 14 K, 19 BB in MLB; 3-4, 4.04 ERA, 62.1 IP, 67 K, 23 BB in AA)

Analysis: If Florida has to give Burnett up, this is probably the best deal they can get. With Lowell moving to Pittsburgh, the Marlins can move Miguel Cabrera back to third base and plug Larry Bigbie into the hole in left field. Mark Redman, who was on Florida's 2003 World Series team, is a somewhat suitable replacement for Burnett, and Jorge Julio might be able to close out games for the bullpen-hungry Marlins. Hayden Penn is Baltimore's top prospect, is only 20, and in a year or two could be just as good as Burnett. While the Orioles clearly get a talented pitcher in Burnett, he is prone to pitching below his capability. In addition, he is from the National League, which hasn't been a formula for success for Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Randy Johnson. He could dominate for Baltimore, or he could be a maddening disappointment. Likely the latter. Pittsburgh gets to deal a problem in Redman, and acquires Lowell while losing Daryle Ward. Lowell had heated up in recent weeks, but still is hitting with no power. He won't cost Pittsburgh too much financially as alot of his salary will be paid by Florida.

Today's Schedule

I'll be at Shea tonight to see the Mets and the Padres. I'll see Kris Benson (6-3, 3.57) v. Brian Lawrence (5-9, 4.27).

New York Yankees (Mike Mussina, 9-5, 4.15) @ Texas Rangers (Chan Ho Park, 8-4, 5.64)

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Casey Fossum, 4-7, 4.02) @ Boston Red Sox (Bronson Arroyo, 7-5, 4.14)

PS: Forgive me if any of the colors are off. I battle colorblindness every day of my life.

You know what doesn't look right?

2005-07-17T22:52:00.000-04:00

Al Leiter in a Yankee uniform.

I remember him as the Mets ace for seven years, the heart and soul of the Mets for seven years, and the guy who cried in the dugout after Game 5 of the 2000 World Series. It hurts me to see him as a Yankee. That said, part of me was pulling for him tonight.

Al was classic Al, throw lots of pitches but racking up the K's, and in the end, pitching well enough to win. The only run Leiter gave up though 6.1 innings was on a bloop double by Papi Ortiz.

I thought we had them in the ninth, though. I thought we had them. When Cano threw the ball into left field, I could feel it, the same thing I felt on July 24 last year when Bill Mueller hit a walk-off homer off Rivera to get the Sox rollin' in '04. This is where my beef with Terry Francona comes in.

Why the hell do you let Alex Cora, a .200 hitter with no power, hit when John Olerud is on the bench? Tito can look to game two of the ALCS last year if he needs to know what Olerud does in big games. As I expected, Cora hit into a double play to kill the rally (even though he was safe at first.)

Now the Yankees tied with Boston in the loss column. Guess what folks...this is going to be one hell of a ride, right through the last series of the year in Boston come early October.

Pedro's Show

Petey dominated again today at Shea. It took him just 61 pitches to mow through six innings and pick up his eleventh victory of the year. Some reports said Pedro's toe was hurting, and that was the reason for his early absence. Others believe it was just a plan to get his fragile arm more rest.

Juan Padilla, Heath Bell, and Dae-Sung Koo combined for three innings out of the bullpen without an earned run. Why can we shut people down when we're up 8-0, but not in a tie game? And why does Willie go to Heath Bell (4.50) in an 8-0 game, but Danny Graves (7.85) in a 2-0 game?

The Mets are at .500 now for what seems like the millionth time this season. Something tells me we're sitting with 81 wins in October.

Tomorrow's Schedule

Mets are off tomorrow.

Tampa Bay (Kazmir, 3-7, 4.59) @ Boston (Miller, 2-3, 5.03)
Yankees (Brown, 4-6, 5.48) @ Texas (R. Rodriguez, 2-1, 3.48)

Two Doses of Suffering

2005-07-16T22:44:00.000-04:00

Matt Clement looked real good until all hell broke loose with two outs in the bottom of the third. A fastball behind the back of Gary Sheffield was the precursor to what turned out to be a nightmarish afternoon at Fenway.

