Defeat the Empire

The Brewers are a classic example of a struggling franchise. They haven't finished over .500 since 1992. But last year, for the first time since '92, they finished at .500. They have a great young collection of position players, and finally seem to be on the track towards respectability.

Prince Fielder, the son of former slugger Cecil Fielder, is one of the best prospects in baseball. The Brewers think so much of him that they dealt Lyle Overbay away to the Blue Jays to make room for the 21-year-old phenom. It's clear that he can hit; he smacked 28 home runs in just 378 AAA at-bats last year, with a line of .291/.388/.369. The only concerns with Fielder are his suspect defense and weight (260 lbs.), which has led some scouts to think he'd be better fit as a DH in the American League.

Another young stud will line up on the right side of the Brewer infield. Rickie Weeks, a second baseman, has drawn comparisons to Gary Sheffield at the plate and impressed many while starting last second. JJ Hardy will start at shortstop. Hardy struggled with the bat for most of 2005 but came on strong late, and the Brewers remain high on him.

The anchor of this lineup comes from the outfield. Geoff Jenkins is a powerful lefthanded bat and a long-tenured Brewer. Carlos Lee had a very good season last year after coming over from the White Sox for Scott Podsednik, driving in 114 runs. If Lee isn't traded (there are some rumblings about him being moved, as he's a free agent after the season,) he should continue to be productive. And Brady Clark, who was a scrap-heap type minor league veteran prior to his Milwaukee renaissance, will hit leadoff. He has posted OBP's of .385 and .372 in 2004 and 2005, respectively.

The main hole in this team is the mediocre pitching staff. Ben Sheets is a true ace and isn't a question mark. Chris Capuano and Doug Davis, a pair of soft-tossing lefties, are slotted next in the rotation. Capuano's success in 2005 was suprising, as he started 35 games and won 18. Davis also is solid, as evidenced by his 3.39 and 3.84 ERA's the past two years. Tomo Ohka will by the number four starter, and keep the team in games. A battle will be staged for the fifth slot in the rotation between Dave Bush, Dana Eveland, and Rick Helling. Eveland is the favorite to win. Derrick Turnbow is an intimidating closer that came from nowhere, and Dan Kolb has been brought back to set him up after Kolb's atrocious 2005 with Atlanta. Jose Capellan also will pitch in key situations in a bullpen that is weak outside of the closer's slot.

The Brewers have a very good shot at cracking the .500 mark for the first time in 14 years. If the young players continue to get better, and the pitching remains, solid, second place in the division isn't impossible. Outlook: 4th Place, NL Central

When you haven't won a World Series in nearly a century, it's painful to watch any team parade around after reaching baseball's pinnacle. But it's even more painful to watch your hated crosstown rivals celebrate.

That's what the Cubs had to endure last October, as the White Sox swept away the Astros to win the World Series. The Cubs went through another mediocre season filled with an assortment of injuries, which has become commonplace when talking about the talented, but underachieving and oft-injured duo of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.

Derrek Lee's breakout season was the only major positive to result from Chicago's 79-83 season. Lee contended for the triple crown for months, despite little protection from those around him in the lineup, before fading late. If the Cubs are to contend in 2006, Lee needs to duplicate his 2005 magic. Aramis Ramirez is the next best hitter in the lineup, a feared slugger who signed a lucrative extension last year that will carry him through 2009. The outfield was revamped, as the Cubs traded for Juan Pierre and signed Jacque Jones, and dealt the disappointing Corey Patterson and let Jeromy Burnitz walk. The top four in this lineup (Pierre, Todd Walker, Lee, and Ramirez) has a chance to be very good, but there's a massive dropoff in talent after that.

