Defeat the Empire

The best wins are when you fall behind early, chip away, get key outs, and an unlikely hero comes though. Right?

Well that happened last night at Shea. Jae Seo didn't have it, as he allowed 2 homers in the first, one of which to some new guy named Burrell. But the Kid from Kwangju battled with what he had, and got through five innings while keeping the Mets in the game.

Carlos Beltran also had one of his few good days as a Met. He hit a solo shot in the first, a single in the third, an RBI single in the fifth, and a key walk in the eighth. Beltran also had an impressive toss to the plate that nailed Kenny Lofton, and quite possibly turned the momentum around in the ballgame.

The real story isn't Beltran. It's Ramon Castro. A retread before the season started, Castro has proven now to have a knack for the clutch. Every hit he gets is a big one. Yesterday was no different, as his three-run bomb to left field in the eighth gave the Mets the lead for good, and was the Mets biggest hit since Mike Piazza went deep off of Steve Karsay against the Braves on September 21, 2001.

Castro's season numbers are somewhat misleading. He has modest, yet solid, percentages of .257/.333/.466 on the year, but his numbers in the second half and with runners in scoring position are incredible. With runners in scoring position, Castro is hitting .367; with runners in scoring position and two outs, he's hitting .286.

I hope Mike Piazza can come back this year, just because he's Mike Piazza. If the Mets are going win this thing, it doesn't seem right it would be without Mike. But as far as I'm concerned, Piazza's days as an everyday player with the Mets are gone.

Still feel free to wear the Mets cap into Cooperstown, Mike. We love you. But you've been surpassed by King Castro.

Today's Schedule

Devil Rays (Fossum, 8-10, 4.76) @ Red Sox (Wakefield, 13-10, 4.35)

Hell, Tim Wakefield leads the Red Sox in wins? That doesn't seem right. But it's the truth, and Wakey goes for his 14th tonight against Casey Fossum. Fossum actually was one of the players sent to Arizona to get Curt Schilling to Boston. Go figure; less than two years later, he's better than Schilling.

Phillies (Myers, 11-6, 3.55) @ Mets (Martinez, 13-5, 2.77)

Brett Myers has had the breakout season scouts have long predicted for him. Pedro Martinez has avoided the disasterous season the know-it-alls were predicting for him. It looks like a nice pitching matchup, so come out to Shea, will you? Lets break 45,000 for tonight's game.

Yankees (Johnson, 12-8, 4.20) @ Mariners (Hernandez, 2-1, 1.75)

An ex-Mariner ace matches up against the future Mariner ace, as Randy Johnson duels Felix Hernandez. Hernandez has been compared by the scouts to Pedro Martinez. Well, that's a little steep, but he's already outpitching another Hall-of-Famer in Johnson. Consider this: Felix doesn't turn 20 until April 8th of next year; Johnson hits 42 in 10 days.

Since it's no fun to write about the Mets losing, I decided I'd instead analyze the NL and AL Wild Card races using my "Hanoverian Theorem".

I made a post, entitled "AL East Analysis" (which can be found here), using this theorem. The theorem involves separating the home and road records of each team, and predicting a team's final Won-Lost record by multiplying each team's home and road winning percentages by it's amount of home and road games left, respecively. Got all that?

NL Wild Card Final Predicted Records-Hanoverian Theorem

1. Philadelphia...86-76
2. Florida...86-76
3. Mets...85-77
4. Houston...85-77

I left out Washington because I think they're done, and because of their second half dropoff, I feel the theorem wouldn't produce accurate results. Oh, and by the way...if four teams are separated by 1 game at the end, that would mean it's gonna be a fun September.

AL Wild Card Final Predicted Records-Hanoverian Theorem

1. Oakland...92-70
2. LA Angels...92-70
3. Yankees...91-71
4. Cleveland...90-72

The theorem predicts that Oakland/LA will tie for the AL West crown, with the loser of the tiebreaker taking the Wild Card. Again, with 4 teams projected only 2 games apart, we're in for one hell of a September.

Today's Schedule

Tampa Bay (McClung, 5-7, 6.40) @ Boston (Clement, 11-3, 4.35)

Matt Clement's best friend this year has been run support, and he started out with 10 wins by July 6th, but has won just once since then. McClung is another Tampa Bay retread, but Tampa has done extremely well in the second half, going 26-15.

Yankees (Mussina, 12-8, 4.21) @ Seattle (Franklin, 6-14, 5.29)

The Yankees make their second trip to Safeco this year, after taking 2 of 3 in Seattle back in May. Mike Mussina tries to rebound after his terrible start against Toronto last Wednesday, when he gave up 9 runs in the 5th inning.

Everything the Mets did in yesterday's loss to San Francisco just came up a tad short.