After the six-spot was posted in the third by the Yanks, that included a John Flaherty two-RBI double, the Sox would score and score again. But mistakes did us in.

First, Dale Sveum screwed up again by holding Kevin Millar at third on a single to centerfield. Who's in centerfield for the Yankees? These days, it's either Melky Cabrera or Bernie Williams. Cabrera looks like a deer-in-the-headlights in the outfield, with seemingly no instincts whatsoever, and Bernie has lost his job due to an exceedingly poor throwing arm that can't reach the pitcher's mound from medium-deep CF. This resulted in Doug Mirrabelli having no place to go, and getting tagged out between second and third. It's time for Sveum to go.

Another is the error by David Ortiz in the seventh that put the game out of reach. Tito was trying to get as many righthanded bats in the lineup as possible, so he put Doug Mirrabelli at DH and Ortiz at first. I think we all learned last year, on July 1 at Yankee Stadium, that Papi shouldn't be at first base. John Olerud would have easily had that grounder, and in addition, he has handled Randy Johnson well throughout his career.

Al Leiter will start for the pitching-starved Yankees tomorrow, making his first start for an AL team since September 30, 1995 with the Toronto Blue Jays. Wakey is to go for the Sox, gametime 6:00.

Can't Touch This

The Mets can't touch Atlanta Braves pitching. After scoring only on a David Wright solo shot last night, the Mets get shut out tonight by Tim Hudson, Jim Brower, Dan Kolb, and Chris Reitsma.

Getting dominated by John Smoltz and Hudson isn't what bothers me. What bothers me is that the Mets failed to score the last two nights against Kolb and Brower, who both have ERA's well in to the fives. A lineup that sports the names of Piazza, Beltran, Floyd, etc. has to beat up on mediocre pitching. At least once, anyway.

Willie Randolph showed his cluelessness once again tonight in three capacities. The first was, for a second straight night, holding Jose Reyes on first base with Mike Cameron at the plate. Cameron hasn't been able to hit a beachball this July, and Reyes is second in the National League in steals. Why the hell he isn't running is anyone's guess.

Another is that Danny Graves comes into a 2-0 game in the ninth. Why? The game is still in play, due to the bloop-and-a-blast theory. But Graves and his 7.81 ERA enters the game, and by the time he threw four pitches, a run had scored. Heath Bell hasn't pitched since the Pittsburgh series, and he clearly has been the better option this season.

The last is all the bunts. Victor Zambrano and Marlon Anderson both were presumably instructed to bunt for base hits, Zambrano with two outs and Anderson with nobody on base. Zamby has handed the bat well this year, and although he isn't a slugger, no doubt he has a far better chance of getting on base and driving in a run with swing the bat. And Anderson, who has been the NL's best pinch hitter so far in 2005, is told to drag one down the line? Please Willie, grow a brain.

The Duke of Pittsburgh

Ever heard of Zach Duke? Last year, he dominated the minor leagues at two stops and became heralded as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. This year, after doing more of the same in AAA, he's gobbling up major league hitters.

Now in three starts in the big leagues, Duke has gone at least seven innings in any appearance, and hasn't yield a run in his last 15. After picking up his first win against the Phillies on July 7, Duke outdueled Greg Maddux at Wrigley Field today to move to 2-0. Over eight innings today, he allowed just six hits and two walks, struck out four, and didn't allow a run in lowering his ERA to to a staggering 1.23.

It's very early in this 22-year-old's career, but he certainly looks like something special. Stay tuned.

17-1, Part Deux

2005-07-16T14:42:00.000-04:00

To put it in the words of my dad, "It's nice when you expect the Yankees to get killed, and then they get killed." That's exactly what happened last night, as Tim Redding got rocked just like he was supposed to left the Yankees searching for starting pitching answers.

The look to have found one, possibly, in the form of Al Leiter. Newsday is reporting that the Yankees have acquired Leiter from the Marlins in exchange for cash, and he will start tomorrow night at Fenway Park. Despite his 6.64 ERA, don't be surprised if Al has enough to contribute to one more pennant push in New York.

July 15th at Shea

I was at the Mets game last night, and I admittedly was expecting a loss to Atlanta. I'd seen it too many times before. But, the way the Mets lost was disappointing.

