Defeat the Empire

If you're a baseball fan, you have to be interest in the upcoming series between the White Sox and the Indians.

Cleveland can't be much hotter than they are right now. After starting slowly, they are an amazing 38-15 since July 23rd. They are comprised of a bunch of kids who are afraid of nothing, a manager who's yet to turn 40, and a pitching staff that compares with the best in the American League.

On the other hand, the White Sox have to be doubting themselves. Everyone expected a cool-down from their scorching start to the season, but they've played sub-.500 ball since mid-July. If they want to avoid one of the most momumental collapses in Chicago history, stepping up this week against upstart Cleveland is a necessity.

Monday, 8:05 ET: Millwood (8-11, 3.02) @ Garcia (12-8, 3.96)

Nobody's had tougher luck than Kevin Millwood in 2005. His ERA suggests that he should be approaching the high teens in wins by now, but poor run support and blown wins by the bullpen have given him a pedestrian 8-11 record. Freddy Garcia has been solid all year, but his 1-4 record since the trade dealine is troubling.

Analysis: Due to Millwood's bad luck, I give a slight edge to the White Sox in game one. Expect a low-scoring affair.

Tuesday, 8:05 ET: Westbrook (15-14, 4.56) @ Buehrle (15-7, 3.21)

This is a case of two starters heading in opposite directions. Westbrook started off 6-12, only to go 9-2 since. And Buehrle, once the Cy Young favorite, is 5-6 since winning 10 of his first 11 decisions. Still, Westbrook is 0-3 against Chicago this season and Buehrle 2-0 against Cleveland.

Analysis: Despite the discrepancies in the numbers of the two pitchers, I think Westbrook has become a microcasm of the Indians team: a no-name who started off cold and now is afraid of nobody. I'll take Cleveland in game two.

Wednesday, 8:05 ET: Elarton (10-7, 4.57) @ Garland (17-9, 3.41)

The final of this series looks like a mismatch. Elarton has been a decent no. 4 type starter who gives you some innings and a chance to win; Garland has been an ace despite cooling down lately. Also, Elarton has really struggled against the Sox this year in two starts, and Garland has dominated the Indians to the tune of a 2-0, 2.84 mark in two starts.

Analysis: I wouldn't be surprise if Cleveland can pull it off, but game 3 favors the ChiSox by a good amount on paper. Chicago wins game 3, and takes 2 of 3 in the series.

Just letting everyone know that I'm still here. I'll try to be more active over the next few weeks/months, but I've been busy since the calendar hit September.

The AL East is going to be a dogfight, much closer than I expected or my formula predicted. The Red Sox are holding on to a 1 game lead in the loss column, matching the Yankees win-for-win (and loss-for-loss) for the most part. The last series of the year, in Fenway Park, looks to be the deciding factor in who wins the crown.

The Indians are on fire, and they might even catch the White Sox. They play Chicago seven more times, which is enough to mount a final charge. If the ChiSox squander this once-insurmountable lead, it will go down with the biggest collapses in Chicago sports history.

It's going to be a fun month, in the AL, at least. Go Sox.

He's baaaaaaaaaaack! (Or so we can hope.)

The vintage Schilling showed up at the stadium today and pumped in 8 strong innings in his first victory since being reinstalled in Boston's rotation in late August. His fastball was located well, his splitter was moving, his cutter was effective...he was vintage Schilling.

What this tells me is, that even though Curt isn't going to be dominant day-in, day-out starter he has been in the past, he will show up for the big games. Nobody pitches better in the spotlight than Curt Schilling, and if that last series at Fenway against the Empire means something--watch out, Yanks.

I've said for a while now, these Red Sox don't need Schilling to be an ace, they just need him to be a consistent starter. Boston scores enough runs to make guys like Tim Wakefield and Matt Clement 15-game winners. But if Schilling can pitch the way he did yesterday in the postseason, and be that stopper, the chances of the Sox repeating increase dramatically.

Tomorrow's an interesting matchup: Tim Wakefield against Randy Johnson. Which Randy shows up? Nobody knows, and that's the key to the outcome. A Boston victory in the Sunday matinee goes a long way towards ending the AL East race.

In the first game, I lost against the spread and won straight-up. Here are the rest of week one's picks.

Straight-Up

Broncos
Bengals
Bills
Steelers
Redskins
Panthers
Vikings
Jaguars
Jets
Cardinals
Rams
Packers
Cowboys
Ravens
Eagles

Against the Spread

Dolphins
Bengals
Texans
Steelers
Redskins
Panthers
Vikings
Jaguars
Jets
Cardinals
Rams
Packers
Cowboys
Ravens
Eagles

It's true. It is.

I realize last night's game meant nothing in all likelyhood--the Mets are done. The debacle in Cobb County was just a demoralizing final nail in the coffin--a move the Mets have perfected over the last few years.