Tom Glavine missed vesting his 2006 option by .1 inning.

The Mets left the tying run in scoring position in both the 7th and 9th innings.

And so on. I know we can't win 'em all, but it seems like we have to in order to prevail in the Wild Card chase. The good news is, every team we're chasing lost yesterday, except for Florida. Even Houston and Roy Oswalt were blown out by the Dodgers.

Today's game is huge. A win today virtually insures that abotu 150,000 people show up to Shea for the upcoming 3-game series against Philadelphia (and I might be one of them). A loss puts a damper on an otherwise brilliant road trip.

Kris Benson, battling shoulder soreness, goes for the Mets. The Mets are 14-7 in Benson's starts so far this year. Opposing him is the young and promising Noah Lowry, who the Mets beat at Shea Stadium earlier this year, but he has since come on strong and been the Giants no. 2 starter.

Today's Schedule

Royals (Grienke, 3-15, 6.04) @ Yankees (Leiter, 6-10, 5.96)

How the hell did the Yankees lose last night's game? That was truly depressing. A loss doesn't seem very likely for the Empire today, either, as Zach Grienke opposes them on his quest to lose 20 games.

Detroit (Robertson, 6-10, 3.85) @ Red Sox (Wells, 10-6, 4.53)

David Wells may be the ace of the Red Sox staff down the stretch. That is a scary thought, but it's probably true. Bronson Arroyo was the last Sox pitcher to get bombed, allowing 7 runs in a loss last night.

Mets (Benson, 9-5, 3.89) @ Giants (Lowry, 10-11, 3.81)

Already been discussed. LGM!

I'll tell you from experience: having too many starting pitchers is more fun that having too few.

For a good amount of time last year, the Mets only had 3 solid starters: Al Leiter, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel. Retreads such as James Baldwin, Scott Erickson, Matt Ginter, Tyler Yates, the 2004 version of Jae Seo, and others passed through the rotation, losing far more often than they won. Here in 2005, we have a surplus of starting pitching.

Steve Trachsel made his case last night for being a stronghold in this rotation. Before the game last night, I was expecting about 6 innings, 3 runs, and 80 pitches from Trachsel in his first game back. But Steve beat all possible expectations, going 8 shutout innings in a 1-0 Mets win over San Francisco. Trax was the old reliable he's been for the past 4 seasons, only better. He spotted hit high-80s fastball perfectly, the hook was dropping out of the sky, and he employed a two-seamer also as an effective third pitch.

The lone jam Trachsel was in came in the eighth inning, after an infield single to ex-Met Edgardo Alfonzo. After J.T. Snow sacrificed to first, and Mike Matheny ground out to shortstop, the tying run stood on third base with two outs.

A long battle with Michael Tucker was unsuccessful, as Trax left a curveball up high for ball four. Most managers would have likely gone to the bullpen here, but kudos to Willie for leaving Trax in to pitch out of a jam. After falling behind Randy Winn 3-1, Trax induced a pop-up to shallow center field to retain the lead.

Braden Looper came on for the ninth, and made us sweat a little, allowing a leadoff double to Omar Vizquel. But Loop shut the door thereafter, with three groundouts that ended up stranding the tying run on third base. Looper now has 27 saves in 32 oppurtunities, good for a very respectable save percentage of 84.375%.

The lone source of offense for the Mets came from David Wright, once again. Wright clubbed a long solo homer in the second inning that proved to be the game winner. Wright also added a single in his next at-bat, and his hitting percentages now sit at an amazing .316/.396/.538. And remember, he's 22 years old.

Today's Schedule

Royals (Howell, 1-4, 7.68) @ Yankees (Wright, 4-2, 6.00)

A-Rod and Bernie put a beatdown on Kansas City last night, combining for three home runs. The bad news is, the Yanks are on a roll; the good news is, 24 of Boston's 36 remaining games are at home. The Yankees are now 2.5 behind the Red Sox and remain in a three-way, wild-card tie.

Mets (Glavine, 10-10, 4.10) @ Giants (Schmidt, 10-6, 4.41)

The Mets go for their sixth straight and eighth win in nine games, but now go up against the Giants ace. The Mets tatooed Schmidt earlier in the year, scoring 6 runs over four innings. Schmidt has rebounded since then, and he'll face off against the red hot Tom Glavine, who vests his 2006 option with 6.1 innings in today's game.

Tigers (Douglass, 5-2, 4.76) @ Red Sox (Arroyo, 10-9, 4.19)

Boston has now won a staggering 14 consecutive games at Fenway, and look to continue that against journeyman Sean Douglass, who has pitched well this season. Bronson Arroyo makes his return to the rotation after a short stint in the bullpen.

They say the greatest athletes persevere on nights when they just don't have it. Pedro proved that last night.