Tom Glavine came into last night's game a career 1-8, 8.81 against Atlanta since signing with the Mets in 2003. Surprisingly, he pitched extremely well last night, going seven strong and allowing just one run. He pitched into trouble in some of the later innings, but was able to pitch out of jams with some clutch outs. Robbie Hernandez came on to pitch the final two innings, but Jose Reyes misplayed yet another ground ball en route to allowing the go-ahead run to score in the eighth.

John Smoltz was just as good, however. The Mets didn't mount a threat against him the whole game, and the only run was scored on a David Wright shot to left that I knew was gone off the bat. Wright seemingly had hit another blast in the bottom of the ninth with two outs, but Jeff Francoeur caught it at the wall.

Willie Randolph's most questionable desicion of the game came in the eighth inning when Reyes led off with a single to left. Instead of letting Reyes steal a base, which has been Jose's only consistent attribute since August 2003, Willie has Mike Cameron hit early in the count and predictably, Cameron hits into a 6-4-3, rally-killing double play.

The good news was that we finally found another usher to let us sit in the field level. The best usher in the world, Lee, retired after last season. Our tickets were for upstairs, but the new guy on the first base line gave us great seats 15 rows from the field. I came close to a John Smoltz foul ball, but it was just a bit out of my reach.

I'll be back at Shea for July 19th v. San Diego. It's time to score some runs for Zamby (4-7, 3.58) against Tim Hudson (6-5, 3.78).

This One Hurts

2005-07-15T12:51:00.000-04:00

Curt looks like he's either still hurting, or done. Maybe both. All indications are, Curt-in-the-pen isn't gonna work. This one hurts.

The saving grace for Boston is that Tim Redding pitches today, and Darrell May on Sunday. A split should be relatively easy to get.

-----
One for the Ages

Mike's shot to right field was just classic Piazza. He took a fastball outside and eye-level and smacked it out with a vintage swing.

And more importantly, the Mets beat the Braves. We only get to say that about four times a year. Tom Glavine and John Smoltz go at it tonight it what appears to be a surefire Braves victory.

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The End of an Al?

That's Al Leiter's rookie card with the Yankees from 1988. Could his career end where is started, 17 years ago?

Leiter was designated for assignment by the Marlins yesterday, and some reports (and common sense) suggest that Leiter could be on his way to help the starting pitching-weak Yankees. Although his ERA is in ths high 6's, I wouldn't be surprised if Al can suck it up and contribute to one last pennant drive in New York.

Second Half Predictions

2005-07-12T14:21:00.000-04:00

American League East
Preseason Pick: New York Yankees
Midseason Pick: Boston Red Sox

I thought the Yankees would be a juggernaut with their offseason free-agent singings and the trade for Randy Johnson. The moves in the starting rotation certainly haven't panned out, and the saving grace for them on this current win streak has been the offense. The Yanks have proved too streaky for my tastes, and while they'll come close, Boston has proven themselves to be a better team. And, they're yet to get Curt Schilling back.

American League Central
Preseason Pick: Minnesota Twins
Midseason Pick: Chicago White Sox

I'll be honest, I didn't see the White Sox coming. They have been impressive, and it seems that every move manager Ozzie Guillen employs turns to gold. They will cool off a tad in the second half, but the Twins sit nine games back and too far away to mount a serious charge.

American League West
Preseason Pick: Los Angeles Angels
Midseason Pick: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels struggled a bit in the beginning of the year, especially offensively, but have gotten on a roll and now boast the American League's second best record. Texas might have a chance, but their pitching is too weak and inconsistent to bank on. Plus, the forthcoming suspension to Kenny Rogers will further deplete the Rangers' starting rotation.

American League Wild Card
Preseason Pick: Boston Red Sox
Midseason Pick: Minnesota Twins

I still have the Red Sox in the postseason as the AL East winner. Minnesota has struggled with injuries on the infield and a subpar Johan Santana, but they're about to get help as some of the wounded heal and Santana embarks on what should be a spectacular second half. They will have face face a charge from as many as four teams, but the Twins have the experience and the leadership to get to the postseason for the fourth straight year.