I've been Braden Looper's biggest defender, but he has to go. The Mets need to find somebody who can strike people out and who can get lefties out. Looper isn't the guy. Hell, I'd give it to Aaron Heilman next year and see if he can do the job. (And by the way, it should have been Heilman, and not Looper, pitching the tenth. Bonehead Willie returns).

The Mets finish the year 1-8 at Turner Field. Unless that number improves, they won't win anything in 2006. You can't have a stop where you play 9 or 10 games and simply can't win.

Also, the f*cking fans in Atlanta are so bad, they don't deserve that team. Last night, they drew all of 25,000 people. It's really a shame. If the Mets had 13 consecutive division titles under their belt, 50,000 would be a norm at Shea for a week night.

Rant is over. I just hate the Braves.

NFL Season Opens

The NFL season begins tonight in Foxboro, where the Raiders visit the Patriots. I'll be picking games ATS all year...now, for the opening pick:

Raiders (+7.5) over Patriots

I'll take the points.

This is a huge week coming up, for many reasons.

-The Yankees play the Devil Rays, who have been their albatross in 2005. The Yanks are 4-9 against the Rays. Then, it's a huge 3-game series against Boston, which will go a long way towards deciding which team wins the AL East.

-The Mets fight for their playoff lives, if they still exist. The Braves beat them yesterday, and two more at Turner followed by four at St. Louis is a stretch that can render a team done. The Mets have to go 3-3 in these last six to have a shot.

-Boston is finally to get tested. They've had a dream homestand thus far, and have 3 more against the Angels in Fenway before heading to Yankee Stadium. It's a near certainty that Boston makes the playoffs in my mind, but a poor stretch here against teams that are fighting for playoff spots could place Boston squarely in the middle of a dog-fight to get to the postseason.

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I'm going to be more busy now, but I'll try to post daily. The posts may not be as long and substantive as they were until we hit October, but I'll do what I can.

When Matt Clement pitches, the Red Sox score alot of runs. It's that simple.

Baseball prospectus did a study on the "luckiest" pitches in baseball this year. Cliff Lee of Cleveland, who is 14-4 with a 3.90 ERA, was first. Clement was second.

Clement did pitch very well yesterday, however, going eight innings and giving up just four runs in winning his thirteenth game. But, it should be noted that Clement was actually a better pitcher last year with Chicago, when he only went 9-13.

Clement probably is the Red Sox ace at this point, considering that they always win with him on the mound. My postseason rotation would be Clement, David Wells, Tim Wakefield, and Bronson Arroyo. (Sorry, Curt, but you suck.) Schilling and Papelbon can contribute in the bullpen come the postseason.

Clement needs one more win to match a career-high 14, which he posted in 2003 with Chicago. Clement also won 13 games with San Diego in 2000, but also lost 17 games that year.

Today's Schedule

Mets (Seo, 6-1, 1.86) @ Marlins (Burnett, 12-8, 3.07)

Willie Randolph brought in Shingo friggin' Takatsu with the bases loaded against Miguel Cabrera, and Takatsu gave up a 3-run double. Big surprise, huh? Same old Mets.

Orioles (Lopez, 13-8, 4.85) @ Red Sox (Wells, 11-6, 4.44)

David Wells returns from his 6-game suspension against Baltimore. Hell, he's been the Red Sox best pitcher since mid-May or so, and goes for win No. 12 today.

Yankees (Chacon, 4-9, 3.72) @ Athletics (Zito, 12-10, 3.37)

Remember when the Yankees started 11-19? Well, the 19th loss of that stretch came against Oakland in extra innings, a game which Barry Zito started. Zito goes again for the A's, as they try to revenge the Yanks for Aaron Small's shutout yesterday. Shawn Chacon, who was shelled at Seattle in his last start, goes for the Yanks.

0.2 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 6 R, 1 BB, 1 HR.

Hah.

We shouldn't make fun of Al; after all, the Mets don't make the playoffs in 1999 and 2000 without him. But it hurts me to see one of my favorite Mets with the Yankees, and now that he's there, I've got no choice but to root against him.

Al's been decent enough as a Yankee though, I will say that. Even with last night's debacle, he's at 4-4, 5.33 with the Yankees, with the ERA more than a run better than it was in Florida.

Al, I love you as a Met. We went through Game 6 in 1999 and Game 5 in 2000 together. But I hope you crash and burn down the stretch with the rest of the Yankees.

See you in a broadcast booth in 2006, Al!

Mussina Out Indefinitely With Tendinitis

Just when the Yankees think they have their rotation all figured out, Jaret Wright gets hit with a line drive and Mike Mussina gets told by a doctor he might be done for the season.

More and more, it's looking like this just ain't the Yankees year.