In the first inning, Pedro allowed 3 walks and a hit batsmen, yet got through the inning. In fact, he walked the leadoff man each time in the first 3 innings, yet carried a no-hitter into the sixth. Pedro's changeup wasn't there, and his control eluded him, but he used an excellent curveball and dialed his heater up to the low-90s in order to shut out the D-Backs through six innings. Pedro hit 100 pitches as he retired Shawn Green on a groundout, his last batter of the game.

Victor Diaz provided a great deal of the offense for the Mets on a night when their bats were silenced by ex-Yankee Javier Vazquez. Diaz, embroiled in a mini-controversy involving his tagging up from second base late in Wednesday's 18-4 blowout, responded with a solo home run in the second inning, Victor's ninth, to put the Mets up 2-0. Diaz added an RBI on a ninth-inning sacrifice fly that gave the Mets an insurance run. Cliff Floyd had two hits, and David Wright extended his games-on-base streak to 14 with a walk and a single.

Not counted on the previous two nights, the bullpen stepped up. After a tired Aaron Heilman inexplicably was summoned by manager Willie Randolph, Robbie Hernandez got out of a seventh inning jam and stayed on to pitch the eighth. He gave up a solo home run to Chad Tracy, but was able to hold the lead. A 1-2-3 ninth inning by Braden Looper earned the Mets the win, and Looper his 26th save in 31 chances.

With the win, the Mets pulled to just 1.5 games back of the idle Phillies in the NL Wild Card. They also took a one-game lead on Washington, which is stunning considering the Nats were 10 games ahead of the Mets in the standings as late as July 5th.

Today's Schedule

Royals (Wood, 4-4, 4.09) @ Yankees (Johnson, 11-8, 4.34)

The Yanks look to stay hot after taking 3 of 4 from the Blue Jays, and look to get revenge on the Royals, who swept them in Kansas City May 31-June 2. The Royals just took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox.

Red Sox (Wakefield, 12-10, 4.29) @ Tigers (Johnson, 7-9, 4.09)

Predictably, Curt Schilling got bombed last night in KC. The sad reality may be that Jonathan Papelbon can better help the Red Sox in that rotation than can Schilling. Tim Wakefield looks to right the ship tonight.

Mets (Trachsel, 0-0, NR) @ Giants (Correia, 2-4, 4.86)

Steve Trachsel makes his first start for the Mets since September 28, 2004. He is opposed by the weak-hitting Giants and rookie Kevin Correia. The stage is set, hopefully, for another convincing Mets victory, prodived Trax can get back on track in a hurry.

If you told me at the start of the year the Mets were going through a youth movement on April 1st, I'd probably have snarled and said something along the lines of "Hey, if they suck, the might as well play the kids and not Gerald Williams." Heh.

Not only are the Mets playing the kids, they've reached their high water mark of the year, and are right in the thick of the NL Wild Card race. Three of the kids- Jose Reyes, age 22; David Wright, age 22; and Mike Jacobs, age 24, combined for 5 home runs and 10 RBI in an 18-4 win over Arizona.

Even though the Mets are squarely in contention for the first time this late in the year since 2001,
I'm finding myself more excited about the future than I am about now. If Reyes and Wright are this good at 22, and we'll get into just how good they actually are, how great will they be two years from now? The same goes for Mike Jacobs and Victor Diaz at age 24.

David Wright now, after a solid first half that saw him hit .281/.369/.470, has absolutely been lit on fire since the break. He's hitting .383/.448/.667 since the All-Star game, with 9 HR and 38 RBI. Wright is approaching top-fifteen in OBP, top-ten in SLG, and top-five in his first full MLB season. And he's getting better.

Jose Reyes is another kid who's made a big improvement since the break. After hitting .261/.384/.367 with 24 steals in the 1st half, Jose has exploded since, going at a .321/.355/457 clip, along with 19 stolen bases. Because of his speed, if Reyes can keep his OBP at .350 or so over the long haul, he'll be an absolute monster over the long haul.