American League Champion
Preseason Pick: Los Angeles Angels
Current Pick: Boston Red Sox

Boston would be approaching 55 wins if they had even an average bullpen. Rumors have them picking up Eddie Guardado, Chad Qualls, Ricky Bottalico and Chad Bradford. I have faith in Theo Epstein to go out and get some help in the pen, to put the finishing touches on what looks like the American League's best all-around team. The White Sox can't be counted out, however, but chances are they aren't as good as they have shown. Los Angeles lacks the starting pitching to get it done in October, outside of Bartolo Colon.

National League East
Preseason Pick: Atlanta Braves
Midseason Pick: Atlanta Braves

I hate the Braves, I really do, but they win every year. This season is following a similar blueprint to many past pennant wins. Despite placing rookie after rookie in the starting lineup, and inserting relief pitchers into the starting rotation, Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone have kept this team afloat. Once Chipper Jones, John Thomson, Mike Hampton, and Tim Hudson return from their ailments, Atlanta should go on a tear and blow away the surprising Nationals as well as the rest of the division.

National League Central
Preseason Pick: St. Louis Cardinals
Midseason Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

I thought the Cards would win this divison, but I doubted they would be this good. With a solid rotation and fearsome lineup, St. Louis is poised for another runaway win in the Central. Plus, they haven't even gotten Scott Rolen rollin' yet. The Astros have a shot to mount an impressive charge, but in the Wild Card race and not against the Cardinals. The team that has disappointed me in this division is Cincinnati. I thought they could challenge St. Louis, but instead, they're challenging Milwaukee and Pittsburgh for the cellar.

National League West
Preseason Pick: San Diego Padres
Midseason Pick: San Diego Padres

This division is so weak, San Diego could play ten games under .500 from here on in and still likely win the divison with around 77-80 wins. The Giants look old, the Dodgers are plagued by injuries, Arizona has faded fast, and the Rockies just plain suck and are about to host "Fire Sale 2005." San Diego is the most complete team of the bunch, and nobody is good enough to even challenge them for the divison.

National League Wild Card
Preseason Pick: Florida Marlins
Midseason Pick: Florida Marlins

It's tough to stick with Florida, but I don't see enough of an obvious alternative to warrant deserting them. On the law of averages, you have to bet that Mike Lowell and Juan Pierre come back with good second halves, and if they keep A.J. Burnett and get Josh Beckett back soon, the rotation is as solid as there is in the NL. I have a feeling Washington is about to fall off the proverbial cliff, so the main charge to Florida should be Houston. They pulled it off last year, and if they find a first baseman at the deadline (Sean Casey? Aubrey Huff?) the 'Stros could pull it off once again.

National League Champion
Preseason Pick: Florida Marlins
Midseason Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

I have faith in Florida to win the Wild Card, but they aren't good enough to beat Atlanta or St. Louis in a head-to-head matchup. St. Louis is obviously the most complete team in the National League and they have the potential to walk over the field en route to another World Series Berth.

World Series Champion
Preseason Pick: Los Angeles Angels
Midseason Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

I have St. Louis beating Boston in a measure of revenge from last year. The pitching was a big problem in October 2004 for St. Louis, and now they have they squared away with getting Matt Morris and Chris Carpenter healthy and acquiring Mark Mulder. I can't see any reason not to go with the Cardinals to win it all.

****

My preseason picks can be viewed here.

Midseason Awards

2005-07-10T20:59:00.000-04:00

Last season, David Ortiz took home the ALCS MVP award, and he is Defeat the Empire's First Half AL MVP. Here are our Midseason Awards:

American League

MVP: David Ortiz, Boston. Ortiz has anchored the Boston lineup since opening day of 2005. Ortiz was the main power threat for the first two months of the year until Manny Ramirez began to heat up. 'Big Papi' lives for the big moment, and his .389 batting average with runners in scoring position and less than two outs sums up David's season.
Runner-up: Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles

Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Toronto. Despite taking the midseason Cy Young, Halladay has no shot to win it come November because of his recently broken leg that has him sidelined over a month. Nevertheless, his 12-4, 2.41 line is the most impressive in the AL considering he faces the hard-hitting Orioles, Yankees, and Red Sox on a regular basis.
Runner-up: Mark Buehrle, Chicago

