Defeat the Empire

Enough with 'team outlooks' for a little while. Two spring trainings ago, we had Jason Phillips at first base, Karim Garcia in the outfield, and Scott Erickson battling for a spot in the starting rotation.

Let's take a moment to be thankful. Since that bleak time in February 2004, this team has improved tenfold. Think about this: we're the odds-on favorite to win the NL East. And, we're second only to the Cardinals in the NL Pennant odds. Around the league, the Mets are viewed as an elite team.

Of course, they aren't there yet. Guys have to step up, like the bum in the picture to the left, Carlos Beltran. If he can return to pre-2005 form, the Mets 3-4-5 in the lineup of Beltran-Carlos Delgado-David Wright will be among the best in the major leagues.

The roster and lineup are pretty much set, except for a few places, most notably second base, right field, and some slots towards the back of the bullpen. Now, let's break down the uncertainties and the position battles.

Second Base: Kaz Matsui v. Anderson Hernandez v. Jeff Keppinger v. Bret Boone

Matsui is the prohibitive favorite here, due to his massive salary of $7 million. Unless he is a grave embarassment in spring training or is dealt, he will start on opening day. That doesn't mean he has long-term security if he continues to suck. Anderson Hernandez, acquired from the Tigers in exchange for Vance Wilson last January, had a breakout 2005 in Binghamton and Norfolk. He hit very well at both levels, which was surprising considering his struggles with the bat during previous years, and has always had a stellar glove.

Jeff Keppinger won the AA batting title in 2004, a season in which he was dealt to the Mets along with Kris Benson. He was mashing last year at Norfolk before a dirty takeout slide ended his season. Keppinger is limited in terms of tools, but he is a hard-nosed player who compares favorably to a Ty Wigginton. Bret Boone, signed by the Mets to a minor league contract after the New Year, is unlikely to make the team. He hit just .170 with the Twins last season after being cut by the Mariners, and is widely viewed as finished.

Right Field: Victor Diaz v. Xavier Nady

Victor Diaz can hit, but he can't field. He always appears awkward in the outfield, fueling the views of scouts that say he's best suited to be a designated hitter in the American League. He's a fan favorite, however, with very good offensive potential, so he may get a chance to start. Xavier Nady came to the Mets from San Diego for Mike Cameron. Nady appears to be more of a role player than a starter, and he can also play the corner infield positions in addition to playing the outfield. Minaya has surprisingly dubbed Nady as part of the core of the future of the Mets, along with Jose Reyes and David Wright, so that possibly lends credence to the notion of Nady being the Mets right fielder come April 3rd. Still, Diaz remains the favorite.

Bullpen

Some spots in the pen are solidified, namely those of Billy Wagner, Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Julio, and Chad Bradford. Juan Padilla is also exceedingly likely to be included on the staff, due to his 1.49 ERA with the Mets last year. That leaves several guys competing for two spots. The likelyhood is one will be a lefthander, with Aaron Heilman (who has a changeup that was able to routinely retire left-handed batters) in the rotation and Wagner the only lefty in the pen. The problem is, the lefthanders the Mets have invited to camp are downright unimpressive; Matt Perisho was rocked by lefthanded batters last year, Royce Ring was in the Met management's doghouse by the end of 2005, and Darren Oliver was lit up in AAA. The righthanders competing for slots will be Heath Bell, Bartolome Fortunato, Japanese import Yusaku Iriki, John Maine, and Steve Schmoll (the throw-in from the Duaner Sanchez-Jae Seo deal). My best guess is that Ring and Bell will make the team out of the spring.

One last piece of good (but old) news: Carl Pavano can't throw off a mound for another week. He's certainly worth $40 million!