Reyes and Wright certainly are the most prominent kids who are contributing, but there are a bunch on this roster. Look:

-Mike Jacobs, 24: Tore up AA, now 7-for-13 with 4 HR and 9 RBI in the bigs
-Victor Diaz, 24: The butcher in the field, but the kid can hit. .333/.326/.689 since his recall from Norfolk
-Aaron Heilman, 26: 3.80 ERA overall, 85/24 K/BB ratio, 0.92 second half ERA
-Heath Bell, 27: 4.24 ERA, 38/11 K/BB ratio, plus his new and devastating splitter
-Juan Padilla, 28: Former Yankee and Red, professional retread resume, yet extremely effective in 2005 in Norfolk and New York. Lefties hitting just .172 in his short New York stint
-Jae Seo, 28: Beena round the block, but stilly oung enough to grow into a middle-of-the-rotation role. He's been like Roger Clemens in the bigs, however, going 6-1, 1.30

Can't forget the kids in the minors either:

-Anderson Hernandez, 22: Advanced past AA in 3 months; .327/.384/.423 with 24 steals in AAA
-Brian Bannister, 24: Eastern League's best pitcher has graduated to Norfolk, and is an impressive 4-1, 2.97 in 7 AAA starts.
-Yusmeiro Petit, 20: After being promoted from AA and haveing a sub-3 ERA in Binghamton, Petit went 6 solid innings in his AAA debut
-Lastings Milledge, 20: .341/.395/.503 at Binghamton. Could fill the second slot in the lineup as soon as mid-2006

As for now, we're only one back of Philadelphia in the loss column. Keep fightin', kids.

In all honesty, Tom Glavine hasn't lived up to the contract he signed in December 2002 in his tenure with the Mets. Even with last night's win, his thirtieth as a Met, he's just 30-38 since 2003.

There have been two stretches where Glavine's been worth his contract; the first three months of 2004, where at one point he was 7-3 with a 2.03 ERA, and over his last two months here in 2005. Since dropping to 4-7, 5.06 with a loss at Seattle on June 19th, Glavine has gone 6-3 and seen his ERA fall .96 to 4.10.

Glavine vesting his 2006 option isn't the nightmare it was just a few months ago. The sum would be large, in the vacinity of $9 million, but Glavine has found the fountain of youth and I don't think he's turning back. Tom may not be a Met at heart, and I question how much he has invested in the team's success, but there's another factor that keeps him motivated: his chase for 300 wins. Glavine now sits at 272, 28 short of the mark. With a strong finish this year and a decent year next year, Glavine can get within ten of the mark by the end of 2006 and conceiveably then return to Atlanta for 2007 as a 41-year-old to provide veteran guidance and win his 300th at midseason.

Suddenly...He's All Wright
Not unlike Tom Glavine, Jaret Wright was written off for dead earlier in the season. After starting four games, he went on the DL with torn scar tissue while sporting a 9.15 ERA, and was presumed lost for the year. But after months of rehabilitation, Wright is back and better than ever.

Wright went 7 strong innings last night against Toronto, and won his fourth game of the season. Allowing just 4 hits and striking out 5, the Yankee 7-0 victory placed them in a three-way tie for the AL Wild-Card lead.

The Yankees got more good news from the pitching front when Chien-Ming Wang threw in the bullpen successfully without pain before the game against Toronto. Wang threw all his pitches and impressed Joe Torre, who is subscribing to the thinking that Wang can return in September for the stretch run. Wang is 6-3 with a 3.89 in 2005.

Today's Schedule

Blue Jays (Towers, 10-9, 4.12) @ Yankees (Leiter, 6-10, 6.09), 7:05 PM

Red Sox (Wells, 9-6, 4.70) @ Royals (Grienke, 3-14, 6.02), 8:10 PM

Mets (Zambrano, 6-10, 4.24) @ Diamondbacks (Vargas, 7-6, 4.47), 9:40 PM

Other Notes

-The Yankees climbed to third in Sportsline's MLB Power Rankings, their highest since April. Boston remains in first place, and the Mets ascended one slot to no. 15. The rankings can be found here.

-Steve Trachsel was activated today and is headed to the bullpen, at least for a short period of time. The Mets brass is probably hoping Jae Seo fails soon so he can be placed in the pen and Trachsel can be inserted into the final spot in the rotation.

We all know moving from the NL to the AL is challenging. But in Randy Johnson's case, it's changed him from a dominating, top-5 caliber pitcher to a middle-of-the-road starter in just a matter of months. Never were Johnson's struggles more apparent than in today's fourth inning in Chicago.

After Johnson cruised through the first three frames, he was burned for 4 dingers in the 4th, including back-to-back-to-back shots by Tadahito Iguchi, Aaron Rowand, and Paul Konerko. For good measure, former Yankee and retread backup catcher Chris Widger added a 3-run shot that sailed over the left field wall.

So, what's wrong with Randy? The three factors most likely are the switch in leagues, his nagging groin and back injuries, and age. This is not good news for the Yankees, who made a $57 million financial commitment to Johnson when they acquired him from Arizona in January. He's still under contract for 2 more seasons, at $16 million per year, and all indications are that the guy who was supposed to be the Yankees' ace in now just a hall-of-famer in decline.

AL Roundup

The Yanks lost ground on Boston with the loss today, as Boston scored five in the eighth to beat the Angels 5-1. Manny Ramirez and Edgar Renteria each had home runs. With the win, Boston moves to 4 games up on the Yankees in the AL East.