Rookie of the Year: Chris Young, Texas. Young has quietly gone 8-5, 3.80 in a bandbox to end all bandboxes. Behind Kenney Rogers, he's been the Rangers' most consistent starter, and takes home the midseason AL Rookie of the Year.
Runner-up: Tadihito Iguchi, Chicago

Least Valuable Player: Jason Kendall, Oakland. Billy Beane brought Kendall in in a rare salary-adding move for the small-market A's. He's hitting .277, but he has no home runs and a meager .322 slugging percentage.
Runner-up: Jaret Wright, Yankees

Manager of the Year: Ozzie Guillen, Chicago. No contest here. While most had the White Sox in third or fourth place in the Central, Guillen's brash style has the Chisox a whopping 9 games above Minnesota in the AL Central.
Runner-up: Lee Mazzilli, Baltimore

National League

MVP: Andruw Jones, Atlanta. While the stat lines of Derrek Lee and Albert Pujols may be more impressive, nobody has been more valuable to their team than Jones. In a lineup minus Chipper Jones and surrounded by six rookies at time, Jones has finally realized his offensive potential in carrying the Braves offensively.
Runner-up: Derrek Lee, Chicago

Cy Young: Roger Clemens, Houston. Clemens has just seven wins due to extremely poor run support, but his 1.48 ERA is .91 better than his nearest competetor, Dontrelle Willis of Florida. And keep in mind, Clemens makes 60% of his starts in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, but Willis pitches in spacious Dolphins stadium. This would be the eighth Cy Young Award for Clemens, who sports an 0.20 ERA on the road in 2005.
Runner-up: Dontrelle Willis, Florida

Rookie of the Year: Willy Taveras, Houston. It would be impossible to replace what Carlos Beltran did for the Astros last October, but Taveras has done his part and then some, with a .293 batting average and 22 stolen bases. Keep in mind that Taveras had never played a game above AA before this year, so he could get even better in the second half.
Runner-up: Clint Barmes, Colorado

Least Valuable Player: Jim Thome, Philadephia. Thome has been hurt for nearly half the season, and when he's been on the field, hitting only .207. Thome looks washed up at age 34, which is bad news for the Phillies, who owe him another 43.5 million dollars after this year. Rookie Ryan Howard has hit .371/16/54 in AAA this year, so Thome's job may not be completely safe.
Runner-up: Mike Lowell, Florida

Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox, Atlanta. Everybody's picking Frank Robinson, who's no doubt done a great job with the Nats, but Atlanta's roster is even younger and more unproven than Washington's. Kyle Davies, Roman Colon, and Jorge Sosa have been mainstays in the Braves' rotation, and Atlanta remains 11 games over .500. Once John Thomson, Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson, and Chipper Jones get healthy, Atlanta will run away with the NL East yet again.
Runner-up: Frank Robinson, Washington.

Second Half Preview coming tomorrow or Tuesday.

Speedy Petey

2005-07-10T18:38:00.000-04:00

Pedro Fans Nine, Wins Tenth in Victory Over Pirates

The first half of this 2005 season has been mildly disappointing in Queens, but none of the blame can be assessed to Pedro Martinez. He dominated again today, going 7 innings in reaching double digits in wins for the twelth time in thirteen seasons dating back to 1993.

Pedro stands at 10-3, but it easily could be even better; the Mets bullpen has blown three wins for Martinez. He has gone seven innings or more in 14 of 18 starts, and has gone at least six in all appearances for the Mets.

Carlos Beltran has been a major disappointment in 80% of games, but when Pedro pitches, he's been stellar. He continued that trend today with his ninth home run in 18 Pedro starts.

So the Mets finish the first half at 44-44. They play like a .500 team, and right now, the record reflects that. Something tells me the record come October 3rd will be 81-81.

Yankees, Orioles Tighten AL East Race

Baltimore beat Boston today, 4-1, and the Yankees won for the seventh time in eight games by rolling over Cleveland, 9-4. The O's stand in second place and 2 games back, and the Yanks are 2.5 games behind Boston going into next week's series at Fenway.

In other words, the Empire is too close for comfort. If they take 3 of 4, they draw even with Boston in the loss column.