Wood, Prior, and Carlos Zambrano were supposed to be a monster top three that anchored this staff for a decade. Wood has been the biggest disappointment. He's again coming off of shoulder surgery and he may start the year on the DL or in the bullpen. Zambrano has been very good, and perhaps the most consistent and durable of the three, despite the tennis elbow he developed last year. Prior has been effective, but he's brittle, although not as much so as Wood. Greg Maddux returns for his 21st major league season, and is certainly on the decline but can still be effective towards the back of a rotation. The bullpen has killed the Cubs in past years (remember LaTroy Hawkins?), but they found a serviceable closer last year in former starter Ryan Dempster and signed him to an extension. They spend good money in the offseason to add some setup relief to the pen as well, bringing in Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry off of the free agent market.

While the Cubs look decent on paper, they always do, and it's hard not to imagine that a few key cogs will spend significant time on the DL. Also, Derrek Lee likely will not duplicate his monster 2005. They are only slightly better than they were last year and should battle the .500 mark for the duration of the season. Outlook: 3rd Place, NL Central

Enough with 'team outlooks' for a little while. Two spring trainings ago, we had Jason Phillips at first base, Karim Garcia in the outfield, and Scott Erickson battling for a spot in the starting rotation.

Let's take a moment to be thankful. Since that bleak time in February 2004, this team has improved tenfold. Think about this: we're the odds-on favorite to win the NL East. And, we're second only to the Cardinals in the NL Pennant odds. Around the league, the Mets are viewed as an elite team.

Of course, they aren't there yet. Guys have to step up, like the bum in the picture to the left, Carlos Beltran. If he can return to pre-2005 form, the Mets 3-4-5 in the lineup of Beltran-Carlos Delgado-David Wright will be among the best in the major leagues.

The roster and lineup are pretty much set, except for a few places, most notably second base, right field, and some slots towards the back of the bullpen. Now, let's break down the uncertainties and the position battles.

Second Base: Kaz Matsui v. Anderson Hernandez v. Jeff Keppinger v. Bret Boone

Matsui is the prohibitive favorite here, due to his massive salary of $7 million. Unless he is a grave embarassment in spring training or is dealt, he will start on opening day. That doesn't mean he has long-term security if he continues to suck. Anderson Hernandez, acquired from the Tigers in exchange for Vance Wilson last January, had a breakout 2005 in Binghamton and Norfolk. He hit very well at both levels, which was surprising considering his struggles with the bat during previous years, and has always had a stellar glove.

Jeff Keppinger won the AA batting title in 2004, a season in which he was dealt to the Mets along with Kris Benson. He was mashing last year at Norfolk before a dirty takeout slide ended his season. Keppinger is limited in terms of tools, but he is a hard-nosed player who compares favorably to a Ty Wigginton. Bret Boone, signed by the Mets to a minor league contract after the New Year, is unlikely to make the team. He hit just .170 with the Twins last season after being cut by the Mariners, and is widely viewed as finished.

Right Field: Victor Diaz v. Xavier Nady

Victor Diaz can hit, but he can't field. He always appears awkward in the outfield, fueling the views of scouts that say he's best suited to be a designated hitter in the American League. He's a fan favorite, however, with very good offensive potential, so he may get a chance to start. Xavier Nady came to the Mets from San Diego for Mike Cameron. Nady appears to be more of a role player than a starter, and he can also play the corner infield positions in addition to playing the outfield. Minaya has surprisingly dubbed Nady as part of the core of the future of the Mets, along with Jose Reyes and David Wright, so that possibly lends credence to the notion of Nady being the Mets right fielder come April 3rd. Still, Diaz remains the favorite.

Bullpen

Some spots in the pen are solidified, namely those of Billy Wagner, Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Julio, and Chad Bradford. Juan Padilla is also exceedingly likely to be included on the staff, due to his 1.49 ERA with the Mets last year. That leaves several guys competing for two spots. The likelyhood is one will be a lefthander, with Aaron Heilman (who has a changeup that was able to routinely retire left-handed batters) in the rotation and Wagner the only lefty in the pen. The problem is, the lefthanders the Mets have invited to camp are downright unimpressive; Matt Perisho was rocked by lefthanded batters last year, Royce Ring was in the Met management's doghouse by the end of 2005, and Darren Oliver was lit up in AAA. The righthanders competing for slots will be Heath Bell, Bartolome Fortunato, Japanese import Yusaku Iriki, John Maine, and Steve Schmoll (the throw-in from the Duaner Sanchez-Jae Seo deal). My best guess is that Ring and Bell will make the team out of the spring.