Oakland, the primary team the Yanks are chasing in the wild-card race, lost a second straight game to Kansas City. The losses by both teams keep a 1/2 game of separation between the two teams, while they are even in the loss column. Cleveland is also 1/2 games back, but trails by one game in the loss column.

I've been away on vacation since August 13th. Now I'm back, and it's time for a bullet style roundup.

-I've been able to follow the Mets results nightly through WNBC newscasts. Len Berman has kept me updated on the results, and I can't say I'm overly disappointed or elated. Losing on the road and winning at home has been a constant tag line for the 2005 Mets. Still, being in the hunt in late August is wonderful, considering where the Mets have been the last five August 21st's.

-I pulled in the Jets' preseason game vs. Minnesota on some CBS affiliate out of Erie, Pennsylvania. Chad Pennington looked good enough for me not to be too worried about his health for the opener at Kansas City. He was nothing special the first two drives, but on the last series he played that led to a TD, Penny and Coles partied like it's 2002. Hopefully, we'll see more of the same out of Chad and LaColes when it starts to count.

-The Yanks have cut Boston's lead to 3 games. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Boston's upcoming schedule means it's still highly unlikely the Yanks can catch the Sox. The wild-card, however, is a different story, although I still lead towards Oakland and their pitching.

-My boy Zach Duke shut the Mets out through seven innings one night. I'd like to have seen the Mets beat him 2-1 or something, but I don't mind that kind of loss too much. Duke is now 6-0, 1.87 in 2005.

-Curt Schilling will return to the starting rotation on Thursday against Kansas City. (It's about time). Mike Timlin will close until Keith Foulke is ready to return, presumably in the first week of September. Wade Miller will likely go into the bullpen when he returns from the disabled list. Also, 2004 postseason hero Mark Bellhorn was designated for assignment by the Red Sox.

-The Mets lost about 25 minutes ago, 7-3 to Washington, to cap off the 4-2 homestand. My boy Mike Jacobs hit a 3-run home run in his first major-league at bat, which was really the lone highlight of the game. The bullpen did pitch well, however; after Kris Benson was bombed for 6 runs in 2/3 of an innings, Juan Padilla, Danny Graves, and Aaron Heilman combined for 8 1/3 innings of 1-run baseball.

As we sit today, after the Yankee victory over Texas last night, Boston leads New York by 5 games in both columns. Any Red Sox fan would have taken that number in a heartbeat if you asked on April 3rd, but right now it appears as if the Yankees have even overachieved gien the circumstances, with injuries ravaging their pitching staff.

So, what exactly are the chances of a Boston victory in the AL East?

They've got to be pretty good. Not only is Boston up a 5-spot on the Yankees in the AL East, they have 27 games left at home compared to just 22 on the road. Boston's .667 winning percentage at Fenway this year in certainly encouraging. If the Red Sox play to their season percentages at home and on the road to close out 2005, they will hang up about 95 wins come October 3rd.

The Yankees' chances of matching that number, at at best, minimal. Using that formula to caluclate the Yankee record at the end of the year, they win win only approximately 86 games.

While this formula does not factor in strength of schedule, it certainly is accurate enough to give a basic measure of the two teams' season performance. And, it reveals the Red Sox to be the prohibitive favorite in the AL East.

Cameron, Beltran Updates

Mike Cameron and Carlos Beltran are still in a San Diego hospital following injuries sustained in yesterday's collision. (To view the collision, click here)

Cameron has sustained a broken nose, a mild concussion, and multiple fractures to both cheekbones. He will need surgery and likely is done for 2005.

Beltran, was slightly more lucky, sustaining a mild concussion, abrasions on the left side of his face, a minor displaced facial fracture, and an injury to his left shoulder. No timetable has been set for Carlito's return, but he may be out until September, or later.

Cameron was placed on the 15-day DL, and Victor Diaz has been recalled from Norfolk, presuably to be the regular right fielder for the rest of the season.

Our hearts go out to Cammy and Carlito, Cammy especially, and wish him a safe recovery.

The Mets did lose today. But that's secondary to the health of our good friend Mike Cameron.

Cameron and Carlos Beltran collided in the seventh inning when diving for a flyball. Both lay on the ground for a long period of time before Beltran was able to get up and leave the field on his own power.

Cameron, however, had to be carted off.

Reports are coming in that Cammy has sustained a minor concussion, a broken nose, and multiple fractures to his cheekbones. He's been placed on the disabled list, and don't look for him in uniform for the rest of 2005.

GET WELL SOON, MIKE

..and falling fast.