I'm sure Bill Mueller has something to say about that. He did last year in the midsummer series in Boston:

From July 24, 2004. I can't wait for Thursday.

The Globe: Schilling Makes Quick Work of Outing

That's good news. Some reports say he will return for the series against New York. Talk about Baptism by fire.

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First half MLB awards coming later today or tomorrow.

Flat as Yesterday's Soda Can

2005-07-09T21:29:00.000-04:00

That describes the Mets tonight. Which is predictable, after the debacle last night. I predicted a sweep in Pittsburgh after Lawton tied the game with the 'double' on Friday.

David Wright looks tired. He hasn't had a day off since May in Chicago. I'd send him home tonight and tell him to come prepared after the break. Four days off can't hurt the kid.

Cliff Floyd hit his 22nd homer in the sixth inning. Yet somehow, Jimmy Rollins (.269/7/23) is going to the All-Star Game and Cliff isn't. Cliff and Morgan Ensberg (.283/23/63) should throw a snubber party on Tuesday.

Atlanta is going to lose tonight, though. Still, we're not catching them in a million years. They're on their annual "let's win 50 of 65" streak at midsummer. It's only a matter of time before they catch Washington, probably as soon as mid-August.

Tom Seaver is saying now how the Mets made a mistake calling up Wright in July last year, because now he has no chance at winning the rookie of the year. Maybe Tom should realize baseball is a team game, and the when the Mets brought Wright up last year, he was the best player on the team from that day forward. Letting him smack the shit out of the ball at Norfolk would stunt Wright's development and hurt the Mets in the long run.

The New York Post says the Mets will consider bringing Al Leiter back next year as a commentator for the new television network. God, I hope so. Another guy I'd like to see in the booth as a color man next year is Mike Piazza, assuming he retires. Piazza has already help out John Miller and Joe Morgan on the Home Run Derby multiple times, and may again this year. Piazza/Leiter as color guys and your token Ted Robinson/Dave O'Brien multi-network hack as the play-by-play man, and you're building a solid booth. Certainly an improvment from Fran "hit Jose and get a teddy" Healy and Tom "crusty veteran" Seaver.

The Boston Red Sox lost this afternoon at Baltimore, 9-1. The game was within reach until John Halama and Scott Cassidy (who?) gave up 5 runs in 1.1 innings. Man, those poor bastards need some bullpen help. I already see Hideki Matsui smacking Alan Embree around Fenway next weekend. And Gary Sheffield teeing off on Scott Cassidy. Auto Eddie Guardado and Danys Baez could work wonders for Boston.

Speaking of the Yankees, they lost a nice ball game today to Cleveland. Darryl May (4.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 H) already has Yankee fans reminiscing about those long lost-days of Paul Quantrill. Bob Wickman made me sweat it out in the ninth, but he got A-Rod to ground out with the tying run on third to end the game.

Tommorrow's the last day of action before the Midsummer "Classic." Boston sends Wakey out there against Daniel Cabrera, the Mets deal Petey against Kip Wells, and the Empire has Randy Johnson.

For some reason some idiot is lighting fireworks right now outside. It sounds like WWIII.

Can't wait for Yankees-Sox at Fenway next week. Just can't wait. Last year, it produced this:

Can you wait? July 14-17. Don't miss it.

Allegheny Blues

2005-07-08T23:27:00.000-04:00

Bucs Rally for Four in Ninth, One in Tenth to Stun Mets

The picture tells the whole story. No words necessary.

Sox Fall In Rain to O's; Payton Dealt

2005-07-08T12:11:00.000-04:00

After a slew of roster moves, the Red Sox lost a 3-1, rain-shortened game to the second place Orioles last night in Baltimore. After six innings, umpires called for a rain delay as precipitation worsened. An hour later, with the rain unwavering, the game was called.

The Sox' only run came on a wild pitch by Orioles starter Daniel Cabrer a in the third inning. As the ball went to the backstop, Mark Bellhorn sprinted home from third base to give Boston a 1-0 lead.

