Defeat the Empire

There's been alot of sentiment going around in Metsville about how Billy Wagner's been a disappointment. This sentiment isn't entirely justified.

One of the most inaccurate ways to measure the effectiveness of a closer is to look at saves and save percentage. Case in point: in Wagner's largest meltdown of the season, on May 20th against the Yankees when he blew a 4-0 lead, Wagner didn't receive a blown save. But he did receive a blown save on April 26th at San Francisco, when he didn't give up an earned run.

Wagner has been worse than he was with Philadelphia, but not because he has more blown saves. The most concerning stats about Wagner are his walk rate and men on base/9 innings. Wagner has walked 17 men in 36.2 innings. That's just three less than he walked in 77.2 innings in 2005. He also has allowed 11.0 men on base per nine innings, a sharp increase from 7.3 in 2004 and 7.9 in 2005.

Still, there are encouraging signs. Wagner's stuff is as dominant as ever, as evidenced by his .191 batting average against, .260 slugging percentage against, and his 46 strikeouts in 36.2 innings. If and when he throws strikes, he's next to unhittable.

Now to point out how useless the saves stat is. Both ahead of Wagner on the NL saves leaderboard are Jason Isringhausen and Brad Lidge. Isringhausen has a 4.06 ERA, 14.5 men on base/9 innings, and a .420 slugging percentage against. Lidge has a 5.55 ERA, 13.9 men on base/9 innings, and a .387 slugging percentage against. Would you honestly rather have either of these guys over Wagner?

So while Wagner has had his share of meltdowns and problems throwing strikes, he remains an above average closer. All Mets closers, dating back to Armando Benitez and Braden Looper, have lived in the shadow of the best closer ever, Mariano Rivera. That's why it always seems the Mets have terrible pitchers closing out games. This simply is untrue, as Benitez was an above average closer for his whole tenure here, Looper was an above average closer in 2004, and Wagner is an above average closer in 2006. Be patient.

...the St. Louis Cardinals aren't built all that well for a postseason series.

Tonight, they're in the middle of a massive drubbing courtesy of the defend champion White Sox. Mark Mulder got rocked. He came into the game 6-4, 5.32 with an opponents' batting average of .296 and an opponents slugging percentage at a very poor .510. It got worse against the ChiSox, as he allowed 9 ER, 10 H, and 2 HR and recorded just 7 outs. This raised his ERA to a lofty 6.09.

The rest of the St. Louis starters behind unquestioned ace Chris Carpenter scare nobody. Sidney Ponson had a run at a renaissance earlier in the season, but has since fallen off a table and looks to be temporarily relegated to the bullpen. Jason Marquis has been solid to this point, but the fact that he has more BB's than K's is a troubling harbinger that may catch up with him soon. And Jeff Suppan is what he is: Steve Trachsel, but worse.

The Cards do have a very impressive rookie pitcher in Adam Wainwright, who has worked out of the bullpen. My friend, a Cardinal fan, wants Wainwright to replace Jason Isringhausen as the team's closer. The team likely would be better served with Wainwright in the rotation, and that day may not be far off. Mulder isn't going anywhere, but Suppan might get bumped and Ponson might already have been. Wainwright would be an instant upgrade over either of those two, or at least so it seems. The Cards' other top prospect is Anthony Reyes, a pitcher, who will likely see action in the rotation again soon. Reyes has posted an impressive 2.49 ERA in 25.1 career MLB innings.

While the Cards may look to rookies to stabilize their rotation, the Mets already have. Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine have hit rough patches here in June, but the team still wins more often than not when the two pitch. And the bottom three; Orlando Hernandez, Alay Soler, and Steve Trachsel, have stepped up considerably. Soler looks like a workhorse, middle-of-the-rotation type starter and has pitched wonderfully in his 5 starts. El Duque has pitched to a 3.91 ERA with the Mets after posting a 6.04 ERA with Arizona. And Trachsel, who I left for dead earlier in the year, has strung together some solid, keep-the-team-in-the-game outings and now has won three straight starts.

It's easy to slug your way into the playoffs, but it doesn't work that way once you get there. The Cards may learn that this October if they face the Mets, who look to have the current edge among National League superpowers into June of 2006. But look out for the Houston Astros. If they make the playoffs, which is hardly a give at this point, they can be dangerous. If Andy Pettitte gets back on track (and it looks that he has begun to do so), Roy Oswalt remains Roy Oswalt, and Roger Clemens picks up where he left off in 2005, the Astros could defeat either NL superpower in a short series and claim a second straight pennant.

Hell, sometimes, a pitcher just shuts you down, and one of the National League's best did so to the Mets tonight. But tonight was a bit more frustrating, for a variety of reasons.

First, I didn't know who to root for in the Philly/Yankee game. I still don't. The Phillies are way back in the NL East as of now, but I like that 10-game loss column cushion. Yet, the instinctual hatred of the Yankees usually got the best of me as I flipped to YES between innings of the Met game.

Second, Arroyo should be in Boston. The trade dealing him for Wily Mo Pena was retarded, I said that at the time, and I'll say it again. Granted, Arroyo's ERA wouldn't be 2.47 if he was dealing in the AL East, but he'd still probably be Boston's best starter. He'd certainly be a marked improvement over some of the retreads that have taken the hill for Beantown in '06.

And third, I hate the bunt in the first inning with Reyes on second and nobody out. Why hand a pitcher an out when he hasn't proven he can get one? And why his Lo Duca second in the order if he can't be trusted to swing away in the 1st inning? Lo Duca hardly ever strikes out and can hit the ball to the right side on cue, so it makes little sense to me to bunt, give away the out and take any any chance of a base hit from Lo Duca.

I might catch some flak for this, but I don't like Lo Duca. He entered tonight's game with a hitting percentage line of .280/.325/.385. (All three are a tick lower after an 0-for-3 from him tonight.) The last two, which incidently are the most important two, indicate Lo Duca is below league average in slugging percentage and on base percentage. There's absolutely no reason for a 34-year-old with no speed and a .320 OBP to be batting second. I don't want to hear BS about how he can take a pitch for Reyes to steal, either; that isn't an instinctive skill, and can be learned by just about any baseball player within a few ABs.

But hell, we're still 43-26 and in the driver's seat. It's just that we could be and should be better.

A long time ago, a now over-the-hill golfer name Eldrick won four major championships in a row. No, due to a technicality, it wasn't a grand slam, but he still held all four titles at the same time.

And at that time, Phil couldn't win shit. He'd come close, he'd have four foot puts for birdie lined up at Augusta, but he wouldn't come through. He was a loveable loser, like the Chicago Cubs or the English World Cup team.

But here in contemporary 2006, tables are turned. Instead of chasing down a major championship, Eldrick is on a bed somewhere with Elin Nordegren watching the people's champion chase down a third consecutive major title.

Of course, we've got some golf left to be played. But who honestly doesn't think Mickelson's going to win this golf tournament? He's 3-0 in majors when leading or having a share of the lead entering the final round, and he's tied now with Kenneth Ferrie of England at +2. Oh, and an European hasn't won this tournament since 1970, a stat stacked against the volatile Ferrie.

The good golfers are further back in the field. Vijay Singh is a +5, three off the pace, and Jim Furyk is at +6. Those two guys have the ability to mount a charge.

But, hell, who doesn't think Phil's going to win at this point? Quite a role reversal fron four years ago, when I followed Phil around Bethpage when he couldn't quite catch Eldrick for an elusive first. Here in '06, he's five rounds away from the Tiger Slam.

Go Phil!