That's Yankee fan Scott Harper, who was dumb enough to jump from the upper deck at Yankee Stadium last night. In the eighth inning, during a Derek Jeter sac bunt, Harper proclaimed to his friends something along the lines of "you think the net will hold me"? Luckily for him (and the people below him,) it did, but not he faces charges of reckless endangerment, criminal mischief, criminal trespass, and disorderly conduct.

The fall was entertaining in itself, but the game was even better. Chicago knocked off the Yankees, 2-1, behind former Yankee Jose Contreras and his stellar outing. With the score 1-0 in the top of the ninth, Joe Torre let lefthander Alan Embree face righthanded power hitter Paul Konerko. The result, in the words of Michael Kay...

"Hit DEEP to left-center field...giving chase Womack...he's on the run...SEE YA!"

Classic, just like Georgie Steinbrenner's reaction to the managerial decision was...

"I'm not very pleased with the manager. I don't know why the left the lefthander in there..."

Oh, but I do! Konerko entered that at-bat hitting all of .209 against lefthanded pitching in 2005! And he was only a career 1-for-five against Embree, who had been throwing the ball very well in his past three appearances.

A word of advice, George: shut the hell up. "Don't criticize what you can't understand."

Boston Marathon

When Boston and Texas hook up at Fenway, you expect a shootout, and that's what we got last night. After taking a 7-2 lead, the combination of Mike Remlinger, who gave up four runs in his Red Sox debut, and Chad Bradford, coughed up the lead in the seventh. After burning the entire bullpen except for Jeremi Gonzalez and Manny Declarmen, Boston was able to win the game in the tenth on an Edgar Renteria single. That's great for Edgar, who made two errors in the game and has been a major disappointment in the field in 2005.

Why call it a Boston Marathon? The game lasted an unruly 4:13.

The Sox made some transactions before the game. They shipped OF Jose Cruz Jr. to Los Angeles for a player to be named. Wade Miller also went on the 15-day DL with a sore right shoulder.

Today's Schedule

White Sox (Garcia, 11-5, 3.83) @ Yankees (Small, 3-0, 3.15), 1:05 PM

Rangers (Rogers, 11-4, 2.77) @ Red Sox (Arroyo, 9-7, 4.24), 7:05 PM

Mets (Benson, 7-4, 3.72) @ Padres (Lawrence, 6-11, 4.43), 10:05 PM

Other Notes

-An arbitrator ruled Kenny Rogers' 20-game suspension unjust and he ended his suspension 13 games in. My question is, who the hell are all these arbitrators, and how are they more powerful than Bud Selig? I'd make a good arbitrator someday.

-The Mets lost on the road last night. Big suprise. Even Pedro Martinez isn't immune to the road woes. The loss drops the Mets to 21-32 on the road.

-Herm Edwards announced Chad Pennington (shoulder) and Ty Law won't play in the Jets fisr preseason game on August 13th. Pennington's rehabilitation is still on schedule and he's expected to be ready for the season opener in Kansas City.

-Seattle phenom SP Felix Hernandez pitched 8 shutout innings last night at Safeco, as the M's beat the Twins. But I still like Zach Duke better.

Today marks the first day I've ever opened up with football, and it's for good reason. Ty Law's coming to town.

The three-time Super Bowl winner with the Patriots still has some fire left in him, as evidenced by some of his statements during the introductory press conference yesterday. His words were along the lines of he had nothing left to prove in New England, and wants to win a championship with New York.

Questions are there about his health and age, and he's no doubt a risk. But ask yourself this: would the Jets win the Super Bowl this year with Ray Mickens starting at CB? Of course not. Peyton Manning could pick him apart like he did with Roc Alexander in last year's postseason. Law may be a bust, and he by no means guarantees a Jets Super Bowl win or even a playoff birth, but the Jets can't win without him.

2005 is our chance.

Yanks, BoSox Win, Stay 3.5 Apart

Boston keeps hitting. No matter who they play or who's pitching, they seem to score runs. Which is good, because they can't seem to find much starting pitching.

Wade Miller got rocked last night, albeit by an offensive juggernaut in Texas, but he hasn't been what Boston expected since coming off the DL in May. He's just 4-4 with a 4.95 ERA in 16 starts, and averages barely over 5 innings per start. Forcing any bullpen, and especially the weak Boston bullpen, to get 12 outs is not an economical thing to do. Miller may be the guy to lose his rotation spot when Curt Schilling returns to the top of the starting staff.

That said, Boston's still hot. They've won 9 of 11 and remained 3.5 ahead of the Yankees in the AL East with last night's victory over Texas. Tony Graffanino hit a go-ahead, three-run home run in the fifth that proved to be the difference. Jeremi Gonzalez got the win in relief, as he posted 2.2 innings of shutout baseball.