David Wells soon coughed up the lead, however. Two solo home runs in the bottom of the third by Eli Marrero (who's hitting .185) and Melvin Mora put Baltimore ahead for good. Another run was added by the O's on Sammy Sosa's RBI single in the sixth, a run that proved unnecessary in what was a six-inning game.

The Orioles retained second place with the win, and now stand 3 games behind first-place Boston in the AL East. The Yankees defeated Cleveland, 7-2, in Yankee Stadium, and now move to 3 1/2 games behind the Sox.

Weather permitting, tonight's matchup pitts Bronson Arroyo (6-5, 4.15) against Sidney Ponson (7-6, 5.80) at 7:35.

Payton Heading to Oakland

Several Boston-area newspapers are confirming that disgrunted outfielder Jay Payton, who was designated for assignment before last night's game, will be traded to Oakland for reliever Chad Bradford when Bradford comes off of the disabled list, likely after the All-Star break.

Bradford has not pitched in 2005 due to back surgery. Last season, in what was his worst season since becoming a regular for Oakland out of the bullpen, he went 5-7 with a 4.42 ERA. His submarine-style delivery to tough for righthanded batter to pick up, and he held them to a .202 batting average in 2004.

Payton has begged the Boston front office for two months to move him to another city, and he finally has gotten his wish. The former Mets first-round pick out of Georgia Tech hit .263 with 5 homes runs in a reserve role this season. He could become Oakland's starting center fielder if Mark Kotsay is moved before the deadline.

When Payton was designated for assignment, outfielder Adam Stern was activated off of the sixty-day disabled list and made his first major league start last night. Lenny DiNardo was optioned back to Pawtucket. The Sox also made a trade, exchanging utility infielders with the Indians. The trade sent Ramon Vazquez to Cleveland for Alex Cora.

Schilling Stumbles in Pawtucket

Curt Schilling, in a rehab relief appearance for AAA Pawtucket, allowed two runs, one earned on two hits in a 7-3 loss to Ottawa. Schilling pitched the ninth inning, and the earned run raised his Pawtucket ERA to 7.41 on the season.

Despite the struggles, Schilling and the Pawtucket coaching staff seem to have few concerns. He seems to remain on schedule to return to Boston after the All-Star Break.

Capitol Gains, Part II

2005-07-07T17:05:00.000-04:00

Huge win for the Mets today, winning 3 of 4 in Washington to move to within 8 of the first-place Nats. There is still a long ways to go, but picking up two games in RFK is certainly a start, especially considering the Nats were 29-10 going into this series at home.

Jose Reyes got it started in the first with only his second walk to lead off a game this season. He then stole second, advance to third on a bunt, and scored on a Carlos Beltran RBI groundout. That kind of smallball, National League-style run is a fabric for success. If Reyes can simply get on base to lead off a game, with his speed, he'll score more often than not.

The only mistake Kris Benson made all day was to Jose Vidro, who doubled in two runs in the third. Other than that, Benson was stellar allowing just two runs and seven hits over seven innings. The Mets retaliated in the top of the fourth, as Mike Piazza doubled in Beltran to knot the game at two.

Roberto Hernandez and Heath Bell combined for three shutout innings to hold the score even until the Mets built a rally in the eleventh. Beltran got it started once again, doubling with one out off of Luis Ayala. After Cliff Floyd was intentionally walked, Piazza struck again, flaring a single into short right field to plate Beltran. The Mets instantaneously ran themselves out of the inning, as Piazza was tagged out trying to go to second base on the throw home from Jose Guillen, and then Floyd was tagged out going home on Brian Schnieder's throw back to second that nailed Piazza. Despite the two baserunning blunders, the Mets got the lead going into the bottom of the eleventh.

Braden Looper came on to pitch the eleventh, and quickly got two outs. Marlon Byrd extended the game with a walk, but Floyd made a running grab on Wil Cordero's flyout to end the game. Looper notched his third save of the series, and twentieth of the season.

The Mets face the lowly Pittsbugh Pirates in their last series before the All-Star break. The suddenly reliable Victor Zambrano (4-7, 3.80) faces Josh Fogg (4-4, 4.42) in tomorrow's 7:05 start.

