Tuesday, July 12, 2005

 

Second Half Predictions

American League East
Preseason Pick: New York Yankees
Midseason Pick: Boston Red Sox


I thought the Yankees would be a juggernaut with their offseason free-agent singings and the trade for Randy Johnson. The moves in the starting rotation certainly haven't panned out, and the saving grace for them on this current win streak has been the offense. The Yanks have proved too streaky for my tastes, and while they'll come close, Boston has proven themselves to be a better team. And, they're yet to get Curt Schilling back.

American League Central
Preseason Pick: Minnesota Twins
Midseason Pick: Chicago White Sox

I'll be honest, I didn't see the White Sox coming. They have been impressive, and it seems that every move manager Ozzie Guillen employs turns to gold. They will cool off a tad in the second half, but the Twins sit nine games back and too far away to mount a serious charge.

American League West
Preseason Pick: Los Angeles Angels
Midseason Pick: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels struggled a bit in the beginning of the year, especially offensively, but have gotten on a roll and now boast the American League's second best record. Texas might have a chance, but their pitching is too weak and inconsistent to bank on. Plus, the forthcoming suspension to Kenny Rogers will further deplete the Rangers' starting rotation.

American League Wild Card
Preseason Pick: Boston Red Sox
Midseason Pick: Minnesota Twins

I still have the Red Sox in the postseason as the AL East winner. Minnesota has struggled with injuries on the infield and a subpar Johan Santana, but they're about to get help as some of the wounded heal and Santana embarks on what should be a spectacular second half. They will have face face a charge from as many as four teams, but the Twins have the experience and the leadership to get to the postseason for the fourth straight year.

American League Champion
Preseason Pick: Los Angeles Angels
Current Pick: Boston Red Sox

Boston would be approaching 55 wins if they had even an average bullpen. Rumors have them picking up Eddie Guardado, Chad Qualls, Ricky Bottalico and Chad Bradford. I have faith in Theo Epstein to go out and get some help in the pen, to put the finishing touches on what looks like the American League's best all-around team. The White Sox can't be counted out, however, but chances are they aren't as good as they have shown. Los Angeles lacks the starting pitching to get it done in October, outside of Bartolo Colon.

National League East
Preseason Pick: Atlanta Braves
Midseason Pick: Atlanta Braves

I hate the Braves, I really do, but they win every year. This season is following a similar blueprint to many past pennant wins. Despite placing rookie after rookie in the starting lineup, and inserting relief pitchers into the starting rotation, Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone have kept this team afloat. Once Chipper Jones, John Thomson, Mike Hampton, and Tim Hudson return from their ailments, Atlanta should go on a tear and blow away the surprising Nationals as well as the rest of the division.

National League Central
Preseason Pick: St. Louis Cardinals
Midseason Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

I thought the Cards would win this divison, but I doubted they would be this good. With a solid rotation and fearsome lineup, St. Louis is poised for another runaway win in the Central. Plus, they haven't even gotten Scott Rolen rollin' yet. The Astros have a shot to mount an impressive charge, but in the Wild Card race and not against the Cardinals. The team that has disappointed me in this division is Cincinnati. I thought they could challenge St. Louis, but instead, they're challenging Milwaukee and Pittsburgh for the cellar.

National League West
Preseason Pick: San Diego Padres
Midseason Pick: San Diego Padres

This division is so weak, San Diego could play ten games under .500 from here on in and still likely win the divison with around 77-80 wins. The Giants look old, the Dodgers are plagued by injuries, Arizona has faded fast, and the Rockies just plain suck and are about to host "Fire Sale 2005." San Diego is the most complete team of the bunch, and nobody is good enough to even challenge them for the divison.

National League Wild Card
Preseason Pick: Florida Marlins
Midseason Pick: Florida Marlins

It's tough to stick with Florida, but I don't see enough of an obvious alternative to warrant deserting them. On the law of averages, you have to bet that Mike Lowell and Juan Pierre come back with good second halves, and if they keep A.J. Burnett and get Josh Beckett back soon, the rotation is as solid as there is in the NL. I have a feeling Washington is about to fall off the proverbial cliff, so the main charge to Florida should be Houston. They pulled it off last year, and if they find a first baseman at the deadline (Sean Casey? Aubrey Huff?) the 'Stros could pull it off once again.

National League Champion
Preseason Pick: Florida Marlins
Midseason Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

I have faith in Florida to win the Wild Card, but they aren't good enough to beat Atlanta or St. Louis in a head-to-head matchup. St. Louis is obviously the most complete team in the National League and they have the potential to walk over the field en route to another World Series Berth.

World Series Champion
Preseason Pick: Los Angeles Angels
Midseason Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

I have St. Louis beating Boston in a measure of revenge from last year. The pitching was a big problem in October 2004 for St. Louis, and now they have they squared away with getting Matt Morris and Chris Carpenter healthy and acquiring Mark Mulder. I can't see any reason not to go with the Cardinals to win it all.

****

My preseason picks can be viewed here.

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