One last piece of good (but old) news: Carl Pavano can't throw off a mound for another week. He's certainly worth $40 million!

The Houston Astros will seemingly always find a way. Before the season started last year, I had them penciled in as a .500 team, or possibly even worse, due to the losses of Carlos Beltran, and Jeff Kent, as well as an injury to Lance Berkman that sidelined him for the start of the season. My prediction seemed to be validated when they started 15-30. But soon, the ship turned around, and the rotation of Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Andy Pettitte was shutting down offenses on a nightly basis. The stellar pitching led the Astros to their first ever National League title.

Due to their success last year with relatively no offensive production, I've tentatively kept them in second place in the NL Central for 2006. Clemens is no longer with the team, but he may re-sign with Houston come May 1. That leaves Pettite and Oswalt to head a significantly weaker rotation, which is filled out by the mediocre Brandon Backe and the unproven Ezequiel Astacio and Wandy Rodriguez. The bullpen remains stellar as ever, with Brad Lidge closing games. Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, and Russ Springer are the best in the business in the seventh and eighth innings, and they provide a great bridge from the starters to Lidge.

The problem remains the offense, which should be putrid as usual. Last year, Morgan Ensberg came out of nowhere and had an all-star caliber season. They need him to continue at last year's level of production, although that seems somewhat unlikely. Jeff Bagwell says he will try to play, but chances are he won't be able to man first base on a daily basis. Lance Berkman will have to carry this offense, plain and simple, if they want a chance to put up even three or four runs on a daily basis.

The Astros aren't as good as they were in the previous two years, as part of their core gets a bit older and their starting rotation takes a hit. Despite this, the pitching should be good enough to secure somewhere in the low-80s in wins and a second place finish. Outlook: 2nd Place, NL Central

The Cardinals are becoming a model of consistency, one of the certainties in an otherwise uncertain baseball world. They've qualified for the postseason in five of the past six years, and won 100 games the past two. Despite a terrible season from Scott Rolen and nagging injuries from corner outfield veterans Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders, both of whom are no longer with the team, last year's Cards were able to go to the NLCS, where they would fall to the Astros.

Some of the players in St. Louis are new for 2006, but the premise is the same; build around a 3-4-5 in the lineup of Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, and Rolen, and plug in role players at the other positions than can contribute in ways other than hitting the ball out of the park. Sanders and Walker are gone this year, one to Kansas City and the other to retirement, and to replace Sanders in the lineup, general manager Walt Jocketty brought in Juan Encaracion from Florida. Encarnacion is gifted with great power, but he's been plagued in past seasons by lack of plate discipline and streakiness. Mark Gruzielanek, a player that came to the Cards off the scrap heap last offseason, is gone, and is replaced by either longtime minor-leaguer and former Rockie Aaron Miles, or Junior Spivey, who had his season with the Brewers last season wrecked by injury.

The pitching staff should be very strong, despite the defection of starting pitcher Matt Morris to San Francisco. Chris Carpenter won the NL Cy Young Award last year, although he clearly overachieved and also should have lost the award to Roger Clemens (1.87 ERA). Nevertheless, there's no reason to believe Carpenter can't at least pitch the way he did in 2004, when he went 15-5. Mark Mulder is up next, who unsurprisingly had an extremely solid year in 2005 (16-8, 3.64) and should post similar numbers. Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan are also slotted for the rotation. Both are righthanders who can keep the team in games and allow the powerful offense to win it. The fifth starter's job supposedly is going to be a competition between the often troubled Sidney Ponson and top prospect Anthony Reyes, but it's hard to envision a scenario where the Cards don't give the gig to Reyes coming out of spring training. Jason Isringhausen will be back as the closer, and setting him up is another former Met, Braden Looper. Looper struggled last year as the closer in Queens but reportedly pitched injured the entire season and had surgery early in the offseason.