The View From Boston

The Red Sox won last night over Texas, 7-4, behind Matt Clement. Clement went 8 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on nine hits while improving his record to 10-2. The talk out of Boston is that Clement could be in line for an All-Star spot if Kenny Rogers backs out of his.

Not all is good in beantown, however. Johnny Damon has said that many members of the clubhouse feel that Terry Francona is panicking by moving Curt Schilling into the closer's role due to the injury to Keith Foulke, and that he instead should go with Mike Timlin. (I tend to agree with Johnny on this point.) I also said that the Red Sox have been trying to move struggling first baseman Kevin Millar since the beginning of the season. John Olerud is getting more of the reps at first now, with Olerud hitting well over .300 since being activated by Boston. Also, Olerud is the superior defense player.

Tonight, the Sox head in to Baltimore. David Wells (6-4, 5.04) will square off with Daniel Cabrera (6-7, 5.07) as the Orioles try to stay afloat in the AL East. Boston leads second-place Baltimore by 4 games heading into tonight's action.

Capitol Gains; Mets beat Nats

2005-07-06T22:39:00.000-04:00

A shaky outing by Tom Glavine, strong relief by Aaron Heilman, and solid run production meant a win today for the Mets in RFK. Glavine gave up 9 hits in 5.2 innings, but that translated into just three runs for the Nationals. Heilman came in with the bases loaded in the sixth, and promptly got Jose Guillen to ground out to second base. Heilman carried the game through the seventh and eighth innings as well, and didn't allow a hit in his 2.1 innings of relief. Braden Looper shut the door, pitching a 1-2-3 ninth inning to earn his 19th save in 22 chances.

Mike Cameron got the Mets offense going in the first inning, clubbing his eighth home run of 2005 to left field to put the Mets ahead 1-0. The Nats retaliated in the fourth, however, as singles by Jamey Carroll and Brad Wilkerson plated three runs. Carlos Beltran's leadoff double, his twentieth two-bagger of the season, in the sixth inning got the Mets rally started off of Livan Hernandez, and the Mets knocked in three runs to go ahead for good on Marlon Anderson and Ramon Castro singles. A sacrifice fly by Anderson in the eighth made the score 5-3, adding insurance to the benefit of the sometimes shaky Looper.

Glavine got the win to improve to 6-7. Hernandez took the loss to fall to 12-3, earning his first loss since April 19th. Kris Benson (6-3, 3.75) will face Tony Armas, Jr. (4-4, 5.27) in the series finale as the Amazins try to take three of four from the first-place Nats.

Schilling to the pen?

2005-07-06T16:51:00.000-04:00

Schilling to work out of bullpen for more rehab

This is one of the dumbest moves I've ever seen in baseball. Curt Schilling in the bullpen? He hasn't come out of the bullpen regularly in 13 years, and has been one of the most dominating righthanded starters in the majors over the past decade.

Curt isn't the answer to Boston's bullpen problems. The guy who might be, though, is Bronson Arroyo. Why? He's help right-handed hitters to a .188 average this year. He could be the righthanded half of a middle relief tandem, setting up closer Mike Timlin (or Keith Foulke.) Then all you have to acquire at the deadline is an Eddie Guardado or a Brian Fuentes.

If Schill isn't ready, give him a few more starts at Pawtucket. But don't put him in a tie game in the eighth in Fenway.

London Jubliation

2005-07-06T11:51:00.000-04:00

London got the 2012 games. I thought only Paris had a shot. Tony looks happy anyway.

Not a particularly good day for baseball on 7/5. The Yanks beat the Orioles, and the Mets lost to f*cking Esteban Loaiza with Pedro on the mound. But, the Sox did pull one out in Arlington. Keith Foulke officially blows, so he decided to get MRI's on both knees. Supposedly he's had a bad leg for years. Time to get Brad Lidge to Boston. That's not going to happen though, he's not on the market.

More realistic targets are Seattle's Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Eddie Guardado, and also Milwaukee's Ricky Bottalico.

Today's schedule:

Mets @ Washington Nationals, 7:05
Glavine (5-7, 4.95) @ Livan Hernandez (12-2, 3.32)

Red Sox @ Texas Rangers, 8:05
Clement (9-2, 3.82) @ Chan Ho Park (8-2, 5.50)