An MRI performed by Los Angeles doctor Lewis Yocum revealed tendinitis in Mike Mussina's right elbow, an injury that just might mean he's done for 2005. Mussina was told by Yocum to "rest until it doesn't hurt" (that's one hell of a doctor) and Mussina says he'll obey the doctor's orders.

The MSNBC article on this subject can be found here.

Today's Schedule

Yankees (Small, 5-0, 3.03) @ Athletics (Saarloos, 9-6, 3.98), 4:05 pm

The Yanks look for revenge from last night's 12-0 loss. Aaron Small looks to continue his dream season, and he's opposed by Kirk Saarloos. The way things are shaping up, Small could be the Yanks best starter down the stretch.

Mets (Benson, 9-6, 3.91) @ Marlins (Beckett, 12-8, 3.62), 6:05 pm

The Mets are going through the obligatory losing-streak-after-winning-streak period, dropping 5 of their last 6. Josh Beckett doesn't look to be any easier than Dontrelle Willis was last night, either.

Orioles (Bedard, 6-5, 3.42) @ Red Sox (Clement, 12-3, 4.27), 7:05 pm

Lenny DiNardo did his job last night, going 6 innings with just one earned run, but an error and uncharacteristically quiet Red Sox bats did him in. Matt Clement is no stranger to run support, and Erik Bedard has been struggling lately, so I think the Sox will rebound and post some runs on the board tonight as Clement goes for this 13th win.

When John Olerud was a Met, I loved him.

When John Olerud left the Mets to sign with Seattle...I still liked him.

When John Olerud signed with the Yankees after being cut by Seattle...I still couldn't dislike him.

And now, I feel comfortable loving the guy again.

On a night when Manny Ramirez was out of the Red Sox lineup, and David Ortiz went 0-for-4, the Sox needed firepower somehow. They got it from an unlikely source.

Olerud's 2 HR's and 6 RBI made him the toast of Beantown. And, it also makes Omar Minaya look like a fool for going with Doug Mientkiewicz over Olerud, who unlike Dougie, can actually hit.

The long-struggling Bronson Arroyo got back on track tonight, too. He allowed just 4 runs over 7 innings to win his 11th game. With the way Boston throws up runs, if you can get it to the 8th inning without imploding, that's usually good enough.

Jonathan Papelbon pitched the 8th inning and allowed two hits, but struck out the side before allowing a run. Mike Timlin notched his 5th save with a 1-2-3 ninth inning.

Before the game, the Red Sox activated four players, including Keith Foulke. The others were IF Alejando Machado, former Marlins LHP Matt Perisho, and RHP Chad Harville. Harville was claimed off waivers from the Astros earlier in the week.

.139/.258/.200
Those above numbers were the hitting percentages of Mariners' catcher Miguel Ojeda heading into today's afternoon game against the Yankees. Shitty, huh? Well, that means nothing to Tanyon Sturtze.

Sturtze allowed a seventh-inning, solo home run to Ojeda in the seventh inning that broke a 1-1 tie and gave the Mariners the lead for good. The M's were trailing for most of the first six innings until Jaret Wright was knocked out of the game after taking a ball to the collarbone off the bat of Raul Ibanez.

After that, two members of the 2004 Red Sox proceeded to give up earned runs, namely, Alan Embree and Ramiro Mendoza. With those two and strikeout king Mark Bellhorn, it looks like the Yankees M.O. for 2005 and on is to pick out of Boston's trash bin.

Here's a nice shot of Bellhorn in his Yankee attire:


Thanks for Game 6, Mark. But, you suck.

Today's Schedule

Orioles (Maine, 1-1, 2.70) @ Red Sox (DiNardo, 0-0, 10.80)

Lenny DiNardo makes a spot start for Boston, leaving us wondering, isn't there a better option? 5-6 IP, 5-6 ER should be the goal for DiNardo, and let the offense do the rest.

Mets (Zambrano, 7-10, 4.07) @ Marlins (Willis, 18-8, 2.61)

Can you blame me for not wanting to write about another depressing Mets loss? Talking about Johnny O and Miguel Ojeda just was a more entertaining endeavor. Zamby pitches for his life once more as the Mets take on Cy Young hopeful Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins.

Yankees (Leiter, 7-10, 5.75) @ Athletics (Haren, 11-10, 3.99)

The Yanks make their second trip to Almaeda County, but this time, the A's are good. Met folk hero Al Leiter, who's pitched decently as a Yankee, takes on former Cardinal Danny Haren. Haren was aquired in the Mark Mulder deal by the A's, and looks to be a fine young pitcher with a great future ahead of him.

Other Notes

-The Jets completed their preseason with a 37-14 win over the Eagles. The defense was very impressive, led by safeties Kerry Rhodes and Rashad Washington, who each had an interception. Chad Pennington rebounded from his poor performance against the Giants by leading a touchdown drive in his only action of the game.