The Cardinals once again should be a juggernaut, probably improving on last year's 100 wins assuming Scott Rolen is able to stay healthy. Despite what Vegas says, the Cardinals enter 2006 as the favorites to win the National League. Outlook: 1st place, NL Central

Many people, including myself, were impressed by the Florida Marlins in the runup to the 2005 season. They had acquired Carlos Delgado and Al Leiter to complement strengths in the rotation and lineup. I even had them winning the National League, but my vision of the future was uncanny: "This could be Florida's last chance to win as a team, and much of their young core hits free agency and arbitration. Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, and Juan Pierre will see their salaries jump substantially after this year, and Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis will hit arbitration after 2006." (My words from February 2005.) Beckett and Burnett are now gone to the AL East, as is Delgado, and the rebuilding project in South Florida is fully underway.

At best, 2006 will be a rebuilding year for the Marlins. At worst, it will be a disaster. Outside of Cabrera and Willis, they have no proven major league caliber players in either the lineup or the rotation. Despite this, they seem to have a solid future based upon the slew of prospects they acquired in multiple trades. Studs Jeremy Hermida, who is homegrown, and Mike Jacobs, whow as acquired in the Delgado trade with the Mets, will hit in the middle of the Marlins batting order and provide power and protection for Cabrera. Hanley Ramirez, who came over from Boston in the Beckett deal, may get a chance to start in the middle infield by opening day, is a five-tool prospect who had a disappointing 2005. Eric Reed is Juan Pierre's replacement, and has a skill set similar to that of Pierre, who was traded to the Cubs. In short, this offense is young and raw, and will with little doubt struggle, but has great potential for future seasons.

The pitching staff is similar to the offense, in that it has one proven star (Willis), and several young guns with high ceilings. Youngsters Jason Vargas, Sergio Mitre, and Scott Olsen will start the year in the rotation, and likely will be joined later on by Yusmiero Petit, the other key piece from the Delgado deal. The bullpen is in a similar state, with stud prospects such as Travis Bowyer possibly closing games. Bowyer is unlikely to be ready at this point, but he's the best option the Marlins have after letting Todd Jones walk and trading Guillermo Mota and Ron Villone.

This team has a decent shot to lose 110 games. The crowds in South Florida will be miniscule, and rumors of relocation rampant. (Jeffrey Loria and other Marlins officals have already discussed the topic with the cities of Las Vegas, Portland, and Oklahoma City). The talent is there, but the time simply isn't now. Outlook: 5th Place, NL East

In the first half of 2005, the Nationals were a capitivating national story. In their first year in DC, they were 20 games above .500, Chad Cordero was racking up saves, and they were proving the sabermetricians wrong by piling up one-run wins with consistency. But soon, the foundation fell in, and by the end of the season, the Nats were where everyone expected them to be -- last place.

Jim Bowden made a big move in the offseason, trading for Alfonso Soriano. He intended to move Soriano to the outfield, but Soriano has refused and likely will start at second base. Many feel the former Yankee and Ranger will be a bust, and with good reason; on the road in 2005, his hitting percentages were a terrible .224/.265/.374. Robert F. Kennedy Stadium is hardly a hitters' park, so Soriano should stuggle offensively.

If the Nationals are to have a chance in 2006, which is unlikely, the pitching will have to be as dominant as it was in the early going last year. Livan Hernandez, John Patterson, and Brian Lawrence (acquired from San Diego for Vinny Castilla) head the rotation, and Chad Cordero in the bullpen is a rock. The offense is at best, average, led by Jose Guillen, Nick Johnson, and Soriano. The Nats are putting alot of stock into 21-year-old third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who tore the league apart last year during a September call-up. His success led to the trade of Vinny Castilla early in the offseason.

