Defeat the Empire

There's been alot of sentiment going around in Metsville about how Billy Wagner's been a disappointment. This sentiment isn't entirely justified.

One of the most inaccurate ways to measure the effectiveness of a closer is to look at saves and save percentage. Case in point: in Wagner's largest meltdown of the season, on May 20th against the Yankees when he blew a 4-0 lead, Wagner didn't receive a blown save. But he did receive a blown save on April 26th at San Francisco, when he didn't give up an earned run.

Wagner has been worse than he was with Philadelphia, but not because he has more blown saves. The most concerning stats about Wagner are his walk rate and men on base/9 innings. Wagner has walked 17 men in 36.2 innings. That's just three less than he walked in 77.2 innings in 2005. He also has allowed 11.0 men on base per nine innings, a sharp increase from 7.3 in 2004 and 7.9 in 2005.

Still, there are encouraging signs. Wagner's stuff is as dominant as ever, as evidenced by his .191 batting average against, .260 slugging percentage against, and his 46 strikeouts in 36.2 innings. If and when he throws strikes, he's next to unhittable.

Now to point out how useless the saves stat is. Both ahead of Wagner on the NL saves leaderboard are Jason Isringhausen and Brad Lidge. Isringhausen has a 4.06 ERA, 14.5 men on base/9 innings, and a .420 slugging percentage against. Lidge has a 5.55 ERA, 13.9 men on base/9 innings, and a .387 slugging percentage against. Would you honestly rather have either of these guys over Wagner?

So while Wagner has had his share of meltdowns and problems throwing strikes, he remains an above average closer. All Mets closers, dating back to Armando Benitez and Braden Looper, have lived in the shadow of the best closer ever, Mariano Rivera. That's why it always seems the Mets have terrible pitchers closing out games. This simply is untrue, as Benitez was an above average closer for his whole tenure here, Looper was an above average closer in 2004, and Wagner is an above average closer in 2006. Be patient.