The Yanks beat an old friend in El Duque, 3-2, last night to keep pace with Boston. It was only the Yankees' second victory this season when they've scored under 4 runs. Alex Rodriguez hit his 31st home run, and Mike Mussina picked up the win with 6 good innings.

Today's Schedule

Rangers (Benoit, 3-1, 2.49) @ Red Sox (Clement, 11-3, 4.67), 7:05 PM

White Sox (Contreras, 6-6, 4.41) @ Yankees (Chacon, 1-7, 3.72), 7:05 PM

Mets (Martinez, 12-3, 2.81) @ Padres (Park, 8-5, 5.84), 10:05 PM

Other Notes

-To make room on the roster and on the cap for Ty Law, the Jets released Ray Mickens on Monday. Mickens' spot as a nickelback will be filled by second-year Oklahoma product Derrick Strait.

-Kaz Matsui comes off the DL today, but in a bench role. He has lost his job at second base to Miguel Cairo. To make room for Matsui on the roster, Doug Mientkiewicz may be DL'd because of injuries sustained during a mid-basepath takeout slide against Milwaukee.

Al Leiter gave the Yankees a strong outing yesterday. And, they needed it. Badly.

Al went 5.2 innings of shutout baseball to earn his 5th win of the season, and 2nd with the Yankees. But before the game, the Yanks got some bad news on two pitchers and their respective injuries.

Randy Johnson, who tweaked his back covering first base on Saturday in Toronto, prbably will miss his next start. He's been uncharacteristically brittle this season, which is troublesome for the Yankees because Johnson is a month away from being 42. Johnson's 2005 is more likely a result of dimishing skills do to age than it is an adjustment period or tough-luck yet.

Carl Pavano might be done for the year. After tossing a rehab start, he was expected to be able to go on Tuesday, but was scratched. Pavano proclaimed that his shoulder "didn't feel right", and now is off to Alabama to see the dreaded Dr. James Andrews. Don't expect him back for anytime soon.

So without Johnson for a start or two, and Pavano for a long time, here's the Yankees rotation as we stand now:

1. Mike Mussina
2. Aaron Small
3. Shawn Chacon
4. Al Leiter
5. Hideo Nomo

Priceless.

The Yankees won yesterday but didn't gain ground on Boston, who remained 3.5 up on the Yanks by squeezing out a win at Minnesota. Manny Ramirez homered, and Curt Schilling earned another save.

Home Cooking

Nobody can beat the Mets at home. It's just too bad the Mets can't beat anybody on the road.

The road is where the Mets are headed now, after sweeping Chicago. We're off the to the West Coast, for 3 against the NL-West leading Padres and 3 against the Dodgers. While we should beat these teams, don't bank on it. the Mets are just 21-31 on the road, good for a .403 winning percentage.

Victor Zambrano pitched a great game last night, going 8 strong innings. The only blemishes were back-to-back doubles by the Cubs' Michael Barrett and Jose Macias that plated a run. Zambrano won his 6th game of the year, and lowered his ERA to an even 4.

Cliff Floyd and David Wright provided most of the offense for the Mets. Floyd was 3-for-3 with two RBI, including a long solo home run, his 26th of the season. Although Wright had only 1 hit, he drove in 3 runs, 2 on productive outs. Wright has 64 RBI on the season, second on the team, and is on pace to drive in 93. He has an outside shot at 100, very impressive for a 22-year-old.

Other Notes

-Three Cy Young frontrunners pitched on Sunday: Dontrelle Willis for Florida, Roger Clemens for Houston, and Chris Carpenter for the Cards. Clemens continued to pull away from the pack. Willis and Carpenter both had fantastic outings, but their ERA's no longer compare to that of Clemens, who now gets some run support to go with it. With 7 innings and no earned runs against San Francisco, Clemens improved to 11-4, 1.38 on the season. He also lowered his unreal road ERA to 0.37.

A week after I bury the Mets season, they come back firing. After two straight wins over Chicago, the Mets are now just 3 games behind Wild Card leader Houston.

In my heart of hearts, I don't think this team can make the playoffs. But they seem to promise one thing that last year's club couldn't; remaining in contention through the summer and playing exciting baseball throughout.

The "surge" is likely a result of the recent homestand; the Mets are a drastically better team at home than on the road, and now have played six more home games than they have road games. Houston, on the other hand, has played 59 road games against 51 home games.

All the Mets need to get back in the race is a great road trip. However, they're running out of oppurtunities. The harsh reality is, the 2005 Mets are no better than a .500 club.

But hey, they're watchable. What more can a man ask?

Randy Rocked

11-7, 4.29. Those are Randy Johnson's numbers for 2005.

He was supposed to be the ace. The Yankees' answer to Curt Schilling. The one guy they lacked last year against Boston.