The Nationals likely will be overmatched in this division, which contains the Mets, Braves, and Phillies. However, their solid pitching should keep them out of last place. Outlook: 4th Place, NL East

In the early going in 2005, the Phillies appeared to be dead. They rested in last place in the NL East, as the only team under .500 in the division and were suffering from poor seasons from veterans like David Bell and Jim Thome, as well as some key injuries. But once June struck, the Phillies got hot, and thrust themselves into the playoff race with alot of help from young players, namely Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and and Robinson Tejeda.

The Phillies seem to be building their team around the right side of their infield, containing Utley and Howard. To make room at first base for Howard, they dealt Thome to the White Sox for Aaron Roward, who will start at centerfield. Rowand is a great defensive outfielder and also can contribute with the bat. With a lineup 1-8 of Jimmy Rollins, Rowand, Abreu, Utley, Pat Burrell, Howard, Mike Lieberthal, and David Bell, Philadelphia should be able to whack with the best in baseball.

The problem centers around the pitching. The rotation will contain three journeyman veterans in Corey Lidle, Jon Lieber, and Ryan Franklin, at least until Randy Wolf's return at midsummer. Ryan Madson may be shifted into the rotation, depending on what the Phils do with Robinson Tejeda, who had success last year as a starter. Young Brett Myers will be the ace of the staff after a breakout 2005 season.

The bullpen is also weak. Unable to win a bidding war with the Mets to retain closer Billy Wagner, the Phils signed aging Yankee setup man Tom Gordon to close. Philadelphia also whiffed in their pursuit of Braden Looper, and now are stuck with Arthur Rhodes and Ricardo Rodriguez as setup men.

In short, the Phillies are the NL East's version of the Yankees or Red Sox, but just not nearly as proficient. While the offense will score runs, especially at home, the pitching is simply too weak at this juncture to forsee this team making inroads into the postseason. Outlook: 3rd Place, NL East

When Omar Minaya took the job as NY Mets general manager in October 2004, he was granted "full autonomy" by Fred Wilpon. Or, in other words, he was granted an open wallet, which has led to the signings of Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran, and Billy Wagner, as well as the trade for Carlos Delgado. These moves have positioned the Mets as the odds-on favorite in Vegas to win the NL East.

Still, many of Minaya's trades have been troubling. He swapped two top prospects, Yusmiero Petit and Mike Jacobs, to Florida in exchange for Delgado, who the Marlins had no choice but to deal. He traded for Paul LoDuca, who was at the bottom of the barrel last year among catchers in all-important OPS, instead of signing either Bengie Molina or Ramon Hernandez. And, he dealt starter Kris Benson, who was the Mets second best starter for months last year for reliever Jorge Julio, who is years removed from his last good season.

Despite the questionable trades, the Mets are infinitely better than they were when Minaya took over, and one cannot doubt his Latino pull over Martinez and Beltran as a factor in their decisions to come to Flushing Meadows. 2005 was a step in the right direction, but the attitude is now that it's time to win.

The starting rotation was very deep at the start of the offseason, but was weakened by the trades of Jae Seo and Kris Benson. The Mets starting five is now Martinez, who is battling a chronic toe injury; Tom Glavine, who will be 40 by opening day; Aaron Heilman, who has never had success as a starter in the majors; Victor Zambrano, who hangs under the cloud of Scott Kazmir; and Steve Trachsel, who is in decline and missed almost all of last year with a back injury. The staff is riddled with question marks.

The bullpen, which was the team's achilles heel in 2005, is improved, however. Billy Wagner should be dominant, provided he stays healthy, and Duaner Sanchez (acquired from L.A. for Seo) will be his primary setup man. The Mets have decent arms to pencil in around those two stalworts and can build a credible relief core.

The team's strength lies in the lineup. The 3-6 hitters, in no particular order, will be David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and Cliff Floyd, all of whom are capable of hitting .300/30/100. Jose Reyes should improve at the top of the order. The main questions are in right field and second base, where the Mets will either go with Victor Diaz or Xavier Nady in RF and perhaps give the untradeable Kaz Matsui a last chance to prove himself at second base.

The Mets are much improved from a year earlier, and in a weak NL, it's hard to find 4 teams who can post a better record than the Mets. Due to the unturnable tables of history, I still like Atlanta to take the divisional crown, but the Mets can win the Wild Card handily if some things fall their way. Outlook: 2nd Place NL East, NL Wild Card Winner

The first of my 30 team outlooks for 2006 with be the Atlanta Braves. Enjoy the next month.
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Every year, sportswriters fall into the same trap, and pick a team other than the Atlanta Braves to win the National League East. Peter Gammons and countless others did so last year by going with Florida, which would fall far short of Atlanta. And in 2004, the consensus pick to win the division was revamped Philadelphia, which held a lead into midsummer but in end watched Bobby Cox and co. leave them in the dust. I haven’t made the same mistake. Every year since 2001, I’ve gone with Atlanta, and it’s never failed.

The Braves have a potential chink in their armor now, as pitching coach Leo Mazzone defected to Baltimore during the offseason. Mazzone was credited with turning career after career around, including Jaret Wright, who imploded in the Bronx last year. He also made Jorge Sosa, an unknown acquired from Tampa Bay before 2005, a 13-game winner.

The top arms in the Braves rotation should be fine even without Mazzone’s tutelage. John Smoltz and Tim Hudson are proven ace-type pitchers atop the rotation. But after that, it goes downhill. John Thomson is a journeyman starter who was injured last year and has been mostly mediocre throughout his career. Then comes Sosa, who is unlikely to repeat his 2005 heroics, and Horacio Ramirez, a young lefty. Mike Hampton is out for the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Atlanta’s youth movement is most apparent in the bullpen and lineup. Jeff Francoeur took the world by storm last summer, and he joins Ryan Langerhans and Andruw Jones in a purely homegrown outfield. In fact, the only member of Atlanta’s projected starting lineup that is not homegrown is Edgar Renteria, acquired in a trade from Boston for stud third base prospect Andy Marte. Renteria was a major disappointment in his only season with the Red Sox, but the Braves hope a return to a warmer climate and smaller market will allow him to achieve the levels of production he enjoyed while thriving with the Marlins and Cardinals earlier in his career.

This roster is built around a few notable cogs in Andruw and Chipper Jones, Smoltz and Hudson, but for the most part is a collection of youngsters and journeyman veterans. Bobby Cox will have to work some magic to achieve lucky number fifteen, but history tells us there’s no reason to believe he won’t. Outlook: 1st Place, NL East

My first basketball pick was bad. But I'll try another, just don't bet the house on this one.

boston celtics (+3) over ORLANDO MAGIC

Don't ask me why, it's a gut feeling.

As for the Super Bowl, my gut is telling me Seattle for whatever reason.

"Lock of the Century"?

Cleveland's getting fucked over. Don't ever pay attention to my basketball picks.

I love to be involved in sports gambling. I'll have alot of money running through my hands come Super Sunday......

The point being, with little else to do, I've taken to makes some NBA picks. I hate the NBA, but what can you do? Here are my recent picks:

01/27: PORTLAND (+1) over new jersey WIN
01/27: PORTLAND/new jersey under 182 WIN
01/28: SEATTLE (-4.5) over new jersey WIN
01/28: LA CLIPPERS (-3) over denver WIN
01/28: GOLDEN STATE (-5) over portland WIN
01/28: GOLDEN STATE/portland under 192 WIN
01/29: sacramento (+1.5) over TORONTO WIN
01/30: san antonio (-6) over UTAH WIN
01/30: san antonio/UTAH over 177 loss

So I've gone a nice 8-1 thus far in my new hobby. Today's pick of the day:

cleveland cavaliers (+8) over MIAMI HEAT

Cavs enter on a seven game winning streak. If you're feeling frisky, take Cleveland moneyline (+300). But Cleveland +8 is easy money tonight.