Hell, some things don't work out as they were planned. Johnson's fall to mediocrity has been fast and sudden, and the questions surrounding the pitching staff are even greater in 2005 after spending $116 million on three starters, Johnson, Carl Pavano, and Jaret Wright, all of whom have been major busts in the Big Apple. The most consistent starter at this point is journeyman Aaron Small, and even John Sterling knows deep down that fairy tale is destined to hit a brick wall soon.

For the first time since I began following baseball, I can say this with confidence: the Yankees will not qualify for the postseason. They just aren't good enough. And, damn, it feels good to watch the Empire crumble.

Other Notes

-Zach Duke has given up a season-high 3 earned runs tonight through seven innings, but it appears as if he's in line for victory number 5. He's in the process of outpitching Odalis Perez and the LA Dodgers.

There have been many reasons I haven't posted in a few days, mainly, because of laziness. Another major contributor is the death of the Mets playoff hopes on Friday, which has a major emotional impact on someone like me. Yet, I've sucked it up and continued to enjoy life, and now return.

It would be maddening to write article-length entries on everything that's happened since July 30, so I'll go with the bullet-style format. Enjoy.

-Willie Randolph can't manage a ball game. He's a nice guy, but managing isn't his field. After using Robbie Hernandez and Braden Looper for 2 innings apiece and 34 and 35 pitches respectively in the Tuesday night game, Randolph summons the two once more on Wednesday and predictably, the plan fails. Hernandez gives up a game tying homer to the impressive Carlos Lee in the eighth, and Looper allows a two-run single to Lyle Overbay in the ninth that puts the Brewers up for good. Looper's been very solid as of late, but his inability to retire lefties is a liability in a closer; their .293 average against him is not acceptable and although he makes a serviceable closer, he's better in a setup role.

-Willie Randolph can't manage a ball game, part two. After running Hernandez out there on Wednesday off of a 2-innings performance, you think he'd realize his 40-year-old fireballer needs a day off. Not! Willie once again calls on Robbie, and poor Robbie labors to the tune of five earner runs in one inning. Instead of staying with Danny Graves, who had retired three batters in a row in a sharp eighth inning, Randolph goes to the overworked righthanded once more and once again it costs him a game.

-The Red Sox are red hot, winners of eight straight. It's a great move for them that they didn't move Manny Ramirez, who's been tearing the cover off the ball since the trade rumors died down. Boston, now 17 games over .500, looks to be putting together a second-half run reminiscent of the torrid streak they went on last year.

-The Yankees can't pitch. They got away with bad outings on Saturday and Sunday due to an overworked Angels bullpen, but have paid for their poor starting pitching in Cleveland. Al Leiter and Mike Mussina each gave up six earned runs, and the Yanks lost both games. They enter tonight at Cleveland 5 back of Boston and fadin' fast.

-Baltimore fired Lee Mazzilli today, which isn't entirely justified, but it probably had to be done. New York idol Maz had that team playing over their collective head for three months, and now pays the price with his job as they come back to earth. If they played consistent .500 ball the whole year, he'd probably still have his job. That said, the Orioles have lost 16 of 20 and if they don't make a move now, they'd give the impression to the public that it's okay to lose games and therefore suffer in the box office.

-Rafael Palmeiro is a lying liar. You all know the story by now and I won't recount the details, but I'm tired of these athletes and their phony little excuses for cheating. At least have the class to fess up when you get caught, but class is likely a concept that eludes Palmeiro.

-Zach Duke is the man. He's now 4-0, 0.92 in 6 starts, most recently an 8.1 inning, 1 run performance in a victory over Atlanta. It may be early to be breaking out the Steve Carlton comparisons and the Hall-of-Fame ballots, but it's pretty hard not to at this stage of the game.

-The NHL free agent season has been entertaining. The Isles brought in a few guys that I like, but I won't bother trying to spell their names. With everybody in a different place and a vastly different game in the offing, the 2005-6 NHL season threatens to be mildly entertaining.

-I went to Jets camp a few days back. Chad Pennington looks rusty, Jay Fiedler looks terrible, and Laveranues Coles looks like he's hurting. Other than that, all's well. The wonder from down under, Aussie punter Ben Graham, looks to be an asset, and Mike Nugent is somewhat impressive as well. So, we can kick but we can't score.

-I'll be at Shea tomorrow, to see Tommy Glavine once more. I hope it isn't brutally hot out, but it threatens to be just that. I can gut it out, no worries.

-Yankees @ Cleveland tonight, Chacon and Millwood. Chacon tries to give a second consecutive strong start to start his Yankee career, and Millwood tries to turn his impressive ERA into a W. He's getting no run support, as evidenced by his 5-9 record despite a stellar 3.18 ERA.